Video summary

[하이라이트] 반도체 주식, 이제는 펀더멘탈에 집중 할 수 있는 시간 | 박세익 전무 & 체슬리투자자문 [모닝브리프 / 26.08.04.화]

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Finance-focused summary (Chesley Morning Brief, 2026-08-04)

1) Semiconductor positioning/flows: leverage ETFs unwind (macro/market structure)

  • Source of data: Citadel (also cited via Global Marketing Intelligence, July 31).
  • Key claim: Retail investors’ selloff in semiconductor & memory stocks (late July) was >5x the prior record.

Leveraged ETF AUM shrink (June peak → late July)

  • June peak: $218B
  • End of July: $154B (down > $60B)
  • End-July breakdown (as cited):
    • Semiconductor leveraged ETF: ~$31B
    • Overseas tech ex-semiconductors: ~$61B
    • Others: ~$62B

Interpretation / recommendation tone

  • “Deal leverage has been cleaned up,” reducing overheating/over-positioning.
  • Market may shift from flow-driven to fundamentals/earnings-driven.

Medium-term outlook

  • Positive: the “technical reset” is largely completed.
  • Investors may “spend less time positioning” and focus more on corporate fundamentals.

Caution / uncertainty: They cannot confirm whether AUM fell mainly due to valuation declines vs. actual share/unit reduction.

2) Stock focus: Palantir (fundamentals over positioning; earnings-driven rebound narrative)

  • Ticker mentioned: Palantir (PLTR)

Price context / performance

  • Dropped from ~$207 to ~ $120
  • Described as undervalued
  • Down ~30% YTD, framing an opportunity to recover

Valuation / financial metrics cited

  • “Sales price ratio”: 93%
  • Operating profit margin: 61.7%

Earnings surprise framework

  • Consensus expectations were discussed around ~129.
  • Actual print: 154
  • Narrative shift: earlier AI concerns about Palantir encroaching on its “turf” were contradicted by data.

Growth emphasis

  • High US commercial revenue/profit growth.
  • Commercial segment had been rising, but showed a slight dip last quarter.

3) Korea “domestic market”: Murata → implications for Samsung Electro-Mechanics (server MLCC demand)

Companies / instruments mentioned

  • Murata
  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics (MLCC/data center supply chain exposure)
  • (Context: other capacitor makers such as Daioyu)
  • MLCC (category; not a ticker)

Murata earnings highlights (numbers and guidance)

  • Consensus beat: operating results ~9% above consensus

Operating profit guidance change

  • Guidance adjusted down 13%
  • Directionally revised from 380 billion won to 430 billion yen (noted currency inconsistency, but the direction is clear)

Q2 revenue YoY by application

  • Computer: +47%
    • Data centers: ~+81%
  • Automotive: ~+16%
  • Mobile: ~+14%
  • Home appliances: described as dropping a bit

Capacitor / demand-supply stress

  • Capacitor revenue: ~+50% QoQ to ~4B (subtitle value referenced)
    • Implies roughly 1.4x quarterly revenue, ~4.3 months’ worth
  • Capacitor sales growth: +16.5% QoQ
  • Inventory signal: long-term inventory accumulated; inventory “slightly decreased” → supply failing to keep up with demand
  • BB ratio (new vs export value): ~1.47, “broke all-time record”
  • Data-center-related 2026 guidance raised: to ~325B yen and 370B yen
  • Capex guidance raised: ~1T yen → 1.16T yen

Explicit risk cue

  • Company said it would monitor pre-orders due to supply constraint (“by a few millimeters”), implying risk of panic buying under tight supply.

Implications for Samsung Electro-Mechanics

  • Murata is presented as validating that server application demand is expanding rapidly while supply is tight.
  • The data center MLCC market is described as dominated/important for Murata and Samsung Electro-Mechanics.

