Get Out Of Cash Now Or Wait: 3 Scenarios To Help You Decide | Weekly Rates Update

Markets and Rates

• The S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.7% for the week. The Russell 2000, which tracks small- and mid-cap companies, fell 0.9%.
• On October 9, 2026, Treasury yields for maturities of two years and longer fell by a few basis points for the first time since early August. T-bill yields up to one year rose slightly.
• Yields remained above 5% for Treasuries of five years and longer:
  • 10-year Treasury: 5.24%
  • 20-year Treasury: 5.65%
  • 30-year Treasury: 5.60%
  • 1-month T-bill: 4.13%, versus a 3.75%–4.00% Fed funds target range
• The CME FedWatch tool put the probability of a rate hike at the October 28 Fed meeting at 17.2%. The presenters said it was unclear whether the week’s yield declines were a blip or a sign that yields had peaked. They noted that Treasury yields remained higher than at the start of 2026 and above their five-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year averages.

Three Scenarios for Deciding Whether to Lock In Rates

1. You have a strong view on where rates are headed. If you expect rates to rise, the presenters suggest holding money in a safe, short-term option while waiting. If you fear a market crash or expect yields to fall, locking in medium- or long-term rates sooner may fit your view.
2. You are a short-term bond trader focused on price. Bond prices move inversely to yields. In the video’s example, a 10-year Treasury bought at a 5.24% yield could be worth about $98.13 per $100 of par value if market yields rose to 5.34%. The transcript describes this as a loss of “$187,” but the stated bond value implies a loss of $1.87 per $100, not $187. Longer-maturity bonds are more sensitive to yield changes.
3. You are saving for income and intend to hold bonds to maturity. The presenters argue that interim price declines may matter less if the goal is to collect income and hold to repayment of principal, assuming no default. In the example, a $100 investment at 5.24% pays $5.24 annually. Waiting for a hypothetical 5.34% yield would add 10 cents a year, but yields could instead fall while the investor waits. They frame the risk for income-focused savers as potentially missing today’s rates or losing income by staying in cash.

Portfolio Approach Discussed

• Build a “base” portfolio of safe fixed-income investments intended to provide predictable income for essential retirement expenses; use a “boost” portion for additional return-seeking opportunities.
• The presenters favor laddering or dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to time the market. Their example is to buy some 10-year Treasuries at current yields, then add over time or as cash becomes available.
• They caution against putting all assets in one investment.

Treasury and Annuity Rates Cited

The presenters described Treasury yields as historically attractive and said they may be an opportunity to continue dollar-cost averaging into Treasury and multi-year guaranteed annuity (MYGA) ladders.

Illustrative MYGA rates on a $100,000 investment included:

• Three-year: 5.50% and 5.65% (the transcript’s carrier-rating attribution for these figures is unclear).
• Five-year: Up to 5.85% and 6.00% from A+ rated carriers, and 6.10% from a single-A-rated carrier.
• Seven-year: 5.90% and 5.95% from A+ rated carriers, and 6.10% from a single-A-rated carrier.
• The highest rates highlighted were 6.30% for five years and 6.35% for seven years, from an A− rated carrier. The presenters said these were respectively 1.28 and 1.22 percentage points above equivalent-maturity Treasuries.

The video says A+ is the highest AM Best rating for insurers and describes products from higher-rated insurers as more comparable to Treasuries in risk, while noting that moving down the rating scale involves more risk. It also mentions state guaranty-association limits as a consideration.

Guaranteed Lifetime Income Examples

The video discusses a fixed indexed annuity (FIA) with an income rider from an A+ rated insurer, advertised with a 30% bonus and up to 12 annual 10% roll-ups of the benefit base.

Illustrative examples for a $100,000 initial investment:

• Age 63: Up to $22,195 per year after 12 years, described as a 22.2% payout ratio.
• Age 55: Up to $19,257 per year after 12 years, described as a 19.3% payout ratio.
• Age 47: Income beginning around age 67 after 20 years. The transcript gives “$24,50” per year but also states a 24.1% payout ratio. That ratio implies approximately $24,100 per year; the spoken dollar figure is unclear.

These are presented as potential, illustrative payouts, not guaranteed investment returns. The presenters note that annuity outcomes depend on product terms and personal circumstances.

Risks, Cautions, and Disclosures

• MYGAs generally do not pay regular interest and are illiquid. Some allow a free annual withdrawal of up to 10%, but rules vary by product and insurer.
• Annuity rates and payout illustrations are described as net of fees, applicable as of October 9, 2026, subject to change, and dependent on factors including age and state of residence. Rates are not locked until the contract is signed; individual terms may differ.
• Treasury yields shown are general reference figures. Actual yields at auction, through a broker, or when selling may differ.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The presenters invite viewers to contact them for referrals to annuity specialists, so the discussion includes a commercial referral context.

Assets and References Mentioned

• Equities and indexes: S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Russell 2000.
• Fixed income: U.S. Treasuries (T-bills, notes, and bonds, including 10-, 20-, and 30-year maturities), bonds, and cash.
• Annuities: MYGAs and FIAs with income riders; CDs are mentioned as a comparison.
• Other references: Federal Reserve funds rate, CME FedWatch, AM Best insurer ratings, state guaranty associations, Bill Gross, and PIMCO.
• No individual stock tickers or cryptocurrencies are mentioned.

Presenters and sources: Jennifer Lammer and Markus Lammer of Diamond NestEgg. The video also references the CME FedWatch tool, AM Best ratings, and Bill Gross/PIMCO.