The 100-Year Cycle Is About to Hit: “Another Great Depression” | Gareth Soloway & Michelle Makori

Finance-focused summary

Macro / Fed / rates

• Gareth Soloway argues the Fed remains effectively hawkish despite hopes for no hikes/cuts, pointing to a Jackson Hole-style speech by Fed Chair Kevin Worsh/Walsh (name varies by context).
• He highlights a market repricing:
  • The implied odds of a September rate hike moved from “over 60% chance of no hike” pre-speech to “60%+ favoring a rate hike” after the speech.
• Treasury yields
  • The 10-year yield is cited at ~4.73%, about +5 bps on the day.
  • He expects it could approach 2023-like levels (~5%).
• Yield-curve control / bond buying
  • He references efforts resembling yield-curve control / bond-buying (long-end buying discussed as rising from $2B to $4B).
  • The effect is described as short-lived—about one day—implying the need for a “bazooka” to contain yields.

Inflation framework

• The Fed is portrayed as still unconvinced inflation is back to target, even where some measures improved.
• Mentioned figures:
  • Headline PCE: 3.7%
  • “Core/poor” PCE: 3.3% (wording unclear; “poor PCE” appears to reference another PCE measure)
  • Dallas Fed trimmed-mean PCE: 2.3%
• Soloway’s interpretation:
  • He frames the Fed Chair (Walsh/Worsh) as not “recalibrating” inflation measurement away from the standard PCE 2% target.
  • The Fed remains unconvinced underlying trends have meaningfully improved.

Equity market drawdowns & timing (S&P 500)

• He maintains a bearish stance into the late decade:
  • A ~20% correction is still possible if yields rise materially—specifically, if the 10-year pushes to ~5%.
  • His larger call is a 40–50% correction in 2027, attributed to:
    • Degrading credit markets
    • Economic slowdown / demand destruction
    • A “reckoning day” narrative tied to accumulated debt ($40T debt and $1T interest are cited—described as narrative numbers).
• He warns investors to be careful later in the decade and suggests an exit strategy before the “music stops.”

Oil / geopolitics / inflation risk

• He revisits a prior “three-part” oil approach:
  1. Buy around $65–$70
  2. Ride toward ~$80
  3. Potential reversal toward ~$50
• Oil context and forecast:
  • WTI was cited at ~70 on a prior visit (June 25).
  • It is said to be over $83 now.
  • Base case: oil could reach ~$50 by 2027 (Q1–Q2, possibly as early as Q1) due to weakening economy.
  • Timing is conditional on Middle East escalation vs. a deal and the policy/political environment around midterm elections:
    • If no deal and escalation resumes after midterms, oil may stay higher longer via geopolitics.

AI trade / credit stress / company financials (Nvidia focus)

• Key risk claim: “circular financing” in AI capex.
  • The argument is that Nvidia provides financing/guarantees so customers buy Nvidia chips—creating a self-reinforcing spend loop.
• Nvidia results (as stated):
  • Quarterly revenue: $96.2B (+106% YoY)
  • Data center revenue: $89B (+117% YoY)
  • Adjusted EPS: $222/share
  • Next-quarter revenue guidance: ~$108B
• Market reaction described:
  • After-hours: stock surged ~9% (and was up as much as ~7.5% EOD / ~9% intraday).
  • Next day: enthusiasm faded; he cites down over ~4.5% by the time of commentary.
• Soloway’s interpretation:
  • Even blowout growth may not sustain the move if smart money expects capex topping out / circular finance stress.
  • He links the potential downturn to “trend-line confirmation.”

Specific technical level / “market proxy” trade

• Key chart level: Nvidia $200 support (orange trend line).
• If Nvidia breaks below ~$200, he becomes “very bearish”, implying:
  • Potential broader tech weakness
  • A pathway to a 10–20% correction (and, in his broader framing, deeper 2027 drawdowns).
• He is not shorting immediately—he’s monitoring whether the break is a trade trigger or just an indicator.

Micron bearish call

• He reiterates a prior contrarian stance:
  • Micron target: $450 within ~12 months (also described as ~10 months remaining at that point).
• Thesis framed as:
  • Memory/storage cycle normalization, where margins can collapse even if shortages existed earlier in the cycle.
• He also mentions a possible 75% correction from prior levels (exact math to the target isn’t provided).

Bitcoin / crypto view

• Despite long-term bullishness, he’s cautious short-term:
  • Bitcoin reached ~$80,000, but he emphasizes the market lacks a “higher high” (so he does not confirm the bear market is over).
• Possible downside paths:
  • Short-term: drop into the “low 70s” (around $70k).
  • Bearish setup (e.g., “head and shoulders”) could imply down to ~$35,000.
• Buying plan logic:
  • Start loading / DCA around $50k
  • Buy more aggressively around $35k
• Endgame target:
  • Bitcoin could be “well north of $250,000” by ~2030–2031, in an “ultimate fiat trust erosion” scenario.

