📈 LIVE TRADING MARKET OPEN | I'm Leaning Bearish Today... Important /ES Lower High!

Macro / Calendar Context

• The economic calendar is described as “pretty light” with nothing major flagged.
• The speaker specifically notes ISM tomorrow.
• The trading focus is mainly on price action and sector leadership rotation, rather than macro catalysts.

Market Regime & Sector Rotation

A repeated theme is Software strength vs. semiconductor weakness:

• The speaker watches the relationship between:
  • SMH (Semis) and IGV (Software)
• Caution signal:
  • SMH underperformed sharply on Friday versus:
    • SPY (with the remark that SMH dragged the entire market)
    • Q’s
• Conclusion:
  • If semis keep underperforming, they don’t expect a strong broad market.

Strongest Sector: Software (IGV)

• IGV is described as the “strongest part of the market over the last week.”
• However, they caution against chasing after a fast move (notably after ~10% strength in ~2 days).

Trade Levels & Technical Framework (Live “Rules”)

The approach is a support/resistance model with explicit “line in the sand” invalidation levels.

Core Elements

• Identify major prior highs/lows and define invalidation levels.
• Trade based on how price interacts with key levels:
  • Reclaims → bullish
  • Holds → bullish/neutral
  • Fails rejects → bearish
• Avoid trading inside middle-of-range chop:
  • Be patient in ranges
  • Prefer break + retest or clearer momentum/volume
• Many setups are treated as scalps unless there’s a confirmed breakout.

“No Trade Zones”

• The speaker repeatedly references PDL, VWAP, and VWOP as intraday reference lines.
• When these references conflict (e.g., QQQ under PDL while SPY holds demand), they call out “no trade zones.”

Index / ETF Levels (Explicit Numbers)

NASDAQ / QQQ / NQ (Futures)

NASDAQ futures (NQ)

• Intraday higher-low area: 29375–29425
• If it holds, potential upside targets:
  • Possible move toward daily 20
  • Possible return toward “750” SPOT (speaker’s mapping unclear)
• If the level breaks, bearish paths:
  • Toward 29200
  • Toward the daily 100 SMA
  • Toward the overnight low

QQQ intraday trade levels

• Higher-low to hold: 714–715
• If holds and breaks up: target around 720
• If breaks below:
  • Target overnight low
  • Then 7087

S&P 500 / SPY / ES

Major bearish constraint (“line in the sand”)

• Previous major low on ES: 7724
  • If below 7724: “no longs.”

Rejection band

• 7714 to 7724
  • Trading inside 7714–7724 is described as likely lower-high rejection.

Intraday SPY reference

• 76750–76825 area is described as key.
• Observed structure:
  • Lower high rejection developing at 7724/7714
  • Downside mentioned toward 76.50 (mapping unclear)

Russell / IWM / RTY

Favorite short-side setup (break + retest failure)

• Break + retest failure just below 3000–2993 (Russell context)
• Targets:
  • Daily 50
  • Down toward 2940–2932

Rates linkage rationale

• Small caps (Russell/IWM) are described as most affected by interest rates, since smaller firms rely more on debt/financing.

Sector / ETF Technical Calls

SMH (Semiconductors)

• “I hate where the SMH is today”
• Described as sideways for ~a month
• Semis overall are framed as low setup quality
• Stance: wait and see, not guessing.

IGV (Software)

• Treated as the market leader.
• Caution after performance:
  • After ~10% in two days, a retracement is expected.
• Bullish threshold:
  • Hold daily highs above 106–108
• Risk:
  • Notes a gap below that “might need to get filled,” so long attempts need consolidation/confirmation.

Company-Specific Mentions

Salesforce (CRM)

• Strength attributed to earnings news framed as “Claude Force”:
  • Expanded partnership between Salesforce and Anthropic
• “Script flip” logic:
  • Earlier fear: Claude would make software companies irrelevant
  • New takeaway: Claude may increase software revenues
• Bias:
  • CRM may revisit highs (specific numbers not provided in the excerpt, aside from later weekly supply references).

Tesla (TSLA)

• Setup:
  • Lower high rejection around 367/364
• Demand zone:
  • 337–342 (don’t short into it)
• Invalidation:
  • Break below 33724 / 337.24 → bearish continuation risk
• Performance note:
  • Called “best trade of the day”, with execution referenced around 352 and discussion of a 357 pullback (mechanics not fully specified).

“Other semis” (mostly not actionable)

• Nvidia (NVDA): “worst intraday trading stock now” (conflicting intraday chatter)
• AMD, Intel (IN?), TSM: described as sideways/chop; not actionable per speaker
• DRAM / MU (Micron)
  • MU: sideways, later “pushing strong”
  • DRAM: described as dead center of the range

Apple (AAPL)

• Event watch: September 9
  • Historical tendency stated: Apple often goes down off Apple events (not a strict strategy claim)
• Intraday level:
  • 316–317 higher-low zone
• Upside:
  • Daily gap fill toward 329–330
• Framing:
  • Apple as a “safety play” during broader weakness.

