O MITO do ROMBO DAS ESTATAIS (os Coaches te enganaram)

Summary

The presenter challenges the claim that Brazil’s federal state-owned companies are collectively running at a loss. His central point is that the result depends on which companies and indicators are included: a Central Bank measure that excludes major companies can show losses, but he argues this is not the same as the performance of the full group.

He also argues that financial profit is not the only relevant measure for state-owned businesses. Some entities provide public services—such as universal mail delivery or food security—that may justify operating at a loss. That does not, in his view, excuse poor management: companies should still be run efficiently and judged against their purpose.

Frameworks and Business Takeaways

• Define the scope before interpreting a metric: Specify which companies are included, what is excluded, and what the indicator measures. A partial measure should not be presented as the result for the entire group.
• Separate financial performance from public-service outcomes: Assess a state-owned company against both its financial results and its service mandate, including whether it reaches unprofitable locations or supports food security.
• Diagnose causes before assigning credit or blame: Examine demand, policy changes, market conditions, and management decisions rather than attributing results to one leader or administration.
• Treat efficiency and mission as compatible goals: A public-service company need not maximize profit, but it still needs competent operations and oversight.
• Evaluate privatization by outcomes: Compare service coverage, prices, reliability, and efficiency—not only the buyer’s profitability or the government’s sale proceeds.

Metrics Cited

The figures below are claims made by the presenter, based on the database and comparisons he discusses:

• Brazil has about 44 federal state-owned entities or groups.
• The full group reportedly earned R$169 billion in profit in 2025.
• In the presenter’s breakdown, 28 companies were profitable and 14 reported losses.
• Excluding six major companies—including Petrobras, BNDES, Banco do Brasil, and Caixa—produced a combined loss of roughly R$5 billion. Other figures cited in the video range from R$4.8 billion to R$5.1 billion.
• Correios reportedly recorded a loss of R$8.5 billion in 2025. The presenter says removing that loss would raise the group result from about R$169 billion to R$177 billion.
• He compares the roughly R$5 billion loss in the narrower calculation with a R$60 billion figure for the “secret budget,” as well as the election fund, to argue that the loss is relatively small. These comparisons are presented rhetorically, not as a performance benchmark.
• The video says 96% of countries have at least one state-owned postal service and cites a reported USPS loss of US$9 billion as an international comparison.

Examples and Operational Analysis

• Correios and the pandemic: The presenter says Correios’ revenue rose from roughly R$18 billion to R$22.1 billion in 2021, as people stayed home and parcel deliveries surged. He argues the increase should not be treated as proof that a particular administration had suddenly improved management.
• Correios and import taxes: He links subsequent pressure on postal revenues to Brazil’s 2024 tax on small international purchases, arguing that the policy was intended in part to reduce imports and support domestic businesses. He says lower import volumes could also reduce Correios’ business. He additionally acknowledges management problems and says the company needs better management regardless of its public-service role.
• Universal delivery: The presenter argues that private operators may not serve all 5,500 municipalities, particularly remote communities in the Amazon, at comparable prices. He presents the postal service’s reach as a public-service benefit that should be included in any privatization analysis.
• CONAB and food security: He argues that a loss at Brazil’s food-supply and security agency could be acceptable if its operations help prevent shortages during events such as a severe El Niño or a poor harvest.
• Fuel refineries: The presenter says privatized refineries, including the Amazonas refinery (REAM), charged fuel prices up to 122% higher. He uses this as an example of why privatization should be evaluated by its effect on customers and service—not assumed to improve outcomes automatically.
• Other loss-making entities: He notes that some smaller reported losses were only a few million reais, while naming larger losses at companies including CBTU. His broader point is that the size and purpose of each company matter when interpreting the aggregate.

Marketing and Product Strategy

The video also promotes the presenter’s Storyvest investment-education program. The offer is positioned around finance, investing, and macroeconomics, with an interactive learning environment built using Unreal Engine. The presenter advertises lifetime access to recorded lessons for the founding group, a WhatsApp group, and personal contact, and contrasts the program with competing courses on price and teaching format. He also promotes fundamental analysis and long-term investing rather than day trading.

Presenters and Sources

• Presenter: Daniel Uchoa, Investland.
• Sources and comparisons referenced in the video: An official Brazilian government database of state entities covering 2021–2025; Central Bank indicators; and the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) as an international comparison.

The financial and policy claims above are summarized as presented in the subtitles and are not independently verified here.