Dr. Gerd Kommer warnt: Es wird holprig! So planst Du jetzt Deinen Ruhestand mit Anleihen und Aktien

Summary

Dr. Gerd Kommer argues that investors should not abandon equities simply because interest rates are rising. His main caution is about long-duration bonds, which can suffer large price declines when yields rise. They may therefore be an unreliable “safe” asset for households that could need to sell at short notice.

Bonds, yields, and risk

• The host cited recent 10-year government-bond yields of more than 5% in the US, nearly 5% in France, about 3.5% in Germany, and 3% in Japan.
• Kommer noted that long-term bond investors have likely incurred substantial losses since interest rates began rising in 2022. Depending on duration, very long-term bonds can fall 15% to 40% when yields rise.
• Higher starting yields provide more of a buffer against further increases than investors had in 2021, but duration risk remains. Kommer expects long-term nominal yields to be higher in about 10 years, while emphasizing that the path will not be linear and that nobody can know the future.
• He is skeptical that long-duration bonds offer enough extra return to justify their volatility for ordinary households. The estimated term premium for longer- versus short-term bonds was put at roughly 1 to 1.8 percentage points.
• Short-term, high-quality bonds, especially those with less than six months to maturity, were presented as much more stable when yields rise. The trade-off is a lower expected return, roughly one percentage point less than long-term bonds.
• Bond risk is not just interest-rate risk:
  • Duration risk: Prices fall when market yields rise.
  • Credit/default risk: The issuer may become less able or willing to service its debt.
  • Currency risk: This matters when a bond is denominated in a currency different from the investor’s home currency. Kommer suggested using home-currency bonds or currency-hedged bonds to avoid it.
• He recommends avoiding high-yield or “junk” bonds in the bond allocation discussed.

Stocks and the stock–bond relationship

• Kommer rejects the idea that rising interest rates automatically mean poor stock returns. Historically, equities have still produced positive and sometimes attractive returns during rising-rate periods, though returns tend to be weaker than during falling-rate periods.
• Moving out of equities in response to rate increases can create opportunity costs and tax costs. Kommer says investors should not treat rising rates alone as a reason to exit stocks.
• Stocks and long-term bonds have not always been negatively correlated. Over the past century, their relationship has shifted in multi-decade periods, sometimes positive and sometimes negative. The favorable bond diversification seen during much of 1980–2021 should not be assumed to persist.
• 2022 was a notable example of stocks and bonds falling together as inflation and interest rates rose.

Macro outlook and interest rates

• The latest inflation figures cited in the interview were 3.4% for the US, 3.3% for Germany, 4.9% for Spain, 4.2% for Italy, and 3.0% for France. Kommer compared these with a desirable inflation range of about 2%–2.5%.
• He sees several potential forces behind structurally higher long-term rates: high government and private debt, aging populations, inflationary pressures including deglobalization, and increased demand for capital from AI infrastructure investment.
• He also argues that political and institutional difficulty in implementing reforms may raise perceived credit and inflation risks. He cited France’s rising borrowing costs—including yields above Greece’s—as an example of market concerns about a country’s fiscal and political position.
• Kommer expects the coming 10 years to be “very bumpy” for societies, citing high debt and weak reform capacity. These are his forecasts and opinions, not certainties.
• He said government debt does not necessarily need to be repaid in full if it can be serviced, but warned that interest costs are already a major budget item in some countries. He referred to debt-to-GDP levels around 100% as a level at which research often finds weaker growth, while acknowledging that the precise threshold is uncertain and disputed.
• The claim that Germany’s statutory pension and health-insurance systems are “effectively bankrupt” was Kommer’s characterization in the discussion, not an independently established finding in the interview.

Retirement portfolios and withdrawal planning

Kommer’s central principle is to set a portfolio according to the retiree’s withdrawal need, income sources, time horizon, and ability to tolerate volatility—not age alone.

• A retiree with little or no need to draw from the portfolio, who is willing and able to endure large fluctuations, could theoretically hold 100% equities, particularly if the goal is to leave an inheritance.
• A retiree with a substantial income gap and high withdrawals should generally not assume that an all-equity portfolio is sustainable; poor early returns could rapidly deplete the assets.
• The example of withdrawing €1,500 per month from €200,000 was initially misstated, then corrected: it equals €18,000 per year, or a 9% initial withdrawal rate before inflation adjustments. Kommer and the host characterized this as very high.
• The host noted that equity allocation may generally fall as withdrawal needs rise. However, at exceptionally high withdrawal rates, a very conservative portfolio could also be almost certain to fail. In some modeled scenarios, taking more equity risk may preserve a small chance of a favorable outcome. This was presented as a tail case, not a general recommendation.
• Both speakers recommended individual, portfolio-specific Monte Carlo simulations to assess sustainable withdrawals and the likelihood of running out of money or retaining assets. Kommer cautioned that the tool must be used with appropriate expertise.

Portfolio guidance discussed

• 60/40 stocks and bonds was described as a reasonable starting point or rule of thumb—not a universal prescription.
• Kommer would keep the bond portion in shorter-duration, high-quality bonds.
• He said small allocations of about 5% gold and, for investors who understand the risks, possibly 5% Bitcoin or Ethereum could be considered as diversifiers.
• Gold and crypto should be assessed as part of the whole portfolio, not by looking at their volatility in isolation. Their weights require disciplined rebalancing; a strong run-up should not automatically leave a planned 5% holding at, for example, 9%.
• No specific stock tickers were discussed.

Active funds versus ETF portfolios

• Kommer is skeptical of actively managed mixed funds, which he said often charge around 1.5% per year or more and generally have not delivered good results, with rare exceptions.
• He favors a self-assembled, low-cost ETF allocation or passive portfolio ETFs, citing lower fees and the absence of manager/timing risk.
• He doubts that active managers can reliably time movements between stocks, bonds, gold, and other assets well enough to beat a static passive allocation after costs.

Disclosures and cautions

• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• The speakers repeatedly stress that portfolio choices depend on individual circumstances and that future interest rates and returns are uncertain. The withdrawal and allocation figures are examples or starting points, not personalized advice.

Presenters and cited sources

• Presenters: Matthias Schober (host) and Dr. Gerd Kommer (guest).
• Other source cited: Capital-market historian Paul Schmelzing, whose historical interest-rate research was discussed.