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The Stablecoin Monster | Mark Goodwin | CBDC: The End of Money

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Overview

Mark Goodwin argues that “CBDCs” are being framed as the main threat to financial privacy and control. However, he claims the more dangerous outcome is a private-sector “programmable dollar” built using stablecoins—effectively replicating CBDC-like features while keeping oversight and censorship largely in private hands.

What Stablecoins Are (and Why They Matter)

  • Stablecoins are described as dollar-denominated representations on a ledger, backed by traditional assets (e.g., U.S. Treasuries) in a way compared to how retail banks issue dollar instruments using collateral.
  • Goodwin emphasizes that this is mechanically the same dollar system:
    • the treasury-backed dollar structure is continued,
    • but implemented on blockchains (e.g., Ethereum and other chains, sometimes Bitcoin).

“CBDC Is a Red Herring”: The Surveillance/Control Argument

  • He claims the U.S. government would not directly issue a “government CBDC” at scale.
  • Instead, policy would hide behind the private sector, using regulated banks and institutions to build similar capabilities.
  • The core fears often raised about CBDCs—surveillance, programmability, and the ability to block transactions or deny access—would still exist, but via private intermediaries.
  • He suggests private entities can more easily restrict service (e.g., blacklisting, seizing funds, controlling access) than public-sector systems.
  • As support, he points to COVID-era public/private coordination as a blueprint.

How the Current System Is Evolving: FedNow as Proof of “Control”

Goodwin argues that systems like FedNow are frequently misunderstood:

  • He claims FedNow is not a consumer “digital dollar token” system.
  • Instead, he frames it as an interbank settlement network that enables the Federal Reserve to exert control over:
    • settlement,
    • funding rates.
  • He uses FedNow to argue the U.S. is already moving toward enhanced operational control over dollar settlement and securities trading.

The “Stablecoin Monster” and Global Dollar Expansion

His central warning is that stablecoins will become the practical vehicle for digitizing the dollar globally:

  • This would increase the velocity and reach of dollar instruments through a “programmable money” layer.
  • He argues this will drive massive additional demand for Treasuries that back stablecoins.
  • He suggests this could allow the U.S. government to service debt through global stablecoin-related flows.
  • As examples, he cites:
    • Tether’s large treasury holdings
  • He also claims stablecoins are still relatively small now, but could grow into trillions.

Programmability and Enforcement Are Not Unique to CBDCs

He argues stablecoins can be programmed to enable similar controls people fear from CBDCs, including:

  • smart contracts
  • collateralization (e.g., loans/mortgages)
  • takeovers of transfer permissions
  • wallet blacklisting or refusal of transactions

He also highlights an example claim that Tether onboarded law enforcement (e.g., Secret Service/FBI) to its system to assist in identifying and blacklisting criminals—presented as a dangerous precedent.

Links to Bitcoin Markets: Stablecoin Issuance and Price Effects

Goodwin argues stablecoins do not merely support trading; they can influence markets. He claims:

  • when stablecoins are printed, Bitcoin price can rise
    • not one-to-one,
    • but closely correlated
  • stablecoins are used to create leveraged positions and trading flows tied to BTC pairs (e.g., BTC/USDT)

He references the FTX / Sam Bankman-Fried ecosystem and claims (tied to court testimony) that tether was used to help manipulate Bitcoin’s price direction, such as shorting to keep BTC below a threshold—emphasizing the linkage between stablecoin flows and crypto price dynamics.

Political Narrative vs. Actual Actions

He argues that political rhetoric against CBDCs is inconsistent with real-world stablecoin-friendly developments:

  • He points to messaging by politicians (e.g., Trump, DeSantis) as inconsistent with government/cabinet involvement in stablecoin-related policy.
  • He claims Trump-era actions included legal moves that enabled banks to hold and issue stablecoins, despite public messaging staying anti-CBDC/anti-crypto.
  • Overall, he frames it as a false political victory:
    • CBDCs may be avoided directly,
    • but similar functionality may be delivered via stablecoins and private rails.

Broader Forecast: Wholesale Tokenized Systems Replacing Retail CBDCs Elsewhere

He predicts other central banks will move toward wholesale “deposit tokens” and digitized securities rather than a single universal retail currency.

  • The likely result, he says, is many different stablecoin/peg systems across jurisdictions.
  • These would be interconnected via interoperable tokenized collateral—still ultimately anchored to dollar/treasury dominance.

Banks, VC Incentives, and a “Missing Elephant” in Bitcoin Discussions

He warns that major banks (e.g., JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America) are entering blockchain/stablecoin spaces and issuing stablecoins to customers.

He claims Bitcoin adoption discussions often underplay stablecoins’ role in:

  • Bitcoin price influence
  • Bitcoin scaling/globalization strategy (using stablecoins rather than distributing Bitcoin directly)

He also suggests venture capital incentives may discourage open debate about stablecoins’ implications for both Bitcoin and financial control.

Digital Identity as a Prerequisite

He concludes by arguing that both CBDC and private stablecoin systems require digital identity, such as:

  • a digital ID
  • decentralized ID
  • identification credentials

He claims major institutions (Big Tech, banks, international organizations, foundations, and wealth/finance groups) are funding digital ID development—implying identity infrastructure will enable either public or private programmable money.

Presenters or Contributors

  • Mark Goodwin (editor and chief, Bitcoin Magazine; author of The Bitcoin Dollar)

Original video