Hlinka geht RISIKO: DAS Einzige, was die Jahresendrally jetzt noch stoppt + Schweizer Favoriten

Finance-Focused Summary

Market Outlook and AI

• Mojmir Hlinka said recent AI-related volatility looked like a normal correction, not evidence that the AI cycle is over. He argued that AI is still at an early stage and that earlier pullbacks have helped prevent an unchecked, dot-com-style surge.
• He distinguished the current AI cycle from the dot-com era by its financing: established companies and the “old economy” are helping fund AI investment, rather than newer firms simply burning cash. He acknowledged that the scale of investment is enormous, estimating hyperscaler AI spending at roughly $800–900 billion, with further investment from other companies.
• He described the market as undergoing healthy sector rotation toward value stocks, rather than money leaving the market altogether. He noted that indices had moved relatively little despite sizable falls in some AI and high-beta stocks.
• He remained bullish on a year-end rally, saying he saw no compelling reason to miss it. He also said investors should not assume markets will be lower simply because they have recently corrected.
• Hlinka cautioned that a crash is always possible, but said that in his 38-year career, he had not seen a major crash occur when it was being discussed so widely in advance. This was his observation, not a guarantee against losses.

Portfolio Construction and Risk Management

Hlinka emphasized that allocation should be tailored to the client rather than based on a market forecast:

• Set the allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash or liquidity according to the investor’s risk profile and when they may need the money.
• Distinguish among:
  • Risk tolerance: How much loss an investor can withstand without harming their financial or personal wellbeing.
  • Portfolio capacity for risk: How much loss the portfolio can bear given liquidity needs and investment horizon.
  • Risk aversion: The risk premium required to choose a riskier investment over a safer alternative.
• Consider both downside and upside risk. An investor should be comfortable not only with a potential 20% fall, but also with whether they are invested enough to meet their goals if markets rise 20%.
• Maintain discipline and avoid panic selling. Hlinka warned against selling blindly after a decline and missing subsequent recovery days.
• In a balanced portfolio, he said selected technology stocks could be included. In a dynamic portfolio, he suggested higher-risk technology and AI names might represent 10%, 15%, or 20%, depending on the client’s risk profile. He said these stocks do not belong in a defensive portfolio.
• His stock-selection philosophy emphasized avoiding weak holdings (“what I leave out”) rather than trying to beat a benchmark by picking the single best performer.
• He said his algorithm had shown weakening momentum and shifted attention toward fundamentals. He did not describe this as a signal to exit or a prediction of a specific correction.

Inflation, Rates, Bonds, and Oil

• The interview cited inflation readings of approximately 3.8% for headline CPI, 3.0% for core inflation, and 1.9% for a trimmed-mean measure. The trimmed-mean figure was described as having fallen from 2.6% to 2.4% and then 1.9%. The discussion treated housing costs and energy prices as important factors in the outlook.
• Hlinka’s explicit rate view was that the next anticipated rate increase would be cancelled, leaving rates stable for the rest of the year. He presented this as a personal forecast, not a certainty.
• U.S. rates were discussed as having reached roughly 5.4–5.5% and briefly moved higher—one part of the subtitles refers to around 5.7%—before retreating. The speakers said the market may initially have interpreted higher rates as an inflation scare, while strong growth was another possible explanation.
• Hlinka said U.S. economic growth had been running faster than inflation and the interest burden, and rejected claims that the U.S. would go bankrupt this century.
• On oil, he acknowledged that his earlier expectation of oil remaining above $100 for an extended period had been wrong about the duration. He argued that oil could decline if the Iran-related conflict eased, while recognizing uncertainty around the conflict and its economic consequences.

