Video summary

今夜警戒！サンリオ下落、その理由。トヨタが安値。任天堂も安値。一気に配当２倍に増配した銘柄。～あす上がる株　2026年６月２５日（木）に上がる銘柄。最新の日本株情報。高配当株の株価やデイトレ情報

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Market & macro backdrop (risk tone / drivers)

US stocks

  • Dow: -0.09% to 50,166
  • Nasdaq: -2.21% to 25,587
    • Theme: sell-off in tech/AI.

Japan stocks

  • Nikkei 225: -0.88% to 69,174
  • Intraday note: brief rebound near 1:30 PM, but momentum faded.

Currencies & rates

  • USD/JPY: ~161
  • US 10Y yield: ~4.4%
  • Japan benchmark yield: ~2.66%

Commodities & volatility

  • Crude oil: ~$71 (down)
  • VIX: rose to 19.49
    • Still described as “optimistic.”

Macro/data

  • “Gradient Personnel PMI” (manufacturing + services) beat expectations.

Key narrative driving equities

  • Concern about the sustainability of massive AI investment.
  • Concern the Fed is overzealous → pressure on AI-related stocks.
  • Semiconductor supply shock: SK Hynix curtailed HBM chip production, pressuring related names.
  • Japan-specific watch item: Micron earnings tonight (risk to the AI supply chain).

Index/sector performance notes

Stock breadth (as of midday)

  • 715 up / 796 down / 45 flat

Industry leaders/laggards (Japan)

  • Pharmaceuticals: +1.14% (buyers stepping in)
  • Insurance: -3.97% (largest decliner; attributed to major players selling together)

One-off Nikkei impact

  • Tokyo Electron alone contributed about -307 yen to the Nikkei.

Tickers / instruments mentioned

Indexes & benchmarks

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average
  • Nasdaq, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100
  • Nikkei 225
  • VIX
  • Box Index (points mentioned; likely a domestic market breadth/valuation proxy)
  • Nikkei 225 futures

FX / rates / macro instruments

  • US 10-year yield
  • USD/JPY
  • Crude oil (WTI/Brent not specified)

US/Global single names (as seen in subtitles)

  • NVIA (name appears garbled; context suggests a tech/AI-ish stock)
  • Micron (earnings risk headline)

Japan stocks explicitly discussed

  • Toyota
  • Nintendo
  • SoftBank Group / SoftBank (also referenced in strategy discussion)
  • Fujikura
  • T&D Holdings
  • Mitsui & Co.
  • Mitsukoshi Isetan
  • Yamaha Motor
  • PayPay (ticker appears as “PayP / Payp” — exact ticker not provided)
  • Harrows (likely Harrows Ltd.; JP ticker not provided)
  • Links (IPO mentioned; ticker not provided)
  • Blue (name appears as “blue”; exact ticker not provided)
  • Nippon Chori-ki / Japan Cooking Machinery (stock split + limit-up mention)
  • Infometis, Nippon Cooking Machine RSC (name variations)
  • Tameny Succeed
  • Option I / AssetVALU (stake announcement; tickers not provided)
  • JA Japan Display (daily move mention)
  • Konami Group
  • Mitsukoshi Kosaku (name appears garbled; appears distinct from Mitsukoshi Isetan)
  • A range of other names mentioned with partial/garbled spelling, including:
    • Panasonic, Sharp, Daido Metal, Kadokawa, Trial Holdings
    • Askul, Kanto Electric Power, FIG, Nichika (partial/garbled)
    • Resonaq, IbiDensetsu, Trichemical Laboratory, Stella Chemifa, Shikoku Mars

Semiconductor / electronics components set (Japan)

  • Murata
  • Taiyo Yuden
  • TDK
  • Nippon Kagaku Kogyo (or similar)
  • Nihon Dempa Kogyo
  • Yamaichi Electric
  • Nadex
  • Hirose Electric
  • Inspec
  • AGC
  • Shin-Etsu Chemical
  • Industrial (name garbled)
  • Tsuchida Industries, Sake Science, Toyo, Ishihara Industries (partial/garbled)

Oil/energy & defense-linked (Japan)

  • INPEX
  • Japan Petroleum Exploration
  • Cosmo Energy
  • ENEOS
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
  • Kawasaki Heavy Industries
  • JAL (Japan Airlines)
  • IHI
  • Other defense/energy peers mentioned with unclear spelling (garbled names).

Corporate actions / listing items

  • 4-for-1 stock split: Nippon Chori-ki (Japan Cooking Machinery)
    • Mentions of other splits appear as well, but details are limited.
  • IPO: Links (went public “yesterday” / “second day of listing”)
  • Going concern / deadline extension rumor:
    • “Hamney removed its medium-term statement regarding going concern”
    • Company considering extension of securities report deadline (ticker not specified)

Key numbers & explicit recommendations/cautions

Dividend / risk framing

“Please note that many of them are not trustworthy.” (appears multiple times across stock reviews)

Dividend-focused examples (Japan)

  • Yamaha Motor

    • Dividend yield: ~4.1% (Prime)
    • Market cap: ~1.2 trillion yen
    • Dividend schedule: 25 yen (June) + 25 yen (Dec) = 50 yen annually
    • Fundamentals: net profit +35% YoY (first quarter, fiscal year ending Jan–Mar); first-quarter profit progress 41.3%
    • Technical notes: mixed (RSI ~50, MACD unclear, Bollinger no clear signal)
    • Price / volume: ~1223 yen; ~4.49M shares
    • Valuation note: “not cheap, but dividend yield makes it attractive.”

