Mega Whale Prepares for TBC Phase 2 (Anniversary)

Finance / Market Context

• The speaker is preparing for “TBC phase two”, targeting a window of late March and estimating about ~4 weeks until the phase two announcement.
• He uses a market pre-positioning approach:
  • Buy consumables before demand catalysts arrive
  • Estimate how phase-specific supply injections and raider/consumer demand will affect prices.
• Key caution: he says he’ll be wrong about ~half his views—so none of the items should be treated as guaranteed investments.

Disclosures / Disclaimers

• He does not explicitly state “not financial advice,” but he repeatedly warns to:
  • Don’t treat his views as gospel
  • Expect prices to change
  • Expect to be wrong often
• He advises against panic buying.
• He notes market timing risk: if investor spikes occur, prices may later revert when actual raiding demand doesn’t arrive (or arrives later than expected).

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Instruments / Assets Mentioned (Game Economy “Tickers”)

Consumables / Herbs / Raid Materials

• Dark Runes
• Netherbloom
• Terocone
• Nightmare Vine
• Haste Potions
• Destruction Potions
• Swiftthistle
• Nightmare Seed
• Manathistle
• Firebloom
• Flame Caps
• Scrolls: Agility Scrolls and Strength Scrolls

Other Items

• Drums of Battle
• “Flasks of pure death” (mentioned as a possible demand driver tied to Destruction Potion usage)

Note: No real-world financial tickers/ETFs/crypto/bonds/commodities are referenced.

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Step-by-Step / Methodology Framework

• Pre-catalyst positioning: Buy before phase two when time-to-announcement is long.
• Value drivers: compare
  • Upcoming consumer demand (raiding usage needs: haste, mana, destruction, etc.)
  • Expected supply changes (e.g., phase mobs that drop certain herbs)
  • Market structure (price “defense,” oversupply vs. brittle supply)
• Overheating / timing rule:
  • Don’t rush—price spikes from investors may fade if raider demand isn’t there yet.
  • Focus on items that are already “overheating” or where demand catalysts are imminent.
• Risk control by sizing:
  • Use small, option-like positions when outcomes are uncertain (example: Terocone).
• Exit/hold logic for scrolls:
  • If prices surge “too much” (e.g., triple), sell immediately.
  • If prices stay flat, assume investors are liquidating → hold into later phases.

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Key Positions, Numbers, and Recommendations/Cautions

1) Dark Runes — Bullish (buy-more threshold)

• Belief: criminally underpriced, often < 7 gold
• Strategy: keep buying while under ~7.5 gold
• Current position:
  • ~11,000 units
  • ~82,500 gold total cost
• Rationale: mana shortages in logs; players use more mana-related items when needed.
• Caution / supply constraint: upside is limited because they’re easy to farm (instance farmability), so “not crazy” upside.

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2) Netherbloom — Top conviction (brittle supply)

• Thesis: resembles an earlier cheap “mana thistle” pattern
• Supply: “stretched extremely thin,” fragile market (“open sky” with few sellers)
• Current position:
  • ~51,000 units
  • Avg buy: ~3.3 gold
  • Investment: ~168,300 gold
• Purchase band: paying ~3.5–3.8 gold recently because ~3.3 gold doesn’t persist
• Expected behavior:
  • Investor demand may prop up price temporarily
  • But raider/consumer demand could be what ultimately prevents price from settling lower
• Explicit expectation: tied to raiding and haste potions demand.

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3) Terocone — Bearish / “bag-hold” (phase two supply injection risk)

• Thesis: oversupply building; price is “on its knees”
• Current position:
  • ~26,000 units
  • Avg buy: ~1.6 gold
  • Investment: ~41,600 gold
• Plan: not buying more; mostly bag holding
• Phase two risk:
  • Terocone supply injection via Skettis mobs dropping terocones
• Timing risk example:
  • If demand comes later, burning excess supply could take ~10 weeks
  • vs. ~2 weeks otherwise (described as phase-dependent)
• Conditional reasoning:
  • If netherbloom’s ceiling breaks, terocone could rise too (demand often co-moves)
  • But he would rather hold netherbloom than terocone if both rise.

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4) Nightmare Vine — Uncertain (small reallocation)

• Thesis uncertainty: destruction potions don’t seem that popular
• Supply defense: weak, but “not as bad as netherbloom”
• Current position:
  • ~38,000 vines
  • Avg buy: ~1.7 gold
  • Investment: ~64,600 gold
• Expectation: could perform if destruction potions + flasks become popular
• Counterpoint: if warlocks use super mana potions instead, demand may stagnate.

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5) Haste Potions & Destruction Potions — Satellite buys (secondary to netherbloom)

• Haste Potions
  • ~5,000 units
  • 5.5 gold each
  • Investment: ~27,500 gold
• Destruction Potions
  • ~2,400 units
  • 6 gold each
  • Investment: ~14,400 gold
• He bought these when netherbloom became too expensive, to fund/facilitate more netherbloom cheaply.

