🔴 A MASSIVE Oil Price Signal Just Dropped (This is BIG) | @NorthstarBadcharts

Core thesis (oil / WTI)

• The guests argue that crude oil (WTI) is approaching a key technical breakout level within a roughly ~100–112 resistance zone.
• If/when oil breaks through, they expect oil could rise significantly over time.
• Their framing is primarily based on technical levels and long-cycle chart history, presented as a potential “signal.”

Timing and magnitude (explicit targets)

• They cite a potential ~200% increase from current levels as a “nothing extraordinary” historical move in a long-run context.
• Timeframe to larger upside:
  • They suggest it could take a few years to reach roughly $300+.
  • They also mention $350 as an upper possibility.
• Possible timing for the larger breakout attempt:
  • They discuss an attempt next year or early 2029.
• Execution guidance:
  • Don’t panic before confirmation—wait for breakout/close signals rather than trying to call tops/bottoms.

Risk framing and caution

• Markets are described as volatile and prone to shock movements.
• They caution against:
  • “Fear narratives”
  • Investing based on headline risk (e.g., geopolitical tweets)
• Instead, they emphasize:
  • Support/resistance and technical confirmation
  • Correlation/risk assessment
• Outcomes are framed as not guaranteed:
  • They stress a “most likely scenario” and recommend risk management through waiting for evidence.

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Instruments & assets mentioned

Energy / commodities

• Crude oil / WTI
• Diesel
• Silver
• Gold
• Non-ferrous metals (general reference)
• Copper (general reference)
• Soft goods (general reference)

Equities / indices / ETFs

• SPX / S&P 500 (referenced as SPX; also “S&P 500 energy benchmark” context)
• ExxonMobil (XOM)
• Energy sector ETF (implied XLE; explicitly mentioned)
• Gold/mining-related:
  • GDX
  • SJ (junior silver miners context)
  • ASA (gold & silver mining index / junior mining ratio context)
  • SIL
  • Aza (appears as a mining ticker; discussed as Aza)
• Relative-chart methods:
  • ASA vs XOM correlation/relative charts
• XL is mentioned briefly as an Exxon/energy relative proxy context (not fully defined).

Rates / macro

• 10-year U.S. Treasury yield
• General references to bond yields / interest rates
• Mentions yield levels around ~5% to 5.3% and potential targets ~6–7%

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Key numbers and levels cited

Oil (WTI)

• Current reference price: ~$90
• Resistance zone: ~100, 105, 112
• Longer-horizon targets:
  • ~$300+ (e.g., “5–8 years to reach over $300”)
  • ~$350 (upper mention)
• Technical trigger:
  • A “close above” a key level described as 0.3 (related to an oil-vs-something ratio/chart threshold; not fully specified which ratio).

Gold and silver

• Gold path context:
  • Earlier discussion: around $2,000/oz
  • Then up through $3,000, $4,000, $5,000+
  • Now in correction/consolidation
• Potential further gold downside: “another few hundred dollars”
• Example downside levels:
  • Gold could fall to ~$3,500
  • Silver could fall to ~$45
• Drawdown context:
  • Silver down about ~50%
  • Gold down about ~30%

10-year yield

• Present level: ~5% to 5.2%
• Break trigger / resistance: ~5.3%
• If breakout: targets ~6–7%
• They argue a prior belief that rates wouldn’t return above 3–4% is invalid (implying a regime shift).

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Methodology / framework (step-by-step)

1) Oil technical breakout framework

• Identify multi-year / multi-test horizontal resistance (repeated tests).
• Look for breakaway from a descending trend line and candle wick formation near the level.
• Treat the level as support after breakout.
• Wait for confirmation (break through / close above), rather than front-running.

2) Cross-asset relative value framework (Oil vs Gold; Oil vs Silver)

• Use oil-to-gold ratio support (and wedge structure) to show oil outperformance vs gold.
• Interpret rising ratio mainly as oil outperforming gold, not necessarily both rising.
• Validate with history:
  • Periods where oil held up while gold/silver struggled
  • Contextual decoupling around 2007–2008 (not presented as a precise backtest).
• Diesel vs oil is referenced as a near-identical confirmation.

3) Macro cycle overlay (yields)

• Track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield.
• If it breaks above ~5.3%, they expect ~6–7%.
• Combine yield regime view with oil/gold/silver correlations to assess broader risk.

4) Risk management by time horizon

• For traders:
  • Don’t “catch the bottom.”
  • Wait for breakout after consolidation (evidence-based entries).
  • Acknowledge that waiting may still allow downside (examples: gold to ~$3,500, silver to ~$45).
• For long-term investors/savers (years):
  • Accumulation may already be justified because much of the decline may be “behind you”:
    • silver ~50% down
    • gold ~30% down
  • Continue accumulating during corrections.

5) “Buy the breakout from a base” probability-shift framework

• Look for charts that:
  • Have passed the peak of a bull market
  • Underwent a bear market
  • Formed a multi-year base
  • Then show a breakout (sometimes with backtesting)
• If the base/outtrend setup isn’t present: move on (avoid forcing entries).

6) Mining/relative outperformance filter (miners vs energy proxy)

• Avoid relying on “gold/silver underground resources” narratives.
• For miner baskets/ETFs, require objective relative breakout vs benchmarks (especially XOM / energy).
  • Example given: GDX stalling vs gold and dropping from ~106 to ~84.
• Use ratio charts (e.g., ASA vs XOM) to detect when relative uptrends break.
• Warning mechanism:
  • Distance from the 36-month moving average becoming too large (“sigma zone” risk)
  • Then loss of support confirms momentum reversal.
• Prefer waiting for relative signals closing above resistance lines before rotating into miners.

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Explicit recommendations / actions mentioned

• Oil

  • Prepare for the possibility that oil breaks higher.
  • Don’t panic now, but monitor breakout/close confirmation in the 100–112 zone.
  • A larger multi-year move may follow after confirmation.

• Gold / silver investing posture

  • Traders: wait; don’t chase without clean breakout signals.
  • Long-term accumulators: consider accumulating since a large portion of drawdown may already be done—while still accepting potential further declines.

• Miners vs energy rotation

  • Don’t chase junior miners without confirmed relative breakout vs XOM/energy.
  • They imply earlier profits were redirected into energy/oil because correlations/risk framework suggested better expected performance.

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• Speakers state they are not financial advisors.
• Technical calls are framed as probabilistic (“likely,” “not guaranteed”).
• They advise using evidence and confirming breakouts.
• Sponsor section promotes Investing Pro with a discount link (no additional disclaimer beyond the general non-advisor statements).

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Presenters / sources (named)

• Danny (host)
• Northstar (aka Kevin Wadsworth)
• Bat Charts (aka Patrick Karim)
• Sponsor: Investing Pro (created by the people behind Investing.com)