В мелкий помол, или Как устоять против надвигающегося шторма | Александр Лежава | Сергей Цветаев

Summary

Sergei Tsvetaev and economist Alexander Lezhava discuss how to respond to growing economic and political uncertainty. Tsvetaev compares the moment to the period around the Battle of Borodino in War and Peace: in his reading, Kutuzov understood the limits of his role, acted when circumstances demanded it, and relied on patience rather than fighting for its own sake. Lezhava agrees that the world is in a precarious state, with potential crisis points across major economies, though he says it is impossible to predict where a shock might begin.

Lezhava views current conditions through the lens of economic cycles. He argues that the world is nearing the low point of both the fifth Kondratiev cycle and a much longer cycle associated with capitalism, perhaps within the coming years. He expects substantial changes in the global order, including a possible shift from globalization toward regional blocs, but says Russia’s ability to benefit will depend on its choices and leadership.

On household finances, the speakers describe rising costs, slower wage growth, and shrinking room for ordinary spending. Lezhava notes that Russia has substantial savings in aggregate, but says they are distributed unevenly. He argues that many families are under pressure from mortgages and other fixed expenses, while businesses face higher borrowing costs and weaker demand. As an example of stress spreading through the economy, he points to difficulties in construction and the potential knock-on effects for banks.

The speakers criticize the government’s economic approach, particularly high interest rates and the rollback of preferential lending schemes. Lezhava argues that policy has helped encourage borrowing and construction, then made it harder for households and developers to manage their obligations. He says the state could instead support demand and production—for instance, by buying agricultural machinery for transfer to farmers, redirecting construction firms toward public projects such as warehouses and industrial facilities, or using unsold housing to provide more secure and affordable homes. These are presented as possible policy choices, not current programs.

Housing and family policy are linked to the country’s demographic outlook. The speakers suggest that writing down mortgage debt when children are born, or offering families more substantial housing support, could provide clearer incentives than leaving them burdened with long-term debt. They argue that the underlying question is what kind of economy and society the state intends to build: a high-tech economy would need a larger, skilled population, while a raw-materials-focused model would create less demand for broad population growth.

The discussion also turns to national purpose, education, and young people. Lezhava says that consumer-focused culture and a lack of shared ideology can leave people disengaged from public affairs and uncertain about their future. Both speakers argue that young people need education and opportunities that prepare them to take responsibility, rather than a system that treats them as dependents. They also contend that longer working lives have weakened the role of grandparents in helping young families and caring for children.

Finally, Lezhava argues that Russia’s reduced ties with former Soviet republics have meant the loss of economic links and industrial capacity, and that influence in these countries could be rebuilt through economic engagement, especially with younger generations. He sees a possible future in which Russia develops stronger ties with neighboring states and other partners as part of a regional bloc. The conversation’s overall conclusion is that change is possible, but would require clear national goals, different economic priorities, and practical action.

Presenters and contributors

• Sergei Tsvetaev — presenter
• Alexander Lezhava — guest; economist, financial analyst, public figure, and author of the channel Lezhava. Money and Life