Gold / precious metals

• Near-term: “a little bearish,” expecting support and pullback buying.
  • A prior buy level: $3,500 (not reached yet, but still possible).
  • Gold context: reportedly hit ~$3,900 after falling from ~$5,600 to ~$3,900.
• Yield-curve control fears are framed as bullish for gold:
  • If the government suppresses yields further, it erodes trust and could lift gold and Bitcoin.
• End-of-2026 call:
  • Range: $5,000 to $3,500
  • More specific chart-based near year-end level: ~$4,000ish (ascending trend line support)
• Long-run targets:
  • ~$13,000 by 2029–2031 (base-case peak)
  • A higher dialogue scenario of ~$15,000 by 2030–2031 is discussed, but his “average target” is ~$13,000.

“Gold clock” model / methodology

• He describes a repeat-cycle model forecasting timing/peaks in gold.
• Inputs/forces mentioned:
  • Debt issuance pace
    • Current: ~$2T/year
    • Interest alone: ~$1T
    • Base case: ~$2.8T/year going forward
  • Global money supply growth
    • Current: ~7%/year
    • Base case: accelerating to ~9%
  • Fiat mistrust (behavioral/demand factor), including central bank purchases (China highlighted)
  • Real interest rates
    • Expects inflation ~3–4% near term
    • Expects rates to fall, making real rates ~0
• Outputs (as stated):
  • Under “current conditions”: next peak 2031–2033 at ~ $10,100
  • Under base case: peak 2029–2031 at ~ $13,000
• He characterizes the “peak” as the bull-market peak, not just the next bull start.

Silver

• He’s more bearish on silver than gold.
• Thesis: silver is both monetary and industrial, so a US/AI/data center slowdown could hit it harder.
• Targets:
  • Downside: ~$50
  • “Retest” zone: ~$52

China / ETF trade (“single most contrarian position”)

• His favored contrarian trade is China, citing valuation and a technical “retrace to the scene of the crime” setup.
• Instruments mentioned:
  • KWEB ETF (KraneShares China Internet ETF)
  • Shanghai Composite is referenced as an alternative, but ETF is preferred for US investors
• Valuation notes:
  • Mentions P/E ratios ~8–~9 for examples like Alibaba (approximate ranges).
• Timeline:
  • Expects a move in 6–12 months.
• Mechanism:
  • “AI leadership/migration” narrative: the US becomes “too expensive,” so China benefits via open-source model adoption.
• Specific holding mentioned:
  • BYD (subtitles appear as “BYU”); described as under $100 and an exposure to AI/autonomous/automation/self-driving automobiles.

Key numbers & levels (as stated)

• Rate hike odds (September): shifted to 60%+ favoring a hike after a Fed speech
• 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.73%, discussed as potentially returning toward ~5%
  • If that happens: possible ~20% S&P correction
• Inflation measures:
  • Headline PCE 3.7%
  • “Core/poor” PCE 3.3%
  • Trimmed-mean PCE 2.3%
• S&P 500 drawdowns:
  • ~20% correction if 10-year ~5%
  • ~40–50% correction in 2027
• WTI oil:
  • Buy zone $65–$70
  • Target ~$80
  • Current referenced: >$83
  • Downside target: ~$50 by 2027 (Q1–Q2)
• Nvidia:
  • Revenue $96.2B (+106% YoY)
  • Data center revenue $89B (+117% YoY)
  • Adjusted EPS $222
  • Guidance: ~$108B
  • Technical key level: $200 support
• Micron:
  • Target $450 within ~12 months (also described as ~10 months)
• Bitcoin:
  • Peak referenced: ~$80,000
  • Downside scenarios: low 70s (~$70k); bear case ~$35,000
  • Accumulation zones: $50k then more around $35k
  • Endgame: > $250,000 by 2030–2031
• Gold:
  • Buy level: ~$3,500
  • Year-end target: ~$4,000; range $3,500–$5,000
  • Long-run peak: ~$13,000 (2029–2031); higher scenario discussed ~$15,000 (2030–2031)
• Silver: ~$50–$52
• Debt/interest narrative:
  • ~$40T debt
  • ~$1T interest
  • Narrative debt issuance path: $2T → $2.5T → $3T

Explicit recommendations / cautions (as expressed)

• Not a short immediately: focus is on whether Nvidia breaks $200, not initiating a short right away.
• Caution later in the decade: suggests exiting before peak stress (“before the music stops”).
• Gold: accumulate/buy on dips (specifically physical gold).
• Bitcoin: waits for technical confirmation (no “higher high” yet); uses dry powder / DCA.
• China exposure: shift relative focus from US stocks toward China (KWEB and selected names like Alibaba/BYD) over 6–12 months.

Disclosures / disclaimers

• The excerpt references informal “not to be shocking” style comments, but no clear formal “not financial advice” disclaimer is provided in the subtitles excerpt.

Tickers / instruments / assets mentioned

• Stocks: Nvidia, Micron, Alibaba, BYD
• ETF: KWEB (KraneShares China Internet ETF)
• Equity index: S&P 500
• Crypto: Bitcoin
• Commodities: Gold, Silver, WTI crude oil
• Rates / macro: US Treasury yields (10-year/30-year referenced), PCE inflation measures
• AI platform mention (context): Hugging Face (acquisition target; deal size referenced)

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Michelle McCory
• Gareth Soloway
• Other context mentions:
  • Fed Chair Kevin Worsh/Walsh
  • President Trump
  • Scott Bessent
  • Stanley Druckenmiller (“Drunken Miller”)
  • Jim Cramer
  • Miles Franklin (partner/sponsor mentioned by Michelle)