Robert (War Expert) Pape: Is World War 3 About To Begin?

Summary

Iran’s capabilities and the risk of escalation

Robert Pape argues that Iran is a far more capable opponent than the United States’ recent adversaries. He points to its large population, long-standing civilization, space program, and military satellites. In his view, decades of US dominance after the Cold War led Americans and their allies to underestimate the possibility that the United States could be defeated.

Pape describes the war as an “escalation trap”: US actions may achieve tactical military goals, but each step leaves the country strategically worse off and encourages further escalation. He cites attacks on infrastructure and an alleged Iranian cyberattack that temporarily disrupted drinking-water operations in Minnesota and other states. He presents the incident as a warning about risks to civilian systems that depend on vulnerable software.

The Strait of Hormuz and US influence

Pape identifies the Strait of Hormuz as a central source of Iran’s leverage. He describes Iran’s approach as a selective blockade—choosing which ships can pass while threatening or attacking others—rather than closing the strait completely. He says the disruption has already contributed to higher US fuel prices and could make trade more costly.

More broadly, Pape argues that sustained control of Hormuz could give Iran substantial future revenue and influence over Gulf states and other strategic waterways, potentially elevating it into a major global power.

Pape also sees US influence weakening as allies reconsider how much they can rely on Washington. He argues that US military spending has favored a costly, high-technology model shaped by earlier wars, leaving the country less prepared for conflicts involving cheaper weapons such as drones and large-scale attrition.

Iran’s strategy and the US midterms

Pape says Iran’s strategy is increasingly focused on maintaining pressure until the US midterm elections, rather than pursuing negotiations. In his analysis, Iran wants Americans to bear the economic costs of the war and doubt that the United States has a workable path to victory.

He views the election as an important test of whether the conflict could become a prolonged war, though he says current public opinion appears to favor ending it.

Wider conflict and nuclear risks

Pape says he does not expect World War III within the next six months and estimates the probability at roughly two in ten. He says the risk would rise substantially if the United States used nuclear weapons against Iran.

In that hypothetical scenario, he expects many European countries to remain neutral or distance themselves from the United States, while Pakistan would likely align with China. He describes Saudi Arabia as likely to side with the United States and India’s position as uncertain.

Pape characterizes Israel as an important but secondary factor in the decision to attack Iran, arguing that the conflict is primarily tied to Iran’s uranium-enrichment program and US policy. He says his earlier modeling predicted that bombing the deeply buried Fordow facility could leave uncertainty about the whereabouts of enriched uranium and lead to further attacks, potentially aimed at regime change. He also argues that nuclear weapons would not guarantee Israel’s security and that using them against Iran could provoke a wider backlash.

Possible “October surprise”

Pape warns of a possible “October surprise”: he estimates a significant chance—roughly one in three—that Iran could test a nuclear weapon before the US midterms. He says Iran has strong incentives to pursue nuclear weapons and already has some of the necessary materials and technology, while stressing that a test is not certain.

These points are Robert Pape’s assessments and forecasts as presented in the interview.

Presenters and contributors: Will Cannon (host); Robert Pape (guest).