What Happens to Gold If Trump LOSES The Midterms?

Summary

Nick Bencino argues that gold has historically held steady or risen in the year after a president’s party loses the House in a U.S. midterm election. He says this pattern could repeat if Democrats take the House, particularly if political conflict leads to pressure on the Federal Reserve, lower interest rates, or a debt-ceiling standoff. He presents these as historical patterns and possible catalysts, not guarantees.

Historical examples and figures cited

• 2018 — Trump: Republicans lost the House. Gold was about $1,266 per ounce on election night and roughly $1,490 per ounce a year later. Bencino estimates that $10,000 invested in gold would have grown to about $12,150.

  • Trump criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell as the Fed raised rates four times in 2018. The final increase was on December 19.
  • The government shutdown began on December 22, 2018, lasted 35 days, and followed a period when the S&P and U.S. stock market were described as about 20% below September levels. Stocks fell a further 2.7% on Christmas Eve.
  • On January 30, 2019, the Fed said it would be patient about further rate increases. It cut rates in July, September, and October.

• 1994 — Clinton: Republicans won the House and Senate. The government shut down twice in late 1995 and early 1996. Gold moved from roughly $384 per ounce to $385 per ounce in the year after the election, despite Fed rate increases. Bencino says it rose about 10% in the following months.

• 2006 — George W. Bush: Democrats took both chambers. Gold rose about 33% over the following year, although Bencino says the financial crisis also contributed. He notes that the Fed had raised rates 17 consecutive times before the election.

• 2010 — Obama: Republicans gained more than 60 House seats. Gold rose from about $1,357 per ounce on election night to a record near $1,900 per ounce a year later. Bencino links the period to the Fed’s $600 billion asset-purchase program and the 2011 debt-ceiling confrontation, which was resolved on August 2.

• 2022 — Biden: Republicans took the House, but not the Senate. Gold rose about 14% over the following year, according to Bencino, who attributes some support to central-bank gold buying. He also cites a further approximately 9% jump after Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023.

Bencino summarizes the record as gold rising in four of five cases and remaining roughly stable in one. He cautions that election outcomes alone do not explain gold’s performance; monetary policy, financial crises, and central-bank purchases also played a role.

Market logic and potential catalysts

• Gold pays no interest or dividends. When cash earns attractive returns after inflation, it may be more appealing. When central banks cut rates and cash yields fall, gold’s relative appeal may increase.
• Bencino’s central political-market question is whether the Fed or Trump “blinks” first. He says Fed rate cuts would generally support gold, while further rate increases could weigh on it.
• He also identifies potential government-funding and debt-ceiling disputes as sources of uncertainty that could support demand for gold.
• The video compares Trump’s criticism of Powell in 2018 with the current scenario it describes, including pressure on Fed governor Lisa Cook and Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Bencino presents these as developments to watch, not certain outcomes.

Dates and probabilities cited

The video refers to the following as upcoming dates in 2026:

• November 3: Midterm elections. Betting markets are said to assign Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House and a 64% chance of winning the Senate.
• November 5: A hearing concerning Lisa Cook, whom Trump is said to be trying to remove from the Fed board.
• December 9: The Fed’s final meeting of the year. Bencino says markets price a 90% chance of a rate increase. In his framing, another hike would signal that Warsh is not yielding to pressure, while a pause could resemble the 2018 shift.
• December 11: The government is said to face a funding deadline. Bencino also says the U.S. has about $900 billion of borrowing capacity remaining before reaching the debt ceiling.

Bencino’s position and cautions

Bencino says he is not selling his physical gold. He personally expects gold to rise over the next decade and says it could eventually reach $10,000 per ounce. This is his opinion, not a forecast supported by a valuation model.

He explicitly says the video is not financial advice and advises viewers not to accept financial advice indiscriminately from YouTube.

Presenter and sources mentioned

Nick Bencino; historical examples involving Presidents Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump; Fed officials Arthur Burns, Jerome Powell, Kevin Warsh, and Lisa Cook; and betting-market probabilities.