Jamie Coutts: Crypto’s Payback Era Has Begun

Summary

Jamie Coutts argues that crypto is entering a “payback era”: token supply growth is slowing while more protocols direct economic value to token holders. He sees this shift, alongside rising demand for blockchain capacity, as a potential driver of stronger crypto performance and a re-rating of the asset class.

Main investment thesis

• More capital discipline: Coutts points to lower token emissions, fewer unlocks, and leading tokens remaining in indices longer. He says these trends may reduce dilution and reflect stronger network effects.
• More value flowing to token holders: Protocols are increasingly using buybacks, token burns, and staking rewards. Coutts says roughly 25–26% of the top 100 index constituents now have significant value-accrual mechanisms.
• Improving fundamentals: Compared with 2022, he cited blockchain fees rising from $5 billion to $15 billion, protocol revenue increasing 2.9×, and payments to token holders increasing 5.3×.
• Demand growth: He described tokenization as becoming real in 2026, though from a low base, and sees AI agents as a potential later source of demand for blockchain services and blockspace.
• Portfolio implications: He favors protocols that align tokens with protocol economics, rather than allowing most value to accrue to venture investors, insiders, or fund equity holders.

NEAR Protocol

Coutts said he re-entered NEAR after holding it in 2025, despite it being one of his portfolio’s worst performers. He said he believes its fundamentals and approach to token value accrual have improved.

• NEAR’s inflation and emission rate was cut from 5% to 2.5%. A further proposal would reduce it to about 1.6%.
• He highlighted NEAR Intents, an interoperability product that lets users trade and interact with DeFi applications across networks while retaining control of their assets. He said fees generated through Intents go toward buying or redeeming NEAR tokens, and that demand for the product had grown significantly.
• He views NEAR as infrastructure for cross-chain interaction, rather than simply a competitor to Ethereum and Solana for blockspace. He cited potential activity across Ethereum, Circle Arc, Stripe Tempo, and Solana as sources of future demand.
• His target portfolio allocation for NEAR was 6–7%. After its weight rose to 13%, he sold 2% and used the proceeds to buy DeFi protocols Aerodrome and Ethena. He said those positions had since performed better than NEAR, although NEAR had risen another 10%.
• For prospective buyers, he said people with at least a two-year horizon could consider accumulating NEAR around $4, and that lower prices could be attractive for long-term accumulation.

Market outlook and risk

• Coutts remains bullish on crypto but is monitoring macroeconomic risks.
• He said the MOVE index had risen above 110, real rates were accelerating upward, high-yield spreads were widening, and the yield curve was flattening.
• He warned that rising real yields could contribute to another six months of turbulence in risk assets.
• He referenced the possibility that a global-liquidity cycle could weaken and bottom around late 2026 or mid-2027, while noting that the current cycle may not follow the usual pattern.
• Despite those risks, he believes the most significant low of the new crypto cycle may already have occurred this year. He acknowledged that he could be wrong and said a pullback could provide an opportunity to build positions.
• He said he was reluctant to take substantial profits because he favors a medium- to long-term investment horizon and believes he holds strong assets. He reported that his portfolio had moved from 70% to 170% over three to four months; the subtitles do not clarify precisely what those figures represent.

Methodologies and portfolio approach

• Assess token value accrual: Look for buybacks, burns, staking rewards, and other mechanisms that direct protocol economics to token holders.
• Assess supply discipline: Track emission and inflation reductions, unlocks, and token dilution.
• Evaluate demand and product-market fit: Look for growing usage, fees, and demand for blockchain space or interoperability services.
• Consider NEAR entry timing: Monitor trading-volume strength, fading price momentum, and potential exhaustion signals using the DeMark indicator set. Coutts said NEAR had shown DeMark “13” signals around the time he trimmed his position.
• Rebalance to target exposure: Coutts trimmed NEAR after its weight exceeded his desired allocation and redirected funds to DeFi investments to bring the portfolio closer to his desired balance between DeFi and smart-contract platforms.

Assets and instruments mentioned

• Cryptoassets and networks: NEAR, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL)
• Protocols: NEAR Intents, Aerodrome (AERO), Ethena (ENA)
• Other blockchain initiatives: Circle Arc, Stripe Tempo
• Markets and indicators: Global liquidity, real yields and rates, high-yield credit spreads, yield curve, MOVE index, DeMark indicators
• Sectors and activities: DeFi, tokenization, staking, lending, DEXs, perpetual contracts, interoperability, blockchain blockspace

Disclosures and cautions

Coutts said he could be wrong about the cycle bottom and flagged macroeconomic risks. No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.

Presenters and sources

• Presenter: Jamie Coutts
• Source: Real Vision
• Other references: Coutts referred to an upcoming note by Andreas and mentioned a question from Jake Ross.