Rick Rule Says Gold Mining Stocks Have Never Been Cheaper – Rule Classroom Plus

Executive summary

Rick Rule’s central view is that a weak market may create better entry points for resource investors and more favorable terms for investors financing junior miners. He said gold-mining shares were at their lowest relative valuations in his career when measured against the net present value of future cash flows at current gold prices—not that they were cheap in absolute terms.

He also discussed how he evaluates companies, manages portfolio decisions, and plans to expand his research and subscription products.

Strategies and operating playbooks

• Value investing with downside scenarios: Rule’s main decision framework is the gap between a company’s share price and estimated value. He looks for investments with meaningful upside and limited downside.
• Commodity-price stress testing: For rough valuations, he uses a three-case matrix: a forward-price curve, a bullish case 25% above it, and a bearish case 25% below it. He prefers forward curves to relying solely on paid commodity forecasts.
• Buying into selloffs: He is willing to buy during sharp declines, accepting that a share may fall further after purchase. His emphasis is on the eventual price-versus-value outcome, not precise market timing.
• Tax-loss harvesting: He sometimes realizes a loss and waits 31 days before repurchasing a security, while cautioning that tax considerations should not override investment decisions.
• Financing junior miners: Rule believes the financing window for junior companies has tightened after a period when some raised capital easily. He expects to receive more financing approaches and said his direct purchase updates may increase over the next three months if markets remain weak.
• Research-database development: His team is trying to monitor roughly 800 stocks, though the work can run about five weeks behind. The plan is to remove around 60–70 companies judged to have little value and potentially add about 30. If a larger research team comes together, Rule said a more systematic database—and possibly paid, continuously updated access—could follow.
• Active versus passive ownership: Rule’s real-estate example was that distressed assets may suit experienced operators who can fix operating problems, but rising rates are a headwind for passive investors.

Metrics, targets, and timelines

• Gold equities: Rule described them as the cheapest he has seen relative to projected cash flows at current gold prices, using enterprise value in the comparison.
• Physical gold: He said he planned to spend nearly all after-tax proceeds from a conference on physical gold.
• Silver equities: He had reinvested 50% of the proceeds from selling physical silver into silver stocks and planned to build those positions through year-end, possibly until PDAC in early March.
• Nickel: Rule cited laterite production costs rising about 25% in two years and expected the nickel price—then around US$16,500–16,600 per tonne—to potentially move above US$20,000.
• Uranium: He cited term-market activity around US$99–100 per pound versus a spot price near US$91. A questioner referenced uranium trusts and stocks being valued using prices below the current market; Rule broadly agreed that uranium equities reflected lower prices.
• Company ratings: Cameco 5; Paladin Energy 5; Ivanhoe Mines 4; Empress Royalty 5; White Gold 5, with a possible move to 4 if its share price fell further; Hemlo 5. These are Rule’s assessments, not universal measures.
• Rule portfolio: Rule said he was targeting a January 1 launch for a real-money portfolio newsletter. Subscribers would receive same-day notices of his purchases and sales.
• Conference results: Rule reported roughly 1,000 in-person attendees, more than 2,300 livestream passes, and about 300 recording sales for the 2026 event. Based on the information available to him, there had been three refund requests from livestream viewers and none from in-person attendees or recording purchasers. The next symposium was planned for early July 2027 in Boca Raton.

Company and case-study highlights

• Pan American Silver: Asked about the company’s valuation, Rule said he expected to be a buyer during the calendar year.
• Meteoric Resources and Lynas: Rule would have preferred Meteoric to remain independent, citing the deposit’s scale and potential upside, but considered the takeover fair. He noted a 40% premium to the 30-day VWAP and said he planned to accept Lynas shares.
• Centaurus Metals: Rule said the funding was necessary and oversubscribed, though he would have preferred a larger raise. He expects the company to trade higher over the next two to three years. Glencore’s interest was a positive, but he stressed that feasibility work, infrastructure, and approvals remained.
• Nickel-sulfide projects: Based on recent observations in Indonesia, Rule argued that environmental damage and energy demands could raise laterite costs and improve the relative position of high-quality sulfide deposits.
• Cameco and Paladin Energy: Rule lowered Cameco’s rating after a major share-price rise and kept Paladin at 5 pending better operating performance. For Paladin, he wants to see improved sustaining costs reflected in both the income statement and balance sheet. Cameco’s older, lower-priced uranium contracts begin expiring in 2027, which could affect realized prices.
• NG Energy: Rule interpreted CEO Keith Hill’s open-market share purchase as a response to an attractive price, not evidence that a deal was imminent. He sees the Colombian business as meaningful on its own, with speculative upside from Venezuela, while emphasizing the political uncertainty there.
• ATEX Resources and Vizsla Copper: Rule remained positive on ATEX as its falling share price improved its appeal. He said new drilling results had changed his earlier, more skeptical view of Vizsla Copper, which he did not own.
• Ivanhoe Mines: Rule upgraded the company to 4, citing the share-price decline, expected cash flow from zinc and planned Platreef production, as well as exploration potential. He also flagged worsening political conditions in the DRC.
• Empress Royalty and Alamos Gold: Rule downgraded Empress to 5 after a strong share-price rise, while praising its management and competitive position. He called Alamos a high-quality, low-cost producer and said he would consider buying if the share price fell significantly.
• White Gold and Hemlo: White Gold’s rating could improve if its share price continued to weaken, though infrastructure remains a challenge. Rule described Hemlo’s exploration potential positively but downgraded it to 5 following a share-price decline.
• Elemental Royalty: Rule thought the sale of its generative business could benefit the share price in the short term by cutting administrative costs, but weaken the company over time by removing a technical capability that he viewed as a competitive advantage.
• Other names: Rule said he was a small shareholder in Dora Gold but cautioned that its exploration assets were high-risk. He did not have enough information to assess Galloway Metals, Aphaia Energy, or Silver 47. Gladiator Metals and Goliath Resources were not yet rated.
• Norilsk Nickel: Rule warned that unscheduled maintenance could reflect years of deferred capital investment, potentially affecting palladium and platinum supply.

Presenters and sources

Presenters: Steve Burton (host) and Rick Rule.

Other sources and references discussed: Rule Classroom and Rule Classroom Plus; Asymmetric Research; Wood Mackenzie; S&P Global; Lobo Tigre; and company management and project information referenced during the Q&A.