Video summary

Point de marché avec Nicolas Chéron | 15 Septembre 2026

Main summary

Key takeaways

Finance

Market / Macro Backdrop (Sept 15, 2026)

Seasonality & timing

  • Cautious/bearish conditions were highlighted for mid-August to early September.
  • September is described as historically the weakest month (least profitable by the seasonality stats cited across 20/50/100 years).

Catalysts driving consolidation / correction

  • Iran–Saudi / oil shock
    • War-related tensions (including a blocked Strait of Hormuz reference) support higher oil.
  • Inflation + rates risk
    • Oil and transport costs feed into inflation expectations, raising the risk of central bank hikes.
  • Central bank actions
    • An ECB rate hike “last week” was cited.
  • China macro risk
    • Hope for a China stimulus plan, which could later support markets.

Volatility expectation

  • Mentioned “5 to 10 days” of volatility.
  • Also referenced 15 days of potential volatility in sub-segments.

Key Indices & Technical Levels (Prices)

CAC 40 (France)

  • Reference path: 8750 → 8030 (about -10%), described as reaching a target/support area.
  • Support zone: should hold unless more bad news.
  • A future/term chart was used to discuss intraday structure.

S&P 500 (US)

  • A recent low was cited around 7580 (“came to a low point”).
  • Current position described as roughly 2.5% below the all-time high.

Nasdaq

  • Short-term range: 28,800–29,800.
  • Support referenced; rebound noted after tests (e.g., August 24 and early September).

Volatility framing (MM200)

  • The move is characterized as a “lull” below/around the 200-day moving average (MM200).
  • Not expected to be a violent correction unless “exceptional events.”

Commodities / Rates / Inflation Transmission

Oil

  • WTI futures
    • Oil is “soaring above $100.”
    • 110–115 is framed as an upper zone where oil likely shouldn’t go much higher without harming growth.
  • Conditional bearish trade idea
    • If oil rises another ~10% toward 110–115: he would go short on oil / become bearish on oil-related stocks.
  • Diesel / consumer impact
    • Diesel reached new historical record highs in the US.
    • In France, pump prices near €3/liter were cited.

Transport costs (inflation channel)

  • Analogy: $100,000/day → $1 million/day on average.
  • This suggests a major lift in goods transportation costs, reinforcing inflation risk.

Metals (Copper / Silver / Gold)

Copper

  • Said to have set a new historical record.
  • Drivers cited: electrification + data centers / AI demand.
  • Chile production slowdown referenced.

Silver

  • Waiting / consolidation described.
  • Long-term buying zones: $50–55 and $40.
  • He’d only be “forced” to buy if price exceeds $70–72; otherwise, he’d hold off.

Gold

  • He is neutral.
  • Hopes for a pullback toward $4000 or even $3500.
  • “Secret hope”: zig-zag lower to ~$3500 in 6–9 months, then potentially buy for long-term into 2027 at $3500.

Bonds / interest rate path

  • Rising bond yields across:
    • 10-year US
    • 10-year UK
    • 10-year German
    • French OAT
  • Rate expectations:
    • Fed probability ~80% of a hike “tomorrow night” (as stated).
  • Macro effect framed as a vicious circle:
    • Higher rates → pressure on credit / real estate / growth → greater economic strain.

Bitcoin / Crypto Framework and Levels

Key catalyst: “Clarity Act”

  • “Clarity Act” (US legislation) is described as the main catalyst.
    • If passed: could challenge resistance at $82,000 and push higher.
    • If it fails / risk-off: possible drop toward $70,000 and the 2-day moving average.

Longer-term target

  • Personal target remains $50,000–$60,000.

Current / portfolio context

  • He already holds:
    • Capital Bitcoin (stock exposure)
    • A “Bitcoin Treasury” called Capital B (ticker not provided beyond the name)
  • He cites buying around €5.10 and says it is valued around €5.10 currently (as stated on the show).

Explicit Portfolio Actions / Trades (Tickers + Recommendations)

Note: several ideas are repeatedly framed as speculative/aggressive, not the same as “quality long-term investing.”

“Actions” segment (stocks mentioned)

French / European large caps (CAC 40 unless noted)

  • TotalEnergies (Total)

    • Price: €81.8 (below resistance).
    • Potential buy: around €65 (also mentions alternative around €80).
    • Thesis: if oil relaxes (Iran talks/ceasefire progress), Total could correct again.
    • Context: he previously had a bearish call on Total leading to -20% in June.

  • Schneider Electric

    • Bought/add approach on support.
    • Mentioned: 312 peak → ~268 (about -14% from peak).
    • Expectation: may restart if indices stabilize.

  • Schneider + Société Générale + STM + Veolia

    • Described as returning near MM200/support levels.

  • Société Générale (SocGen)

    • Bullish while above €70.
    • If it breaks €70, it signals trouble.

  • STMicroelectronics (STM)

    • Focus on support near/around the 200-day.
    • Staged entries; more cautious trigger discussed above €50.
    • Mentions “near €42” and break points around €46 / €49–50 in his stages.

  • Veolia

    • Support zone: around €31.
    • Cited: touched €31.10 and slightly up while CAC was red.