Switzerland, the Franc, and Gold

• Hlinka favored Swiss assets and said he had increased holdings in Swiss cantonal banks, insurers and reinsurers, and other Swiss companies.
• He viewed the Swiss franc as likely to strengthen against the euro. He said a level around 0.90 was only a matter of time; the exchange-rate reference is somewhat unclear in the subtitles.
• He illustrated currency effects with a hypothetical: a German investor buying a Swiss share for 100 could earn a 5% euro return if the share price stayed flat but the franc appreciated 5% against the euro. He also gave a currency-only illustration in which €1 million converted to francs and held for 20 years could convert back to nearly €2 million. This was presented as an example of exchange-rate impact, not a forecast or investment result.
• Hlinka was skeptical of gold as a long-term holding, saying it provided no dividends, cash flow, interest, or productivity and did not constitute “substance” in his view. He acknowledged that this was his opinion and that gold could still have a role in a portfolio, including a psychological one.
• He also discussed silver, saying his strategy had exited during a rise around 36–38. The subtitles refer to a subsequent intraday peak near 58 and to the current price being roughly 10% above his exit level. The precise units and figures are unclear in the transcript.

Securities and Sectors Mentioned

Recent or increased purchases discussed by Hlinka:

• Swiss: Swiss Re; Zurich Airport; Georg Fischer; Swiss cantonal banks; Medartis; Medmix.
• Germany: Hannover Re.
• International: Microsoft; Spotify; Palo Alto Networks; Samsung.
• He also described Gurit as a successful but highly speculative trade, saying the share had doubled or tripled in about three weeks after a return to profitability and takeover interest.

Other companies and assets discussed:

• Technology, AI, and semiconductors: Nvidia, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Micron, Marvell, Samsung, SK Hynix, VAT Group, Inficon, Comet, and Meta.
• Other stocks: Netflix, Nike, and PayPal.
• Financial instruments and asset classes: U.S. mortgage-backed securities, U.S. Treasuries, high-quality U.S. corporate bonds, ETFs, Bitcoin, gold, silver, oil, the euro, the Swiss franc, and the U.S. dollar.
• Sectors and markets Hlinka said he would avoid: U.S. mortgage-backed securities, German automotive stocks, and Chinese real-estate securities. He also noted that he did not favor Chinese real estate, while saying there were other investment alternatives to major banks.

Performance and Risk Examples

• Hlinka recalled experiencing a broadly diversified portfolio falling by 70% in an earlier market crash. His point was that investors who had held quality companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, or Microsoft and maintained their nerve could have recovered over time. The example was not a guarantee of recovery for other portfolios.
• He said some AI and high-beta shares had fallen as much as 40%, while broader indices had changed comparatively little. He also discussed a possible 20% correction as something investors should be able to withstand if their portfolio is appropriately constructed.
• He cited Swiss Re as a successful decision: it had been around 15% below a prior level when Hlinka and his investment committee decided to add, anticipating a rotation toward value stocks.
• He described a strong earnings season, highlighting Inficon’s raised outlook for the third time that year and an increase in its margin from 15% to nearly 24%. He also named VAT Group and Comet in the discussion of Swiss semiconductor-related companies.

Other Economic and Political Discussion

• Hlinka argued that proposals for nationalization or “socialization” of property in Berlin could deter investment and create an investment blockade. This was his political and economic view.
• He said that capital seeking alternatives to AI would need another major growth theme or a major shock. He mentioned robotics as a potential future theme but stressed that investors cannot reliably predict the next big thing in advance.
• He characterized Bitcoin and gold as assets some investors buy as perceived protection from fiat currency or the existing financial system. He did not expect Bitcoin to “skyrocket,” but said either Bitcoin or gold could have a place if it served a suitable portfolio function.

Disclosures and Cautions

• Hlinka repeatedly framed forecasts—including the year-end rally, the interest-rate outlook, and the Swiss franc view—as his personal opinions. He also acknowledged that he had been wrong about the duration of elevated oil prices.
• No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles.
• The video promoted a free live webinar on November 10 at 5 p.m. and referred viewers to Hlinka’s asset-management firm. These are promotional references, not independent performance disclosures.

Presenters and Sources

• Mario Lochner — host and interviewer.
• Mojmir Hlinka — guest, described in the interview as an asset manager and stock-market expert associated with AGFIF International.