This is 'REALLY DEPRESSING' for Gavin Newsom's political future: Liz Peek

Overview

California’s proposed “Billionaires Tax Act” (Proposition 40) appears to be losing momentum, according to a UC Berkeley/Politico poll. Support has declined to 45% in favor versus 43% opposed.

Polling Shift

The panel notes that the measure’s numbers have moved notably since earlier polling:

• February baseline: support was around 50% and opposition was much lower (about 28% opposed).
• Current snapshot: support is 45% and opposition is 43%.
• Possible driver: voter reluctance to keep “billionaires” from leaving, especially after some very wealthy tech figures have already relocated out of California.

Can It Still Pass?

Despite the shift, the discussion suggests the measure could still pass in November, based on two competing dynamics:

• Persuasion may be weakening for the tax
  • Wealthy tech companies are reportedly funding ads against the proposition.
  • This may be influencing what voters say in polls.
• Mobilization could still help
  • Labor groups—especially SEIU—may be able to increase turnout through direct organizing (e.g., door-to-door campaigning).
  • The panel’s framing: if persuasion is moving against the tax, mobilization may counterbalance it.

Economic Arguments and Budget Concerns

Economically, the commentary argues the tax would not fix California’s core budget problem:

• The claim is that California’s issue is driven more by excessive spending than insufficient revenue.
• A one-time wealth/asset tax is framed as a temporary patch that could lead to renewed budget pressure once the “one-time” funds are depleted.
• This could potentially set up future demands for additional taxes.

Business and Investment Implications

The segment also highlights concerns about broader economic effects, including:

• Public company ownership and investment
  • The measure could force billionaires to sell stakes in public companies, which may deter investment.
• Damage to the IPO market
  • Higher taxes on going public may discourage startups from pursuing IPOs.
  • That could keep more companies private longer—potentially harming the market for large tech listings.

Political Strategy and Newsom Criticism

The discussion ties the proposition to political strategy and argues it could harm Governor Gavin Newsom’s political future:

• The segment claims Newsom’s position is inconsistent:
  • He opposes a state version of a similar policy while supporting a broader national wealth tax.
• This is described as an attempt to “sit on two chairs,” resulting in unfavorable outcomes on both fronts.
• The segment also references rumors/speculation about whether Newsom might run for office depending on Kamala Harris’s plans, suggesting Newsom may have believed or heard something about her not running.

Presenters / Contributors

• Liz Peek
• Jerry
• Cheryl