Pricing actions / channel management

  • Samsung Electro-Mechanics distribution channels:
    • news of ~20% price increase
    • intent to prevent hoarding via preemptive increases
    • redirect volume to server use if channels don’t accept higher prices

Lead times (shortage timing)

  • High-capacity MLCC lead time: ~18–19 weeks or more
  • General-purpose MLCC lead time: ~15–16 weeks
  • Conclusion: shortages accelerated because lead times lengthened in both categories.

Market/valuation commentary (Samsung Electro-Mechanics)

  • MLCC price path mentioned:
    • COVID period: ~3.5 won
    • rose to ~5.8 won (+54% over two years)
    • “currently ~5 won” (timing depends on when Q2 price reset occurred)
  • Expected direction: Q2 is where price is set to rise; data-center cycle could be longer than mobile, or rise faster.
  • BB ratio steepness estimate:
    • even +50% in MLCC price could lead to ~8 won (speaker estimate)

Valuation / multiple error discussed

  • “Circular reference risk” affects peer multiple-based targets.

  • Example peer multiples: Murata and another peer moved to ~60x and ~98x, causing recalculation of earlier Samsung Electronics target:

    • earlier target: ~180–200 trillion won
    • recalculated: ~110–120 trillion won
    • Bottom line: earnings estimates revise up, but peer valuation multiples fell, lowering the target.

4) Cosmetics/ODM theme: Cosmax, Korea Kolmar (earnings-cycle + export momentum)

Companies mentioned

  • Cosmax
  • Amore (not extracted as a ticker)
  • LG Household & Health Care (not extracted as a ticker)
  • Korea Kolmar

Cosmax (ODM): valuation, earnings cycle, regional growth

Thesis driver

  • Export momentum from indie brands benefiting ODM suppliers via trickle-down.
  • Source: IBK researcher Cho Kyung-jin, report title: “Disappointing Colors, Promising Skincare”

Key performance numbers

  • Highest-ever quarterly consolidated sales: 680B won (Q1)
  • US sales growth: +51.3%
  • US subsidiary: expected to turn profit in 2H

Forecasts for Q2 (from the report)

  • Sales: ~720B won
  • Operating profit: ~70B won
  • Domestic sales: ~468B won
  • Operating margin: around 9.7% and 7% (subtitle ambiguity; levels cited)
  • China sales: ~170B won
  • US sales: ~45.4B won
  • Indonesia: ~27B won (+30% YoY)
  • Thailand: similar level (no exact number stated)

Earnings / valuation metrics

  • Target price: 250,000 won
    • Method: 18.5x multiple to 12-month forward EPS (14,000–13,000 won range)
  • Forward valuation comparison:
    • global peers: ~16.8x (12-month forward)
    • Cosmax forward P-band: ~14x currently
  • Earnings vs valuation:
    • FY sales: ~2.7T won
    • Operating profit: ~240B won
    • FY operating profit growth: +22% YoY
    • Operating margin: 8.2% → 8.6% (+0.4pp)
  • China growth slowdown:
    • 9.7% → 8.7% YoY
  • US growth described as “extremely steep”:
    • shift from prior year negative growth (qualitative)
    • current year US projected +35.1% YoY

Timing note (risk)

  • Cosmax’s second quarter is the earnings peak (720B), usually supportive.
  • However, the stock “risen late” this time because Cosmax had fallen more during market declines and didn’t fully rise with the semiconductor rotation.
  • Risk: whether the “usual earnings-results drop” repeats.

Korea Kolmar: bullish operational trend but financing/FX sensitivity

General description

  • Strong stock performance until 1–2 months ago
  • Export atmosphere improving

Financial snapshot

  • Operating profit: 110B won
  • Net profit: 38B won
  • Net profit about half of operating profit three years ago (mix improving)

Risks discussed

  • Margin viewed as not great overall
  • Capital raising mentioned as a factor
  • FX volatility affects uncertainty around funding needs next year

5) Broader market levels and positioning (KOSPI/KOSDAQ) + options/foreigners

Index levels

  • Market start: +1.5%
  • Current: +1.29%, 6,337 referenced (likely KOSPI level)