  • Polaris Holdings (hotels)

    • Dividend yield: ~5.95% / ~6.0%
    • Price: 168 yen
    • Dividend adjustment referenced (details partial)

  • Harrows

    • Dividend yield: 1.94% (low)
    • Described as having “relatively high earning power”
    • Market cap: 79.9 billion yen
    • Price: 3720 yen
    • Margin-heavy ownership noted: roughly 80% on margin

  • SoftBank (contrarian dividend + trend framing)

    • “pay-related” stock dividend yield cited ~4.3%
    • Split into two times per year: 4.4 yen (Sep) + 4.4 yen (Dec)
    • SoftBank described as a contrarian candidate; also discussed as entering a downward trend after peak sell-off.

Oversold / rebound setups (tactical)

Rebound watch (tomorrow)

  • T&D Holdings
    • Down: -5.74%
    • Labeled oversold / profit-taking after a prior rise
    • “Chance of rebound,” but decline could continue.

Oversold RSI list (rebound candidates)

  • Mitsui & Co.: -1.63%, RSI 12.5
  • Konami Group: -2.31%, RSI 19.0
  • Mitsukoshi Kosaku: -1.36%, RSI 17.0

Large-cap hitting year-low (examples)

  • Toyota: -0.74% (year-low referenced)
  • Nintendo: -0.85% (year-low referenced)
  • SoftBank: -0.15% (lowest “national price” / year-low phrasing)
  • Nesira (garbled; likely another large-cap) also referenced near lows.

Short-selling / technical caution

  • Several names described as potential short-term trading targets due to chart structure and downside momentum.
  • Caution example framing: Toyota / Fujikura / Nintendo / SoftBank as “lowest of the year” and/or capped by the 25-day moving average.
  • “Direction toward lowering Fujii and AI-related stocks” (Fujikura context; “Fujii” likely a garbled name).

Crypto / other asset classes

  • No crypto ETFs or coins explicitly mentioned in the subtitles.

Methodology / step-by-step framework referenced

The host follows a repeating “daily stock selection” workflow. Steps appear in roughly this order:

  1. IR announcements and company filings
  2. Earnings reports / IRs
  3. Today’s movers (up/down)
  4. Top gainers from the prior day
  5. Limit-up / limit-down rankings
  6. Stocks expected to rebound tomorrow
  7. Sharp decliners today
  8. Likely rebound soon candidates
  9. Newly listed stocks
  10. Stock split schedule
  11. Earnings schedule
  12. Dividend-related information
  13. Dividend ex/after-dividend distribution notes
  14. Top news-driven stocks
  15. Stocks pressured by activist selling (contrarian screening)
  16. Contrarian vs trend-following stocks
  17. Potential rebound stocks and short-selling candidates (“short-selling stocks”)

Selection tools used (for specific picks)

  • Dividend yield ranking (monthly/annual comparisons)
  • RSI, MACD
  • Ichimoku (Ichimoku Kinko)
  • Bollinger Bands
  • 25-day moving average
  • “Parabolic lights” (likely Parabolic SAR)
  • RSI threshold oversold logic (e.g., ~12–19)
  • Event-driven catalysts: earnings, splits, dividends, IPO timing, activist/institutional stake changes

Timeline / calendar events mentioned

  • Targeting Thursday, June 25, 2026 (tomorrow as the trading day).
  • Stock split schedule: “31 items total”
    • July: 6 cases
    • August: 2 cases
    • September: 14 cases
    • June details span across 3 pages.
  • Dividend event dates:
    • June ex-dividend / dividend-related references; “this Friday” treated as a deadline-type day
    • July 29 (Wednesday): “last day of prefectural school” (used as a timing anchor in the dividend context)
  • Earnings calendar:
    • “Two-week financial closing schedule” referenced
    • Tomorrow (Japan): Oracle (name garbled) alongside “Digital Pharma…” (earnings cluster)
  • IPO schedule:
    • June 30: “Nays” (garbled name)
    • July 15: ChatPlus
  • Index update mention:
    • “NJPW rankings updated on June 30” (not clearly finance-related, but included as scheduled information)

Disclosures / presenters

  • Disclosures: none explicitly stated as “not financial advice” in the provided subtitles excerpt.
  • Repeated caution phrasing appears in the stock commentary (e.g., “not trustworthy”).
  • Sources mentioned: Bloomberg article (referenced for reports/rumors such as “additional 30 billion yen”).
  • No individual presenter name appears in the excerpt.

Original video