I Bought the 2020 Crash. I’m Doing It Again With This Plan

Summary

The presenter argues that sharp market sell-offs can create buying opportunities, but recommends following a written plan rather than investing all available cash at once.

He cites historical S&P 500 data showing that, among 15 daily declines of at least 4% over the past 30 years, buying on the down day was profitable one year later 12 times, with an average return of about 18%. Buying the day before was profitable 11 times, with an average gain of about 13%. The dot-com crash, 9/11, and 2008 were exceptions. After the 2008 decline, the market took more than 18 months to break even.

His approach keeps 5–10% of a portfolio in cash for large sell-offs. He says routine pullbacks are generally occasions to continue averaging into companies he believes in, while more severe drops may prompt larger purchases. He cautions against committing all available capital on one day.

Screening Framework

Before using reserve cash, he requires a stock to meet three tests:

• Meaningful decline: The stock should fall roughly in line with the Nasdaq-100 that day, within about ±1 percentage point.
• Value: It should be below his estimate of fair value, with credible upside potential. He says investors can consult broker research, such as reports from Fidelity or Schwab.
• Long-term business prospects: He maintains a three-year forecast for each company. For younger, unprofitable businesses, he also considers signed contracts that could later become revenue.

He says forecasts are estimates, not certainties, and emphasizes a three-to-five-year investment horizon rather than trying to capture a one-day rebound.

Companies Discussed

Company / ticker Points cited by the presenter Nvidia (NVDA) Quarterly sales were about $96 billion, roughly double year over year. Shares fell about 9% on Thursday, with an estimated $450 billion loss in market value. His three-year forecast implies about 38% annual growth. Nvidia was already about 12% of his portfolio, so he did not buy more; he said he would consider buying if he had a smaller position. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Quarterly sales grew about 41%. Management said AI demand still exceeds supply and plans to more than double advanced-chip capacity next year. Shares fell about 11%; his forecast implies about 25% annual growth. He said he bought shares. ASML (ASML) Quarterly sales rose about 55%. The company said it may not be able to meet demand for its chipmaking equipment in 2027 or 2028. Shares fell about 9%; his forecast implies about 26% annual growth. He said he bought shares. AMD (AMD) The data-center business nearly doubled in a year. The presenter cited an OpenAI deal expected to be worth more than $100 billion over the next few years. Shares fell about 17%; his forecast implies about 49% annual growth. He said he bought shares. Lam Research (LRCX) Quarterly sales rose about 54%; the company had enough cash to buy back $1 billion of stock. Shares fell about 16%; his forecast implies about 34% annual growth. He identified China, which accounts for about a third of sales, as a key risk. Credo Technology (CRDO) Sales more than tripled last year, with management expecting growth of over 80% this year. Shares fell about 18%; his three-year forecast implies about 46% annual growth, versus an average analyst 12-month target suggesting over 100% upside. He flagged management’s warning of lower profit per sale as a risk. Astera Labs (ALAB) Sales rose about 150% in a year. Shares fell about 20%; his forecast implies about 45% annual growth, while analysts’ 12-month outlook suggested over 100% upside. He sees the company as potentially benefiting whether cloud firms use Nvidia, AMD, or their own chips. IonQ (IONQ) Quantum-related sales more than doubled in a record quarter. The presenter cited about $1.2 billion in signed contracts not yet converted to sales—more than twice expected revenue for the full year. Shares fell about 11%. He said the company was not yet profitable and that his three-year model was not useful for it. Rambus (RMBS) Makes chips used in server memory systems. Shares fell about 16%; his forecast implies about 23% annual growth, compared with analysts’ 12-month outlook of 68%. Cohu (COHU) Makes chip-testing equipment. Orders reportedly more than doubled from the prior year, and it added two large cloud customers. Management expected sales growth of 30–40% next year, and the company had returned to profitability. Shares fell about 21%, the largest drop among his listed stocks.

He also mentions Apple (AAPL) as an example of a stock that did not meet his decline test: it fell only about 1.5% on Thursday. His three-year outlook for Apple was about 12% annual growth, among the lowest rates for the large companies he follows.

Portfolio Allocation and Risk

For a hypothetical $100 of available capital, he would allocate:

• $70 to large-cap companies
• $25 to mid-cap companies
• $5 to small-cap companies

He argues that larger companies have tended to lead recoveries and are less likely to suffer extreme losses. Based on the stocks he follows over the prior decade, he estimates the chance of a stock falling 40% or more at some point in the next year at about 1 in 10 for large companies, versus 1 in 3 for small companies. He says the small-cap allocation is deliberately limited because he is unwilling to risk a large portfolio loss for higher potential returns.

For historical context, he cites:

• During the March 2020 COVID sell-off, the Nasdaq-100 fell roughly 9% in one day, then rose 32% over three months. The Russell 2000 fell about 11% and rose about 21% over the same period.
• After the April 2025 tariff-related sell-off, he cites a large-cap/small-cap recovery comparison of 31% versus 22% and says the S&P 500 recovered about 22–29% over the relevant periods.

The transcript also gives a 41% versus 37% comparison for the March 2020 episode, which does not match its preceding figures of 32% and 21%.

Stocks Discussed but Not on the Checklist

• IREN: Described as a former Bitcoin miner transitioning into AI cloud services and burning substantial cash. The presenter says he owns it but also cites about $10 billion in debt. It did not qualify for new money under his process.
• Oklo (OKLO): Develops small nuclear reactors but, according to the presenter, has no meaningful sales yet. He says his system would wait for evidence that the business works rather than chase a rebound.

He notes that IREN and Oklo rebounded more strongly on Friday than some names on his list, but says his approach does not aim to pick every short-term winner.

Disclosures and Sources

The presenter says he is not a financial adviser and that the video is for educational purposes only. He describes his growth estimates as uncertain and says AI-generated valuation outputs are scenarios, not predictions. The video includes a sponsorship for ChatLLM by Abacus AI.

Presenter and sources mentioned: Brian of BWB – Business With Brian; Warren Buffett and the principle “be greedy when others are fearful”; Fidelity and Schwab as examples of broker research; and ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, which are mentioned in the sponsor segment.