Top 5 Weekly Options Ideas + Market Prep (Aug 3 - 7)

Finance-focused summary (Aug 3–7 weekly market prep + 5 wheel/put-selling ideas)

Macro / calendar catalysts to watch

Jobs data (volatility catalysts)

• Tue: JOLTS job openings
• Wed: ADP private payrolls
• Thu: Challenger job cuts
• Fri: Non-farm payrolls (NFP)

Inflation / oil risk

• Higher oil prices linked to Middle East developments are flagged as the main inflation pressure.

Geopolitical headline risk (Middle East)

• Ongoing escalation/de-escalation news is being watched.
• Market reaction framing: “oil rises → equities dip,” but the week’s direction is described as difficult to predict.

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Earnings setup / “earnings scorecard” (Q2 2026)

Earnings progress (S&P 500)

• 61% of S&P 500 reported so far
• 86% of companies with positive EPS surprises
• 77% with positive revenue surprises
• Both are above 5-year averages (per the mentioned “Facet/FactSet” earnings report).

S&P valuation / earnings multiple

• 12-month forward P/E = 19.6

Alphabet & Amazon EPS distortion (excluded adjustment)

• Excluding the unusually large EPS impact from Alphabet and Amazon (tied to unrealized gains such as Anthropic/SpaceX stakes mentioned):
  • EPS surprise rate falls from 31.4% → 9.2%
  • Still above historical averages.

Sector leadership / defensiveness

• Best performers mentioned:
  • Healthcare, then Industrials, Materials, Information Technology, Financials
• Consumer Discretionary/Staples are described as pressured by inflation headlines, but earnings breadth is still solid.

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Technical / market condition (index breadth & trend)

S&P 500

• Holding above support range; considered “constructive.”
• Key supports cited: 735, then 725
• “Line in the sand” for the week: ~725
  • Weekly uptrend remains intact as long as it holds.

QQQ / Nasdaq (tech weakness)

• Still below EMAs / resistance with a bearish structure.
• Reference to a “liquidation/capitulation breakdown” (specifically “Leopold,” referencing a prior event) and a subsequent bounce, but trend reset not confirmed.
• Thesis: This week’s earnings + resistance test likely determines whether QQQ regains uptrend or rejects.

Breadth / fear indicators

• Meln volume summation index: “extreme fear prints” referenced.
• Approx. % of stocks above moving averages:
  • Above 20-day EMA ~45%
  • Above 50-day EMA ~51%
  • Above 200-day EMA ~56%
• Interpretation: breadth/fear is soft, but not universally bearish (not “most below 200-day”).
• Flows (smart vs dumb money): institutions and retail both neutral; no strong divergence signal.

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Explicit trading posture / risk management guidance

• Core caution: sentiment and flows remain “awkward,” and macro headlines can quickly reverse rotation.
• Capital preservation emphasis: prefer setups with discounts after earnings.
• Hard rule for the wheel strategy:
  • Do not play stocks that have earnings scheduled during the week until after they report.
  • Rationale: earnings premiums can be a trap; even solid earnings can still drop 10–15%.
• Strategy principle: sell puts (wheel-style), aiming for consistent ROI targets while avoiding earnings dates.

Earnings risk note: earnings are described as “casino,” and pre-earnings exposure is avoided.

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Step-by-step / methodology rules for selling puts (wheel)

1. Don’t trade names with earnings scheduled that week

   • Avoid pre-earnings earnings exposure.

2. Use expected move for strike selection

   • Target selling puts below the expected move
   • Expected move referenced from barchart.com.

3. Apply the “half-percent per week” ROI target

   • Example rule stated: strike price / 2 ≈ desired premium (bid level)
   • Example: half of 190 → roughly $0.95 bid sought.

4. Balance tradeoffs

   • Closer to spot → higher premium, higher assignment risk.
   • Farther below → lower premium; may not compensate capital risk.

5. Dynamic strikes

   • If early-week price drops (e.g., Monday dip), adjust strikes deeper while maintaining the ROI/premium target.

6. Position sizing caution

   • Especially for higher-IV setups / ETF trades: don’t over-allocate; may use 1–2 contracts in more speculative cases.

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Top 5 weekly options plays (selling puts; wheel) — Aug 7 weeklies (mostly Fri expiry)

Note: strikes discussed are targets, not guaranteed fills.

1) Nvidia (NVDA) — “sub-190s” pocket

• Valuation cited: ~$200/share, about 20x forward earnings, PEG under 0.9
• Support zone: ~200 → 190
• Expected move: 193.57
• Target: sell puts below expected move, with preference ~190 and below
• Premium/ROI target: “half-percent rule” (~0.5% per week)
• Suggested contracts:
  • 190 emphasized
  • Potentially deeper (e.g., 187.5) if price dips

2) Reddit (RDDT) — post-earnings drop opportunity

• Recent move: down about ~22% after earnings (sentiment-driven)
• Current price level mentioned: about $140
• Valuation cited: about 27x earnings, PEG ~0.67
• Support pocket: $140 → $125
• Expected move: ~131.22
• Strike targets (below expected move):
  • 125 strike mentioned to keep premium near the half-percent goal (example ~$0.60 mentioned)
• Risk framing:
  • If another 3–4% down move occurs, strikes may be pushed into the 120s.

