,,Verslo pozicija": Mauricas: bėkite nuo dyzelinių automobilių

Key business/economic takeaways (strategy & “what to do”)

• Economic recovery is underway, but increasingly constrained by structural energy issues and geopolitics. Lithuanian growth is linked to a long-running growth cycle (≈14–15 years) plus later “extra revenues” that support public spending. However, the near-term outlook is being shaped more by diesel/energy policy mismatches and supply shocks.

• Expect persistent diesel price pressure due to structural imbalance (EU supply down vs diesel-dependent demand).

  • The EU’s “hope” approach is described as reducing fossil-fuel supply before demand-side reduction is resolved.
  • Likely outcome: less infrastructure investment, forcing Europe to import more diesel.
  • Historically the main supplier was Russia, then the Middle East, and now options are more limited—e.g., the US—with the claim that no single country can fully cover needs.

• Corporate & operational implication: transport, agriculture, and industrial logistics remain exposed. Companies should plan for inflation pass-through (energy → logistics → food/agri costs).

• Consumer/asset exposure (business angle): because diesel and food costs feed general inflation, firms that rely on transport and input commodities should model secondary inflation waves rather than assuming the shock is short-lived.

---

Frameworks / “playbooks” referenced (implicit)

Systems/sequence logic (“cart before the horse”)

• Supply-side reduction happens first, while demand-side reduction follows later → contributing to market shortages and price spikes.

Risk decomposition by sector (labor/migration policy)

• Use a sector-by-sector “color logic” (green/yellow/red) to decide openness to third-country labor, rather than applying one uniform quota.

Diversification principle for capital allocation

• Diversify across asset classes and geographies to reduce concentration risk under high uncertainty.

---

Concrete examples / case-like references

Poland as a short-term mitigation example

• Poland is cited as temporarily reducing diesel prices via:
  • VAT cuts until Sept 1
  • earlier price adjustments
• The described net effect: ~€0.40 lower than Lithuania (discounts are noted as important).
• Framed as a time-limited “mini-panic” response for cross-border transport relief.

Food price pipeline shock mechanics (wheat → bread/confectionery → feed → meat)

• Wheat price threats are tied to Black Sea export disruption:
  • Ukrainians can’t export
  • Russia can’t export
• The idea presented: about one-third of global exports from these countries are redirected elsewhere, contributing to price increases in trade and contracts.

Infrastructure connectivity argument (aviation vs national benefit multipliers)

• For remote/non-tourist countries (e.g., the Baltics), limited flight connectivity is framed as a major national economic loss.
• Claim: €1 of “earned” value can generate ~10–20x more benefit to the state than direct airline/company value—used to argue against narrow “profit-only” route evaluation.

Labor market technology example (IT)

• Wargaming is cited as announcing management changes and related headcount reductions.
• IT firms relocating (Poland/Cyprus) due to:
  • tax environment
  • simpler integration
• Interpretation: “high-quality” talent may be less welcome under strict rules, contributing to exodus risk.

---

Metrics & KPIs / targets mentioned (business-relevant)

Economic growth & EU comparison

• Q2 growth is described as “as predicted” and among the poorest in the EU, yet still positive, framed as part of a recovery phase.

Inflation

• Lithuania/EU inflation referenced at ~54–56% per year (as a “general inflation rate” framing).
• An “inflation corridor” expectation of “six, seven” is mentioned (exact units unclear from subtitles, interpreted as single-digit / upper-single-digit guidance).

Diesel pricing

• Diesel in Lithuania described as around “2€”.
• Poland diesel described as ~€0.40 lower than Lithuania; cross-border effective prices are lower due to discounts.

Energy market

• Gas reserve fill rate speculated at ~60% (“maybe 60 percent”).
• Electricity trading spikes: Germany winter electricity futures ~2x last winter (except winter 22–23).

Bond yields

• Bond yields described as being at a “very high point,” interpreted as markets expecting higher inflation for longer.

Diversification “count” heuristic

• Diversification guidance: 3–5 (or 10) directions for ~80–90% diversification; little value beyond 20–50 (as framed by the presenter).
• A related tax detail is also referenced for a specific “introductory account” structure (not core to business operations).

---

Actionable recommendations (business-execution oriented)

For transport/logistics & agriculture operators

• Model diesel-cost persistence rather than relying only on spot-price volatility.
• Use cross-border procurement only for temporary tactical relief (e.g., VAT shifts); don’t assume lasting normalization.

For manufacturers/retailers tied to consumer goods

• Incorporate multi-wave inflation pass-through from wheat/food into feed and then meat costs.
• Build contingency for secondary price shocks: bread/confectionery first, then protein inputs.

For policymakers & connectivity-focused investors (airport/route evaluation)

• Use national economic multiplier logic (~10–20x state benefit per €1 earned) rather than airline-level margins alone.
• Prioritize connectivity for peripheral / “almost island” regions where alternatives are limited.

For employers considering hiring from third countries

• Replace blunt quota approaches with sector-specific labor strategy:
  • Transportation: green light
  • Construction/local services: yellow/red
  • IT/high-skill: treat as strategic because “shortage is practically unstoppable” and talent exodus risk is high

Capital planning under uncertainty (corporate finance applies)

• Avoid over-concentration: maintain diversification across asset classes/regions (presented as personal finance, but applicable to corporate treasury and investment risk).

---

High-level investing/markets note (kept broad)

• Markets signal higher inflation durability (bond yields at highs), which can raise debt servicing costs for governments and companies—heightening the risk of further economic and inflation stress.
• Core message: execution under inflation risk—plan for cost of capital and second-order inflation effects.

---

Presenters / sources

• Program: Business Position (BNS news agency)
• Presenter / source: Dr. Žigimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist, Luminor Bank