Amazon (AMZN)

• Watch item:
  • Volume increased over last two days
  • Retest hold above prior highs
• Reclaim thresholds:
  • Must reclaim 267.50
  • Also above daily 20
• Otherwise:
  • It was described as failing at supply later (execution detail incomplete).

ServiceNow (NOW)

• Breakout:
  • Weekly double-top breakout
• Needs to hold:
  • 135.1–140 (weekly high region)
• Intraday behavior:
  • Went “vertical” off the open.

Palantir (PLTR)

• Retracement long:
  • 179.1–180

CrowdStrike (CRWD)

• Hold above:
  • 213–218 daily highs region
• Upside target:
  • 229–230 if it forms a higher low.

Additional watch/setup mentions (selected)

• Snowflake (SNOW): wait for break + retest above highs
• MongoDB (MDB): watching weekly high region around 444.72 (or similar)
• P&W (P&W): earnings “tomorrow”
• Meta (META): frequent “give-back,” only scalp-minded
• Netflix (NFLX): bull flag forming; watch 81
• Qualcomm (QCOM): demand near weekly lows referenced
• Lucid (LCID): traded on a prop-style account (losses mentioned later)

Crypto / Commodities / Rates

Bitcoin / IBIT

• Bitcoin and IBIT described as “maintaining.”
• Still expected to need a pullback to around 4142.

Energy / Oil (CL) as an equity risk factor

• CL (Crude oil futures):
  • Rising ~3–4% early
  • Warned: oil strength can pressure equities
  • Key levels:
    • Break above prior highs around 87.69
    • Upside potential toward 92–93
    • Also noted: hold back above 83 as a condition
• XLE: described as strong early
• Example energy stock:
  • OXY breakout if above 61
• Mentioned names:
  • OXY, XOM, CVX

Gold / GLD

• Gold (GC) pulled back from supply.
• GLD levels:
  • Must hold above 408
  • If GLD rejects 408, target 395
• After losing the 200 briefly:
  • Thesis shifted to “pop and fade” around the 200 SMA.

Risk Management & Performance Notes

• Market tone:
  • “boring/low-volume/choppy”
  • Many setups treated as scalps, or avoided.

• Explicit rule on S&P/ES:

  “77 7724 on the ES. If we’re below that, I’m not longing a damn thing.”

• Execution caution:

  • Avoid tight-range trades
  • Watch for trap candles near overnight lows and around PDL/VWAP interactions
• Account / performance disclosures:
  • Down about $900–$1,000 on Lucid accounts at one point
  • Later: losing about $1,000, closing the Lucid account
  • Did not trade personal capital for the last five trading days (“defense mode”)

Condensed Recommendations / Cautions

• Bearish on S&P/ES while below 7724 → no longs.
• Do not chase IGV after a fast ~10% move in ~2 days; wait for retracement/flag development.
• SMH is unattractive: sideways/chop and leadership weakness → wait and see.
• Avoid middle-of-range chop; wait for break + retest and alignment (SPY vs QQQ).
• Be cautious around trap candles near overnight lows, especially with PDL/VWAP.

Instruments / Tickers Mentioned

Indices / ETFs / Futures

• SPY, ES
• QQQ, NQ (implied)
• IWM, RTY
• SMH, IGV
• XLE

Stocks

• TSLA, CRM, AAPL, AMZN, META, NOW, CRWD, SNOW, MDB, PLTR
• NVDA, AMD, QCOM, MU, OXY, XOM, CVX, P&W, NFLX
• LCID (Lucid)

Crypto / Commodities / Other

• BTC, IBIT
• CL (crude oil), GC, GLD

Key Numbers Cited (Most Important)

• ISM: mentioned for tomorrow
• NQ (futures): 29375–29425; downside 29200, then daily 100 SMA, then overnight low
• QQQ: higher-low 714–715; target 720; break below → overnight low and 7087
• ES/SPY:
  • “No longs” line: 7724
  • Rejection band: 7714–7724
  • SPY intraday key: 76750–76825
• Russell: 3000–2993 break/retest failure; targets 2940–2932
• IGV: daily highs hold 106–108; move cited as ~10% in 2 days
• IGV (prior reference): purchase opportunity at 84 (April)
• TSLA: demand 337–342; invalidation 33724
• AAPL: higher-low 316–317; upside 329–330; event Sept 9
• AMZN: reclaim 267.50 and daily 20
• Bitcoin/IBIT: needs lower to about 4142
• CL (oil): key 83, prior highs 87.69, upside 92–93
• GLD: hold 408; if rejects → 395