Iran War Expert: "The 8 Weeks After Midterms Could Be The Most Dangerous!" | Prof Robert Pape

Summary

Professor Robert Pape argues that the weeks following the US midterm elections could be unusually dangerous because three crises may intensify at the same time: a contested transfer of power in the United States, escalation of the Iran war, and a possible Russian campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

US political violence

Pape says the period between voting and the new Congress taking office is especially volatile. He points to polling that, he says, shows tens of millions of Americans are open to political violence.

If Democrats gain control of Congress, he expects serious conflict with the Trump administration, including investigations, impeachment efforts, and possible attempts to remove officials. He warns that confrontations around vote counting, certification, or protests could spark wider unrest.

The Iran “escalation trap”

Pape describes the conflict as a cycle in which leaders take greater risks to recover from earlier setbacks—more like a gambler doubling down than a chess player making calculated moves. He argues that US and Israeli attacks have not forced Iran to concede, while Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to pressure on energy prices and the wider economy.

Pape says a proposed three-day US air campaign could target Iranian military leadership, command centers, and economic infrastructure. In his view, such a campaign could:

• Expand into a prolonged war.
• Leave Iran able to retaliate.
• Cause extensive civilian deaths.
• Make negotiations harder by eliminating or disabling potential interlocutors.

He also raises the risk of attacks on regional infrastructure and says US ground operations could follow.

Russia and Ukraine

Pape believes Putin may escalate attacks on Ukrainian power infrastructure if he concludes that Trump cannot deliver the territorial concessions Russia wants. He describes attacks that could disable electricity in major Ukrainian cities for weeks or months.

He also warns that cyberattacks or other damage to infrastructure in Europe could create public pressure for European retaliation against Moscow. Pape says this would be qualitatively different from proxy wars and could lead to direct conflict between major powers.

How the crises could compound

Pape says rising energy costs, economic disruption, and public anger could reinforce political instability across countries. He considers recent reports of possible cyberattacks on US water or power systems concerning, while acknowledging that attribution is uncertain.

He also presents an alleged attack attempt on a passenger flight as a possible “inspired” attack—one carried out by an individual rather than directed by a government—while acknowledging that the evidence is inconclusive.

Emergency powers and domestic troops

Pape warns that a severe international crisis combined with domestic unrest could lead Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act, which permits the use of the military or National Guard within the United States. He says the possibility is significant because Trump has not ruled it out, though the scenario remains conditional.

Pape’s proposed “firebreaks”

Pape recommends three steps to reduce the risk of escalation:

1. Congress should call for no further US escalation against Iran before the new Congress takes office, unless Iran strikes first.
2. Governors and mayors should seek a two-month pause on federally armed agents operating in their cities, unless local leaders request them.
3. Mediating countries should press all parties to avoid targeting civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Pape does not think household stockpiling is the main solution. He argues that political leaders and the public should focus on these measures to reduce the chance of the crises spiraling.

The host emphasizes the human cost of the wars and says public discussion of risks can help prevent escalation. Pape agrees that social media and public scrutiny can make those risks more visible to decision-makers.

Presenters and contributors

• Stephen Bartlett: Host
• Professor Robert Pape: Guest