The Lows Finally Confirmed !!

Disclaimers / Safety

• The creator states the content is for entertainment only and not legal, trading, investment, or financial advice.
• Investing is described as high risk, including: “majority of retail clients lose money.”
• Viewers are advised not to invest unless they understand the risks and can lose it all.

Crypto Risk Warnings (Operational / Wallet Security)

• Mentions:
  • hacks/exploits of cold wallets
  • fake IRS letters (scam/identity fraud risk)

• Specific wallet scenario: If Bitcoin was stored under a single key from ColdCard “Mark 2 and Mark 3” generated between 2021 and 2023, and the owner did not:

  • use dice rolls
  • use a passphrase
  • use multi-sig

…then the creator says the funds should probably be moved as soon as possible.

• Explicit precaution recommendation: “get your coins onto exchanges.”

Macro Catalyst / Rates Narrative

• PCE release described as “colder” PCE prints, framed as supportive because it reduces uncertainty around:
  • sticky inflation
  • the possibility of rate hikes
• FOMC remained paused (as expected).
• Prior context: mentions weaker GDP, but claims uncertainty has been reduced.

Market Regime / Cycle Framing (Charts & Timing)

• Core thesis: “lows finally confirmed” using market structure plus “cycle” signals.
• Cycles are framed as “heat-seeking missiles” targeting over-leveraged players.
• Example: Leopold liquidated after a huge margin call linked to AI-connected positions; the Nasdaq then allegedly also liquidated his position/fund.

Key Instruments and Technical Levels Mentioned

1) Interest Rates (30-year government yield)

• References a historical technical pattern:
  • June 2007 breakout/retest with “type three” behavior
  • followed by a multi-year downtrend
• Current call: rates are expected to be “going to the downside” (contrarian call), attributed to a similar “bigger one of these” pattern.
• Named comparables: Henrik and David Hunter (plus the creator).

2) Nasdaq / US Equity Indices & Moving Averages

• Notes a huge bullish engulfing candle in the Nasdaq.
• States the Nasdaq was up ~3%+ as of the prior day.
• Long condition for US100 / Nasdaq 100:
  • price is “above the 10 SMA”
  • confirmation has occurred
• Expects the next move to resemble a drawn pattern.
• Volatility timing: expects VIX to be “crushed into VIX crush Friday.”

3) Bitcoin (BTC) & Cycle Targets

• Expects BTC to:
  • roll over into a daily cycle low
  • then seek a weekly cycle low
  • and a 4-year cycle low “towards the end of this year”
• Next major downside target: “just below 50k.”
• Also claims BTC is “decoupled” from stocks/altcoins at the moment.

4) Altcoins and ETH

• ETH: expects a pullback/sweep scenario—ETH “come down and sweep” a drawn level.
• Caveat: acknowledges some traders are confident the opposite is true, but the cycle fit is presented as a reason the sweep remains plausible.

5) Precious Metals (Gold/Silver) and Miners

• Precious metals described as “behaving very nicely.”
• Timing: suggests no material change until about mid-September (~the 21st) (“wiggle room” included).
• Strategy framing: wants a high-probability low, but says it might be “a little early.”
• Weekly technical sequence described:
  • bullish cross
  • quick uncross
  • higher low on the oscillator
  • then a sweep
  • leading into bullish divergence structure

6) Oil

• Oil is described as pushing against a “$200 a barrel” narrative.
• Expects a pattern:
  • lower high
  • underside retest of a “fake breakout level”
• Still references pursuing a “major yearly low” (no explicit price given in subtitles).

7) Semiconductors

• Expects semiconductors to be ready to break out and confirm the low “today.”
• Mentions risk/reward: “at least 4 to 1.”

Explicit Trade Framework / Methodology Used (Step-by-Step)

Long setup (Equities / US100 / Nasdaq-related)

Conditions (if-then logic):

• Market open behavior + open and close strong
• Price gets/holds above key moving averages
  • explicitly: above the 10 SMA on US100
• “confirmation” signals trigger

Execution approach:

• “build exposure up slowly”
• add trades with time management
  • mentions adding one before the open and one after the open in the New York session (for members)

Cycle failure / Left-Translation failure → Short setup

• If equities can’t push to new highs:
  • scenario becomes “left translate and fail”
  • then he wants to flip short into that failure zone
• Links the short logic to a prior Bitcoin short setup (structural similarity).

Volatility / Risk-on timing

• Expects bullish pushes if VIX crush Friday occurs after the catalyst cleanup (post–data / FOMC / PCE).

Key Recommendations / Cautions

• Crypto custody: strongly suggests moving BTC if it matches the risky ColdCard conditions:
  • 2021–2023 single-key generation (ColdCard Mark 2/3)
  • no dice rolls
  • no passphrase
  • no multi-sig
• Trading behavior emphasis:
  • “don’t get in the way of ourselves”
  • “be disciplined”
  • “trade the plan”
  • “keep the risk managed”
• Bottom-calling caution:
  • repeatedly challenges traders who think the bottom is already in
  • suggests the market could print new lows if daily cycle low structure confirms.

Numbers / Timelines Explicitly Called Out

• 2021–2023: risky ColdCard generation window (ColdCard Mark 2/Mark 3, single-key)
• Mid-September (~the 21st): expected timing for precious metals’ next meaningful move
• “Towards the end of this year”: BTC weekly + 4-year cycle low
• “Just below 50k”: next major BTC downside threshold
• Yesterday Nasdaq move: up ~3%+
• At least 4:1 R:R: semiconductors trade idea
• “Today”: repeated implication for key confirmation timing (US100 and Russell/semis readiness)

Tickers / Assets / Instruments Mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Ethereum (ETH)
• Nasdaq / Nasdaq 100 (US100)
• Russell (index mentioned without ticker)
• VIX
• Gold
• Silver
• Gold/silver miners (sector mentioned)
• Oil (no ticker)
• 30-year government yield (rates instrument)
• Semiconductors (sector)

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

• Camel (creator/host: “I’m your boy Camel”)
• Henrik (charts/pattern source)
• David Hunter (contrarian rates call mentioned)
• Leopold (investor/fund subject to liquidation; no ticker provided)