Тайный план Кремля: что произошло в октябре | Виталий Портников @i_gryanul_grem

Summary

Vitaly Portnikov argues that the Kremlin’s October diplomacy was largely staged to create the appearance of progress in negotiations and help Donald Trump project peacemaking credentials ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

U.S. Elections and Iran

Portnikov expects Democrats to win the House, while the Senate remains uncertain. A divided Congress could lead to prolonged deadlock, with Trump relying on executive orders or seeking confrontation rather than compromise.

He says a renewed U.S. attack on Iran would be unlikely to change the midterm results. Voters are focused mainly on domestic issues, and an offensive war would not necessarily unite the country behind the president.

Fuel and Sanctions

Portnikov describes Trump’s claims that Russian fuel could help lower U.S. gas prices as political messaging rather than a practical short-term solution. In his view, the arrangement also benefited Putin by temporarily easing restrictions on Russian fuel sales, while Russia could sell to other markets and earn hard currency.

The humanitarian pause in Oleshky, promoted as an achievement by Melania Trump, helped Trump present himself as a peacemaker. Ukraine also benefited by getting aid to residents.

A Staged Diplomatic Sequence

Portnikov links the fuel discussions, talks involving Zelensky, European leaders, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, Witkoff’s meeting with Putin, a proposed post-election meeting, the Oleshky truce, and a prisoner exchange. He argues that these events were coordinated to make Trump appear to be achieving results ahead of the vote.

He says Russian human-rights officials have little independent authority; major decisions remain with Putin and the presidential administration.

Doubts About Further Negotiations

Portnikov cautions that Kremlin statements about Putin speaking with Zelensky should not be mistaken for a genuine diplomatic opening. A formal call between the leaders would require coordinated preparation and a political purpose.

He also doubts that the proposed negotiations—or a Trump–Putin–Xi Jinping meeting in Shenzhen—were realistic prospects. China had not endorsed the trilateral-meeting idea, which Portnikov describes as a narrative created by Russia.

Military Developments

Portnikov warns that Russia could use the Oleshky pause to strengthen its positions and prepare for more intense attacks, including against Kherson. He says Russian attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities continued around this period, and argues that strikes often intensify after what he considers imitation negotiations.

He also notes that Ukraine had resumed attacks on Russian oil refineries once the fuel issue no longer served Trump’s political purposes.

Russian Hockey Team

Portnikov sees a sports-arbitration decision allowing Russia’s national hockey team back into international competitions as part of a broader effort to restore Russia’s pre-2022 status. He points to money and corruption in sports organizations, Russia’s doping history, and the close ties between its hockey institutions and state or security structures.

He calls the normalization effort cynical while the war continues.

Presenters and Contributors

• Vadim Radionov — Host
• Vitaly Portnikov — Guest