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6) Drums of Battle — Potential undervaluation (but low consumer demand)

• Manufacturing cost: ~21 gold
• Market price: ~7 gold (rose from ~4.8 gold earlier)
• Current position:
  • ~1,700 drums
  • Avg buy: ~6.5 gold
  • Investment: ~11,050 gold
• Thesis: raiders have large stockpiles, so consumer demand is low now
• Risk expectation:
  • He expects stockpiles to run out because raids use about ~85 drum casts per night
  • “Worst case” risk is low because he expects he can sell near his buy price.
• Market impact caution: “delicate market” due to low supply—avoid moving/resetting it too much.

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7) Swiftthistle — Timing regret (must be more expensive later)

• Mistake: should have bought during pre-patch
• Observation: every rogue uses thistle tea across raid lengths (even long raids)
• Strategy:
  • consumption likely rises with raid progression
  • supply decreases once leveling in starting zones slows
• Current position:
  • ~3,300 units
  • Avg buy: ~1 gold (recently raised to ~1.2 gold)
  • Investment: ~3,300 gold
• Recommendation implication: pre-loaded winners likely did well already.

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8) Nightmare Seed — Prot paladin staple (high price sensitivity)

• Thesis: prot paladins use it “to some degree” regardless of skill/raid size
• Expected demand: increases as bosses get harder in later raids
• Current position:
  • ~2,750 units
  • Buying condition: under 4 gold
  • Investment: ~11,000 gold
• Warning: supply is very low, so if demand hits, price could spike sharply.

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9) Manathistle — Sell/avoid timing (supply injection vs demand doubling)

• He is selling (earlier expectation that price would rise didn’t play out)
• Current range: ~8.15–8.19 gold (subtitle context)
• Phase two impacts:
  • Massive supply injection from Skettis mobs
  • Demand doubles: players need two flasks instead of one
• He can’t predict which effect dominates, so:
  • avoid large exposure
  • keep small position: ~1,000–2,000 planned to sell before phase two
• Profit allocation plan:
  • ~3,250 remaining
  • Uses valuation: ~18.5 gold each
  • Current market value: ~60,125 gold
  • Plan: sell about ~1,000 more, then rotate profits into Dark Runes and more Netherbloom
• Additional caution: in phase three, flasks can drop from bosses, so prices likely decline.

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10) Scrolls (Agility / Strength) — Trade/exit timing (“game of chicken”)

• Strategy: react to investor vs raider behavior
• Current position:
  • ~6,700 Agility scrolls
  • ~6,200 Strength scrolls
• Framework:
  • If phase two price rises significantly and raiders are buying, consider selling
  • If prices don’t move, assume investors liquidating → hold into later phases
  • If they triple, “leave immediately”

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11) Firebloom — Option-like framing (low-risk upside thesis)

• He raised buy threshold:
  • buy threshold now ~40 silver
• Thesis for upside in two potential expansions:
  • TBC era continues: Firebloom becomes expensive due to leveling changes (no longer easy leveling)
  • Wrath of the Lich King arrives: expensive because inscription is added
• Current position:
  • ~69,000 units
  • Avg buy: ~30 silver
  • Investment: ~20,580 gold
• Action: continue buying anything under 40 silver.

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12) Flame Caps — Bag-hold; low expectations (two major headwinds)

• Current position:
  • ~10,000 units
  • Avg buy: ~2.7 gold
  • Investment: ~27,000 gold
• Current price reference: about ~1.5 gold each → he is underwater
• Headwinds:
  1. Large accumulated supply overhang: price is easy to defend downward; demand must be huge to move price up
  2. Shares a cooldown with Dark Runes; he expects Dark Runes to be used more due to mana struggles
• Plan: hold for “later phases” despite negative outlook.

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Timeline / Triggers Emphasized

• Now: March 22–23 (upload timing) and about ~4 weeks until phase two announcement.
• Purchase timing:
  • don’t rush
  • investor-driven price spikes may normalize until real raiding demand triggers movement
• Phase-dependent supply/demand shifts:
  • Phase two:
    • supply injections (notably Terocone and Manathistle via Skettis mobs)
    • increased raider demand
  • Phase three:
    • expected decline for flasks (Manathistle-derived flasks can drop from bosses)

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Key Numbers & Performance Metrics Mentioned

• Price thresholds / reference rules:
  • Dark Runes: buy under ~7.5 gold (often < 7)
  • Netherbloom: avg ~3.3; paying up to ~3.5–3.8
  • Terocone: avg buy ~1.6; he won’t add more
  • Drums of Battle: cost ~21; market ~7; his buy ~6.5
  • Swiftthistle: buy ~1, recently raised to ~1.2
  • Manathistle: valuation uses ~18.5; market discussed around ~8.15
  • Firebloom: buy threshold ~40 silver; avg ~30 silver
  • Flame Caps: buy ~2.7; current ~~1.5
  • Scrolls: decision rule includes a “triple” type exit trigger (no exact prices given)
• Largest positions:
  • Netherbloom: ~51k units, ~168k gold
  • Firebloom: ~69k units, ~20.6k gold
• Usage datapoint:
  • ~85 drum casts per night (claimed as “two full drums per raid”)

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Presenter / Sources

• Presenter: “I am the market leader” (speaker only; no name given in subtitles)
• Sources: none explicitly cited beyond his own market/log observations (“logs”), plus the mention that “one of you” may have additional insight.