30% Leerstand? Immobilienmarkt im Umbruch: Dr. Andreas Beck, Stefan Striedl & Dr. Gregor Broschinski

Business summary

The discussion describes a structural shift in Germany’s office-property market, not merely a normal real-estate downturn. Hybrid work and the possible productivity effects of AI are changing how much office space companies need and, just as importantly, what kinds of workplaces they want. The central business implication is a widening divide between attractive, well-connected offices and outdated or poorly located space.

Market outlook and key metrics

• A 20–30% national office vacancy rate by 2030 is discussed as a possible scenario if the effects of working from home and AI are combined—not as a definite forecast.
• Germany’s current vacancy rate is estimated at about 8–9%.
• Office transactions in the first half of the year were reported to be nearly 70% higher than in the same period a year earlier, despite concerns about the sector.
• In Munich, annual leasing activity was about 600,000 m² last year and was expected to reach a similar level this year.
• Vacancy in Munich’s central locations was described as below 1%. By contrast, some peripheral properties struggle to attract tenants regardless of asking rent.
• In Munich, companies seeking 5,000 m² or more in the city centre may find no suitable space available; some must therefore consider decentralised locations.
• Prime rents in Munich were cited at over €60–70 per m²; the transcript does not specify the rent period.
• One speaker argued that a risky office investment may need a 6–8% return to compete with government bonds yielding around 4%. This was presented as an investor’s comparison, not a universal benchmark.
• Institutional property allocations were said to have risen from below 10%—often around 5%—roughly 20 years ago to 25% or more at their peak. Higher interest rates are encouraging some institutions to rebalance.
• Office-to-residential conversions face substantial economic and technical obstacles. In Munich, the area counted as gross office floor area can be 25–30% larger than the net rentable area available after conversion to residential use.

Business and operating playbooks

• Segment the market by location and asset quality. Assess city-centre and well-connected properties separately from peripheral business parks; national vacancy averages can conceal sharply different local conditions.
• Match space to new work patterns. Companies are increasingly seeking modern offices designed for collaboration, meetings and communication. With many employees working from home about two days a week, the office may need a different layout without necessarily requiring proportionally less space.
• Treat office moves as an employer and talent decision. Some companies are leaving older, decentralised buildings for more attractive central offices to improve the workplace experience and their appeal as employers.
• Underwrite long-term assets against realistic use and leasing prospects. Lower interest rates could support property values, but they will not fix a location that cannot attract tenants or support a credible business plan.
• Reassess early and preserve options. Investors who recognise sooner that demand may not return to its former pattern may have more time to consider renovation, redesign, alternative use or other responses—rather than being forced to sell.
• Evaluate conversions case by case. Zoning and building rules, structural constraints, infrastructure needs and conversion costs can make residential reuse more expensive than demolition and new construction. Municipalities may also need to provide services such as schools, childcare and supermarkets.
• Account for financing and refinancing risk. Banks are reassessing collateral and may demand additional equity or decline to refinance. New office development is particularly difficult because lenders are seeking higher equity contributions.

Examples and market differences

• Munich: Strong demand for central, high-quality offices, supported by a diverse tenant base spanning established industries, newer businesses and startups. High central rents can push large users toward decentralised locations, but the guest remained positive about well-connected, good-quality buildings outside the centre.
• Hamburg: Ranked second by the CBRE guest, with comparatively low vacancy and rents that may leave room for growth.
• Frankfurt: Considered attractive for high-quality, well-located offices, though large properties such as towers require substantial investment and can be harder to sell.
• Düsseldorf: Described as a relatively healthy central leasing market.
• Berlin: Leasing activity was strong in the year discussed, but the city has multiple competing centres and a large supply of high-quality space, so its market was not considered as tight as some other cities.
• Cologne and Stuttgart: The comparison was less definitive. Stuttgart’s centre was described as relatively stable, while automotive-sector pressures were said to affect surrounding areas more than the city centre.
• In distressed cases, a property may sell below its indicative land value—or attract no viable offer—if buyers cannot secure financing or develop a credible use plan. Such cases were described as exceptions rather than representative of the broad market.
• The speakers saw the ownership base as generally more resilient than in some past downturns: pension funds and insurers tend to have more capacity to hold assets through a difficult period, reducing the likelihood of widespread forced sales. However, peripheral properties may remain impaired.

Overall takeaway

Office real estate is not uniformly “dead,” but the previous demand model is changing. Attractive, central and adaptable offices retain a leasing market; obsolete or poorly located assets face a more fundamental challenge. Investors and owners need to distinguish cyclical pressure from structural change and plan for the possibility that some buildings will not regain their former use or value.

Presenters and sources

• Dr. Gregor Broschinski — host
• Stefan Striedl — Managing Director at CBRE
• Dr. Andreas Beck — economist and capital-markets expert