KOSDAQ

  • Started +1.47%
  • Expanded to +3.3%

KOSDAQ drawdown commentary

  • After peaking end of April, fell from ~1200 to ~600 over May–July
  • Valuation attractiveness window cited for 1–2 months
  • Potential opportunity near ~800

Options / derivatives (risk/flow)

  • Mentions put/call ratios and “Chesley AI system”
    • foreigners bought lots of puts at a peak (aggressive long-shot hedging/speculation)
  • Options for the next week (around the 13th / Thursday) still show upward bets

Margin/cascade risk

  • If market strengthens Friday → margin buying may arrive for ~two days
  • If margin calls occur → forced sales could happen “today/tomorrow,” escalating if not sold by tomorrow morning

6) Explicit methodology/frameworks mentioned (step-by-step logic)

Fundamentals-over-flow shift (market regime change)

  1. Detect retail “overheated positioning” unwinding (leveraged ETF AUM declines sharply)
  2. Conclude leverage risk is normalized
  3. Expect earnings/corporate buybacks to take leadership over pure flows
  4. Increase focus on fundamentals rather than positioning

Valuation approach (peer multiple / multiple-based targets)

  1. Build targets using peer multiples (e.g., PCB earnings + Murata multiple for MLCCs)
  2. Recalculate when peer valuations compress
  3. Adjust for circular reference / multiple distortion risk

Cosmax valuation approach (from the report)

  • Apply 18.5x to 12-month forward EPS (14,000–13,000 won range)
  • Compare to global cosmetics ODM peer forward multiple (~16.8x)

7) Disclosures / disclaimers

  • Although subtitles reference “Join investment expert Chesley…,” no explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer is present in the provided subtitles.

Extracted tickers / instruments / sectors

  • Ticker: PLTR (Palantir)
  • Instruments: Leveraged ETFs (semiconductors; overseas tech excluding semis; others)
  • Sectors / themes: Semiconductors, Memory, Technology ex-semiconductors, MLCC, Data center/server applications, Cosmetics, Consumer goods/ODM, Indie brands
  • Indices: KOSPI, KOSDAQ
  • Options/margin: put/call, investor-type options flows, margin calls/forced selling (no specific ticker)

Key numbers & timelines (as stated)

  • July 31: data release referenced (Citadel / Global Marketing Intelligence)
  • Late July positioning reset:
    • leveraged ETF AUM: $218B → $154B
    • semiconductor leveraged ETF: ~$31B
    • overseas tech ex-semi: ~$61B
    • others: ~$62B
  • Palantir (PLTR):
    • price: ~$207 → ~$120
    • down ~30% YTD
    • sales price ratio: 93%
    • operating margin: 61.7%
  • Murata / MLCC chain:
    • Murata beat: ~9% above consensus
    • Q2 revenue YoY: computer +47%, data centers ~+81%, auto ~+16%, mobile ~+14%
    • capacitor revenue: ~+50% QoQ to ~4B
    • BB ratio: ~1.47
    • lead times: 18–19+ weeks (high capacity), 15–16 weeks (general-purpose)
    • MLCC price potential estimate: ~8 won if +50% price move
  • Cosmax:
    • Q1 sales: 680B won
    • Q2 forecast: 720B won sales, ~70B won op profit
    • FY forecast: ~2.7T won sales, ~240B won op profit
    • target price: 250,000 won
    • operating margin: 8.2% → 8.6% (+0.4pp)
    • US growth: +51.3% (Q1 actual), FY US growth ~35.1%
    • China growth: 9.7% → 8.7%
  • Market timing:
    • options: next week around the 13th / Thursday
    • KOSDAQ opportunity: discussed near ~800
    • briefing date: Tuesday, August 4th

Presenters / sources mentioned

  • Presenters: 박세익 전무 (Park Se-aek) and 체슬리투자자문 Chesley
  • Sources cited:
    • Citadel
    • Global Marketing Intelligence (July 31)
    • IBK researcher Cho Kyung-jin (Cosmax: “Disappointing Colors, Promising Skincare”)

Original video