Tutorial Terbaik, Trading Dengan Moving Average

Summary

The presenter compares a basic moving-average crossover strategy with a breakout strategy that waits for consolidation. His main point is that percentage gain alone can be misleading: position size, stop-loss distance, risk per trade, and the effect on total portfolio equity matter more than a headline “bagger” return.

Trading framework

• Basic signal: Track the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. A golden cross, where the MA20 moves above the MA50, is treated as evidence of improving upward momentum. The MA20 below the MA50 is described as weak momentum.
• Avoid relying on the crossover alone: After a golden cross, look for a healthy pullback or tight consolidation. The examples describe constructive consolidation as having small candles and generally below-average volume.
• Entry: Plan a buy above a clear resistance or consolidation breakout level, potentially using an automatic order. The presenter prefers this to chasing a large candle or buying solely because a golden cross occurred.
• Stop placement: Set the stop below nearby support or a swing low. A closer, chart-based stop can allow a larger position for the same preset dollar risk.
• Position sizing: Choose the number of shares based on how much you are willing to lose if the stop is hit—not on a desired percentage gain or a desire to invest a fixed fraction of the portfolio.
• Optional filters: Criteria such as consolidation patterns, RSI, stochastic, MACD, the Williams indicator, or Fibonacci levels may help reduce the number of potential trades and improve selectivity. These are presented as optional filters, not required rules.

The presenter argues that broker-flow or “bandarmology” analysis is not necessary to interpret rising prices. In his view, rising prices indicate stronger buying appetite, while volume and price action can help assess pullbacks.

Examples and key figures

All examples use Rp100 million in starting capital and a stated 0.5% risk per trade, or Rp500,000. These are the presenter’s chart examples, not a verified performance record.

SSIA

• The MA20 was below the MA50 from February to mid-May 2025. A golden cross occurred on May 22, 2025.
• The price rose from 700 to 960 by May 22—about 33%—and later closed at 1,780 on July 3, roughly 85% above 960.
• For a crossover-based entry at 960 with a stop at 800, the risk is about 16.7% per share. With the stated risk budget, the presenter estimates a maximum position of 30 lots, worth about Rp2.9 million (around 3% of the portfolio). The example’s eventual profit is about Rp2.5 million, despite the large stock-price percentage gain.
• An alternative breakout entry at 1,060, above resistance at 1,055, uses a stop at 995. The presenter estimates 72 lots and a profit of about Rp2.5 million if the price reaches 1,420. He says this outcome could be reached in about six candles, compared with roughly 25 candles for the first example to reach its cited profit.
• The comparison illustrates his argument that a tighter stop can permit a larger position and deliver a similar portfolio-level gain sooner, even if the stock’s percentage rise is smaller.

TOBA

• A golden cross occurred on May 8, 2025. The crossover example waits for a later large green candle, entering at 472 with a stop around 392. The presenter estimates 61 lots, about Rp2.8 million invested, and roughly Rp2.9 million in profit if the price reaches 955.
• In the consolidation-breakout example, the entry is 422 after a tight, low-volume consolidation, with a stop at 388. The presenter estimates 139 lots, about Rp5.8 million invested. If the price reaches 635, the example also produces about Rp2.9 million in profit—approximately 2.9% of the Rp100 million portfolio—in around 12 candles, versus about 17 candles in the first example.
• A subtitle line describes the risk as “12% of total equity,” which conflicts with the repeated 0.5% per-trade risk assumption and the Rp500,000 stop-loss examples. That figure appears inconsistent or mistranscribed.

BNLI

• The presenter identifies a VCP-style tight consolidation and plans a breakout entry at 2,460, above resistance at 2,450, with a stop at 2,340—a stop distance of less than 5%.
• With the same Rp500,000 risk budget, he estimates 38 lots, worth about Rp9.3 million or 9% of equity.
• In the example, entering on June 19 and selling at 3,260 on June 26 (about five candles later) would produce approximately Rp3 million, or about six times the stated per-trade risk.
• He says he did not buy BNLI because its average daily traded value as of June 18 was low; the subtitle omits the actual value. He cautions that illiquidity can make it difficult to exit, including during an adverse or limit-down move.

Risk management and portfolio points

• The presenter repeatedly emphasizes portfolio impact rather than the percentage return on an individual stock.
• With a Rp500,000 risk budget per trade, 10 consecutive stopped-out trades would cost Rp5 million, leaving Rp95 million of the original Rp100 million, before other costs or changes in position values.
• A wide stop can constrain position size: the SSIA crossover example allocates only about 3% of equity. The presenter says that repeatedly holding many such small positions—illustrated as 30–33 names at roughly Rp3 million each—can complicate portfolio monitoring and make drawdowns stressful.
• He recommends adding filters to narrow the trade list and cautions against using margin or taking too many positions without a clear plan.
• Liquidity is an explicit risk: a technically attractive setup may still be unsuitable if there is not enough trading activity to enter and exit reliably.

Market context, disclosures, and sources

• The presenter refers to a market selloff amid the Trump-tariff trade war, saying the market was down about 15% year to date. He also claims the “Dragon Footprint” performance was flat during that period. This is his stated comparison, not independently verified in the subtitles.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears. The examples are historical chart illustrations and should not be taken as assured or repeatable returns.
• Presenter/source: Jie Kusumo (also referred to in the subtitles as “Koji” or “KJI”). He references Angka Bicara/Trading Angka membership materials and his YouTube videos on Mark Minervini’s VCP strategy.