3) SoFi (SOFI) — earnings selloff despite maintained/raised guidance

• Cause of drop: EPS guidance trajectory disliked; EPS guidance flat while other guidance raised
• Valuation posture: described as fair
• Technical support: defended ~$17 down to ~$14 area for 4–5 months
• Expected move: ~$15.56
• Target strikes:
  • 15s
  • Potentially 14.5 if SOFI dips 2–3% early week
• Premium/IV note:
  • Implied vol around ~15%
  • Half-percent logic implies targeting low-teen cents premium (example referenced for strikes near 15)

4) Robinhood (HOOD) — strong fundamentals but price weakness

• Prior mention: “Robinhood presentation” highlighted strong member growth, Gold subscriber adoption, and options/equities volume with revenue growth
• Forward growth / valuation cited:
  • Forward growth: ~19% per year through 2029
  • EPS growth: ~20%
  • ~39x forward earnings at ~$80
• Expected move: ~81
• Support pocket targeted: mid-70s, specifically ~75
• Target strike (Aug 7): ~76
• Premium target: about ~$0.35 (aligned with half-percent logic)
• Contingency:
  • If HOOD drops 1–2% Monday toward expected move, target 75 or 74

5) ServiceNow (NOW) — cautious “toe in” software after multi-month base

• Valuation cited: about $100, around 23x earnings
• Quality metrics cited:
  • 97% customer renewal rate
  • “Good margins,” revenue/EPS growth
  • AI module adoption
• FCF yield: ~4.4%
• PEG: ~1.17
• Rule exception disclosure:
  • NOW breaks the preferred “monthly uptrend” filter (not confirmed)
  • Still described as having bottomed/held above key lows for ~4 months
• Support zone: ~$100 to ~$85
• Expected move: ~105.11
• Target strikes:
  • Around $100 and under
  • Example: strike around 101
  • Wants 99–95 if price dips, going deeper if early-week selloff happens
• Dynamic approach:
  • Adjust strikes based on a 2–3% or ~4% early move

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Bonus plays (smaller account-friendly; higher-priced stocks avoided)

Bonus 1) NewHoldings (NEW) — “New Bank”

• Technical: reclaiming EMAs; bouncing off ~15.24 → ~14.56
• Preference: sub-14, around ~13
• Notes: low valuation and strong revenue/EPS expansion; earnings not expected for ~2 weeks

Bonus 2) SentinelOne (S) — cyber security theme

• Compared against “overpriced” peers like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto Networks (tickers not given here)
• SentinelOne recapturing weekly EMAs; multi-year support
• Target entry range: ~16.5 → ~15 into support

Bonus 3) “Onas” drones & defense

• Target: ~7.5 → ~6
• Specific support: “the sixes” (IPO-era structure defended ~9 months)
• Valuation cited: about 4x next year’s sales; strong revenue growth profile
• Ticker not specified in the subtitle text provided.

Bonus 4) DRAM ETF (DRM) — deep-strike, high-IV caveat

• ETF holdings down substantially from highs; examples cited:
  • Samsung, SK Hynix, Seagate, Western Digital, Micron, SanDisk/Kioxia
• Major earnings caveat:
  • SanDisk earnings this week is the key risk driver
• Risk management:
  • Don’t play too close due to high implied volatility
  • Target very deep strikes
• Example strike logic for Aug 7 (as stated):
  • Strike ~38 → about ~$0.20 premium (half-percent logic)
  • Assignment risk only if ETF drops ~20%+ by week’s end
• Entry objective:
  • Align entries with ~200-day EMA levels (SanDisk/Samsung/Micron analogs)
  • Mentions target area around $40 or sub-40
• Explicit disclosure:
  • A “big asterisk”; skip if not comfortable

Bonus 5) Zeta (ZETA) — earnings Tuesday after close (no pre-earnings)

• Hard rule: not played before earnings
• Consider only if there’s a bad-but-not-thesis-breaking post-earnings drop (example: ~10% on slight miss/in-line reaction)
• Target area if offered after earnings:
  • ~18–17 resistance range (precise level described as 1817)
• If it “blasts off” after earnings, he likely won’t play; otherwise depends on pricing reaction with fundamentals staying OK.

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Disclosures / cautions mentioned

• Strategy guidance is framed as options put-selling (wheel) ideas.
• Earnings risk caution: earnings are treated as “casino,” and names with earnings during the week are avoided.
• Explicit disclosures for rule breaks / high risk:
  • NOW breaks the preferred monthly uptrend filter but is being tested due to sustained support/base.
  • DRAM has a “big asterisk” due to high IV and SanDisk earnings risk.
  • ZETA has a strict no-play-before-earnings rule.
• No explicit “not financial advice” line appears in the provided subtitle text.

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Tickers / instruments mentioned

Indexes / ETFs

• S&P 500
• QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF implied)

Top 5 options underlyings

• NVDA, RDDT, SOFI, HOOD, NOW

Bonus underlyings (as stated; some tickers not explicitly given)

• SentinelOne (ticker not explicitly stated)
• New Bank (NEW) (ticker not explicitly stated in the bonus section, but “NEW” is referenced)
• Onas (ticker not stated)
• DRAM ETF (DRM)
• ZETA

Other named companies / sector context

• AMD, Arista Networks, Astera Labs; SpaceX (not publicly tradable)
• SanDisk, Western Digital
• Eli Lilly
• Shopify, Uber, Airbnb, Datadog, Celsius Holdings
• DRAM-related references: Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, SanDisk, Kioxia, Seagate, Western Digital (no tickers provided)

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter: recurring host referred to as “Will” (name not provided in subtitles).
• Source/Report referenced: FactSet earnings insights (“Facet” mentioned; “Facet earnings report” referenced).
• Utilities referenced: barchart.com for expected move calculations.