Bitcoin: Bears Regaining Control

Summary

Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s short-term technical picture is weakening and bears may be regaining control, while emphasizing that he remains optimistic about Bitcoin over the long term. He presents this as a plausible scenario, not a certainty, and says investors should expect false breakouts and avoid treating any single indicator or historical pattern as decisive.

Bitcoin market outlook and technical levels

• Bitcoin was trading around $80,000. Cowen identifies a weekly close below $83,000 as a potential sign of reversal; two consecutive weekly closes below that level would make the apparent breakout failure more convincing.
• The transcript gives recent weekly closes of approximately $82,042 and $82,179. Cowen says another close below $83,000 would strengthen the false-breakout thesis.
• After breaking above a prior May high, Bitcoin rose to roughly $87,000, but subsequently lost momentum and returned below the level associated with the breakout.
• Bitcoin was also back below its 50-day moving average. Cowen says a sustained move below it could lead toward the bull market support zone, which he places at approximately $72,000–$76,000.
• A drop to $60,000 is discussed as a hypothetical, not a price target. Cowen says a deeper decline that forces breakout buyers to capitulate could create a more convincing reset than a shallow pullback.
• Bitcoin could still rebound—even toward the $90,000s—without necessarily invalidating his concern about a broader downturn.

Cross-market and historical comparisons

Cowen points to weakness across several risk assets: many have fallen below their 50-day averages and moved toward, or below, their bull-market support zones. Examples include:

• Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell, and Ethereum (ETH)
• MicroStrategy (MSTR), which he says had already entered its bull-market support zone
• Broad crypto-market indices, including the total market excluding Bitcoin and a further index excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum; the transcript appears to refer to these as TOTAL2 and TOTAL3
• The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the U.S. dollar as macro variables that could affect risk assets

He cautions against assuming markets cannot decline before U.S. midterm elections. In his historical comparisons:

• In 2018, stocks had fallen about 11% before rebounding into the midterms, then later declined again.
• In Bitcoin’s 2014–15 bear market, the bottoming process took about 59 weeks, rather than 52.
• He says Bitcoin’s final declines in 2014–15, 2018, and 2022 came after the midterm elections.
• Silver in 2011 is an example of a false breakout above a prior high followed by a decline back toward earlier lows.

Macro scenario Cowen is watching

Cowen outlines a bearish macro scenario while stressing that it could be wrong:

• A second weekly Bitcoin close below $83,000 would support the false-breakout interpretation.
• Bitcoin could then move into its $72,000–$76,000 support zone.
• He cites an October 28 FOMC meeting and a PCE inflation reading on October 29 as near-term catalysts.
• If the Fed does not raise rates and inflation data are strong, he suggests the 10-year yield could rise, weighing on stocks and Bitcoin.
• He speculates that the Fed might raise rates in December, potentially supporting the dollar and pressuring risk assets. He also mentions that markets could later price out some expected rate hikes.
• He says oil could rise to $120, though he does not give a firm timing or probability.
• He compares the possibility of further rate cuts with 2018–19, when expected hikes gave way to three rate cuts in 2019.

He also identifies a counterargument: Bitcoin might follow a past pattern in which it consolidates after a rise and then resumes higher. However, he says the earlier episode included capitulation and monetary-policy easing, including money creation, which he believes makes the comparison less applicable now.

Investing framework, strategy, and cautions

• Cowen says dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is, historically, probably the best approach for him, and says he bought some Bitcoin in July. He frames DCA as a long-term strategy, not a guarantee of a favorable result.
• His broader investing principle is to make a plan and stick with it over time, rather than focusing solely on whether a short-term prediction proves right.
• He warns that if Bitcoin merely revisits around $60,000, breakout traders may not capitulate; a deeper decline could be needed to produce a more complete market reset.
• He cautions that indicators, cycle expectations, and fractals can fail or take longer to play out than expected. He uses Bitcoin dominance as an example: he had expected 60% and later 66%, and says dominance eventually reached 60% only after a delay. He also notes that a widely anticipated altseason had not materialized.
• He says Bitcoin could eventually fall below realized price, even if that does not happen on the timeline investors expect. He points to prior cycles and raises a possible future AI bubble downturn as a risk, not as a forecast with a specified date.

Assets, instruments, and markets mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• MicroStrategy (MSTR)
• Silver
• Oil
• Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yield / long-term bonds
• U.S. dollar
• Broad cryptocurrency-market indices, apparently TOTAL2 and TOTAL3
• Bitcoin dominance and realized price
• AI-related market exposure, discussed in connection with a possible future bubble

Disclosure

The video’s metadata states that the information presented is not financial advice. Cowen also repeatedly presents his market scenario as uncertain rather than definitive.

Presenter and source

• Presenter: Benjamin Cowen
• Source: Into the Cryptoverse (YouTube channel)