Striking Iran Again - Setting Off an Arms Race /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Overview

Daniel Davis argues that renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran could trigger a much broader conflict and accelerate nuclear proliferation. He says Iranian officials have threatened an “immediate and unrestricted” response, potentially targeting a wider range of military and commercial sites.

Davis highlights undersea internet cables in the Persian Gulf, warning that damage to them could disrupt international commerce. He also says Western and Israeli businesses across the region could be at risk.

Iran’s Preparations and Regional Aims

Davis sees Iran as preparing for another round of fighting rather than relying on the ceasefire. He argues that Iran has had time to replenish its weapons and improve its military capabilities, and that wartime innovation can advance much faster than peacetime development.

He also points to Iran’s stated ambitions for a new regional security order, suggesting that its aims may extend beyond simply surviving the conflict.

Prospects for Diplomacy

Davis questions whether negotiations can succeed, citing what he describes as repeated US reversals: abandoning the JCPOA and launching strikes during later negotiations. He says Iran has rejected a “carrot and stick” approach and set conditions for progress. In his view, past US actions have made Tehran unlikely to trust new overtures.

Nuclear Concerns

Davis points to statements by Iranian religious and political figures advocating withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and a change in nuclear doctrine. He argues that continued attacks may push Iran toward acquiring a nuclear weapon—the outcome, he says, US policy claims to be trying to prevent.

He cites expert assessments that earlier strikes did not eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities and speculates that Iran may be able to develop a deliverable weapon quickly. He acknowledges that whether Iran already has one is unknown.

Costs and Claims About the War

Davis challenges President Trump’s account of the war’s costs and results. He cites a Pentagon estimate of up to $47 billion in costs, along with casualties and other effects on US personnel.

He disputes Trump’s claim that revenue from Venezuelan oil has more than compensated for the spending. Davis estimates the revenue at roughly $20 billion so far and says most of it is going to Venezuela’s oil sector.

Davis also notes that US intelligence officials had said Iran had not rebuilt its nuclear program after the earlier strikes, while arguing that subsequent events make its current status uncertain.

Criticism of Hawks and US Policy

Davis criticizes hawkish arguments that war was necessary to prevent a greater future threat. He says those arguments omit relevant history and overlook how prior actions by the US and its partners contributed to regional conflict.

He argues that the United States should leave its Middle Eastern bases in a planned, coordinated way rather than risk being driven out by force. He warns that striking Iran again could encourage other countries to pursue nuclear weapons and set off a wider arms race.

Presenters, Contributors, and Other Commentators

• Presenter: Daniel Davis
• Interviewed: An unnamed Marine general
• Cited as experts or contributors: Professor Marandi, Ted Postol, Larry Wilkerson, and Joe Kent
• Other commentators discussed: Generals Jack Keane and Kellogg