회사가 돈을 이렇게 많이 버는데 주식은 왜 떨어지나요?! [주식 기초 특강 2탄]

Summary

The lesson explains why strong company earnings do not necessarily translate into rising share prices. Prices depend not only on profits, but also on valuations, the balance of buyers and sellers, interest rates, and foreign-investor flows. Korean semiconductor companies are described as earning exceptionally well, yet their shares may still struggle if buying demand is insufficient.

A major theme is that interest rates shape the relative appeal and pricing of many assets. Higher rates can draw money toward deposits and bonds, weigh on equities and gold, and increase borrowing costs. Lower rates can encourage investment and spending, but may also contribute to inflation. The discussion also covers how banks create credit, why bank runs can become systemic crises, and how exchange rates affect returns for investors holding foreign assets.

Assets, Companies, and Instruments Mentioned

• Equities and companies: Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, Nvidia, Kioxia, Oracle, Saudi Aramco, and Japanese and U.S. small-cap stocks.
• Indexes and funds: S&P 500, gold ETFs, and a leveraged product transcribed as “QLB”; the ticker is unclear in the subtitles.
• Bonds and cash: U.S. Treasuries, including the 10-year Treasury; bank deposits; the Korean National Pension Service and other pension funds.
• Currencies and commodities: U.S. dollar, Korean won, Japanese yen, and gold.

Key Points and Figures

The speaker says a group of Korean companies—apparently referring to major semiconductor firms—reported about ₩107 trillion in earnings or profit for a recent period, and estimates roughly ₩350 trillion for 2026. The exact companies, accounting measure, and period are unclear in the auto-generated subtitles.

Other figures cited include:

• Aramco: Previously set a record of about ₩120 trillion in quarterly profit.
• Interest rates: The speaker says rates had risen to their highest level since 2002, though the specific rate measure is unclear.
• U.S. Treasury yield: The 10-year yield is quoted at about 5.3%, compared with a bank deposit rate of roughly 2.5%.
• Rates in Korea and Japan: Korean interest rates are quoted at about 3.5%, and Japan’s at about 1.25%. The precise measures and timing are not specified.
• Pension-fund returns: The speaker gives a Korean pension-fund return target of roughly 7–8% a year, describing that as a strong result.
• U.S. money supply: Said to have increased about eightfold since 2006. The speaker connects abundant money with inflation and falling purchasing power.
• Gold: Discussed at roughly $4,100, after a move from around $3,000 to $4,000, a further rise toward $4,500, and a subsequent pullback. The sequence and figures are approximate and somewhat inconsistent in the subtitles.
• Currency examples: The yen is said to have moved from roughly ₩940 to ₩845 per ¥100, and the dollar is quoted at about ₩1,385, compared with a prior level around ₩1,570. The direction and reference periods are not always clear.
• S&P 500 returns: The speaker says the index has recently returned around 11%, with a long-run average of about 8%. These are presented as broad historical figures, not a forecast.

Frameworks and Investing Lessons

• Why earnings may not lift a stock: Consider company results alongside valuation, market supply and demand, and whether new buyers—particularly foreign investors—are entering the market.
• How rates affect markets: Higher rates can make deposits and bonds more attractive, reduce money available for risk assets, and raise the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings. Lower rates can encourage spending and investment, but may also add inflationary pressure.
• How bank lending works: The lesson offers a simplified explanation of fractional-reserve banking and capital requirements. It says Korean banks generally operate with a BIS capital ratio around 12–15% and links high leverage to systemic risk if depositors withdraw funds faster than loans can be recovered.
• How bond yields and prices move: Higher market yields generally mean lower prices for existing bonds, while falling yields tend to raise their prices. A 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of 5.3% is presented as making bonds more competitive with gold and other assets.
• Long-term equity investing: The speaker favors investing steadily in the S&P 500, comparing regular contributions to a savings plan rather than trying to time a single entry point.
• Portfolio behavior: One participant says they are accumulating stocks gradually while watching per-share profit and exchange rates. The group also discusses holding cash and avoiding impulsive use of leverage.

Risks, Cautions, and Disclosures

Participants describe recent losses, exchange-rate effects on dollar-denominated holdings, and the emotional pressure to sell.

The instructor cautions that interest rates could rise more than expected, especially for borrowers, and warns against assuming markets will keep rising after a strong run.

The discussion characterizes U.S. Treasuries as “risk-free,” but that is an oversimplification: bond prices can fluctuate, and realized returns depend on factors such as whether the bond is held to maturity and the investor’s currency exposure.

The video closes with the disclaimer that investment decisions are each investor’s own choice. No formal “not financial advice” statement is clearly given in the subtitles.

Presenters and Sources

The on-screen discussion includes Woojung (Woo Jung-ing), Jang Ji-soo, Nuheungji/Nuji, Gakdoi, and the instructor, identified in the subtitles as Park Do-gi or “Protractor.”

Sources and institutions referenced include the Bank of Korea, the BIS, the U.S. Treasury, the Korean National Pension Service, and Warren Buffett.