  • EssilorLuxottica

    • Described as a poor performer / bearish.

  • LVMH

    • Speculative short-term trading.
    • Near €400 psychological level; next zone €340–350.
    • Bought around €410; current about €409.
    • Targets: €440–450; if China stimulus: €480.
    • Risk/reward: stop around 2–3%, target about +20% (claims ~1:7 risk/reward).
    • Notes broker target/rating downgrades; expects possible bounce if CAC/Nasdaq rebound.

  • Carrefour

    • Defensive; in a range €15.3–€16.8.

  • Alstom

    • Resistance zone: €17.
    • Needs a convincing break with volume to unlock upside.

  • “Ntech” / “Entech” (renewables theme)

    • Referenced as Entech (tickers not clearly identified).

  • Coface

    • Entry point if near €15.
    • Bullish long-term / stable profile.
    • Breakout above €16.30 referenced.
    • If it falls below €15.50, watch for pullback and potential buy.

  • SPI

    • Construction theme; wants €37–38, but may need to buy around €42–43.

  • Voltalia (Voltaia)

    • Prior support €6; said to have broken.
    • Prospects lowered after profit warnings.
    • Emphasizes protective stops (example loss scenarios discussed around buying near €7 with/without stop-loss).

  • Soatech

    • Photonics-related speculative idea.
    • Described as being in an upward channel; buy on pullbacks rather than chasing.

  • ABC Arbitrage

    • Watchlist: above MM2 to shift from bearish to neutral/bullish.
    • Notes it distributes an appreciable dividend.

  • Quantum Emotion / Yonk / D-Wave Quantum

    • Speculative entries via accumulation areas:
      • Quantum Emotion: support near $1.15; alert at $1.0; high to ~$1.63
      • Yonk: accumulation zone around $35 ±10%
      • D-Wave Quantum: area around $15–16 ±20%
    • Mentions an alternative: build a mini “ETF” by buying 2–3 names in the sector.

  • Reddit

    • Possible buying zone around $145–$150 support.

  • MSCI

    • Bullish medium/long term; range 500–650.
    • Drawdown low referenced around 520 (April 2025 / Feb 2026 downturn).
    • Current view: looks like it’s in a support zone.

  • Uber

    • Neutral; entry idea around $70.
    • Longer-term support around ~$60.5 (605).

  • CleanSpark

    • Crypto/AI crossover; follows compressions/expansions; expects possible next push.

  • Enogia

    • Highly speculative “phoenix” behavior; buy on support zones near MM2.

Follow-up Q&A-style items

  • UCB (Brussels): around €200; a “gap zone” left open in Sept 2025; mustn’t go back below €200.
  • B6 Semiconductor (Amsterdam): 48% drop in last two months; testing 2024 levels; depends on S&P recovery.
  • ASML: said to be holding up better (no specific price given).
  • NG (Natural gas): break/reaction near support; consolidation approach compared to CAC narrative.
  • R Metal: more emphasis on drones/innovative tech vs traditional vehicles.

Trading Framework (Entries / Exits Logic)

Macro-aware trigger

  • If Iran tensions ease → oil falls → Total corrects (possible buy idea around €65).
  • If markets stabilize/rebound (and China stimulus is possible) → buy oversold stocks in support zones.

Technical approach around MM200

  1. Determine whether price is above or below MM200 (200-day moving average).
  2. Prefer entries during:
    • Shallow consolidations: dips back to/near MM200 then rebounds.
    • “Lull” scenarios: still below MM200 but volatility calming.
  3. Deeper correction / violent volatility cases are treated separately (contrasted with gentle pullbacks).

RSI as a supporting indicator

  • RSI > 70 = overbought
  • RSI ~30 = oversold; watch for reversals

Risk management discipline

  • Uses protective stops even if it means getting stopped out.
  • Voltalia example is used to emphasize stop-loss importance.

Performance / Valuation References (Numbers Cited)

  • CAC 40: about -10% from 8750 to 8030
  • Nasdaq: positional expectation toward historical records in Oct–Dec seasonality (no exact % return given)
  • Schneider Electric: 312 → 268 (~-14%)
  • Total: “lost 20% in May/June”
  • LVMH: “divided by” since 2023; back to roughly ~pre-Covid €400
  • MSCI: drawdown low around ~520 (April 2025 / Feb 2026 downturn)
  • Natural gas examples: “from 10 to nearly €30” referenced as comparable moves (not always tied to a clean ticker)

Disclosures / Disclaimers

  • Information is for investors with knowledge/experience.
  • Not investment advice; informational purposes only.
  • No obligation or solicitation to buy/sell.
  • If ideas are shared and he has done them himself, it’s for educational purposes—not to blindly follow.
  • A playful “ask cat friend GPT” phrasing appears, but the formal disclaimer is included.

Presenters / Sources Mentioned

Presenter

  • Nicolas Chéron (independent stock market strategist)

Referenced institutions / figures / companies

  • Central banks: ECB / Fed (rate-hike discussion)
  • Donald Trump (comments related to Iran talks; diesel pricing; AI regulation stance)
  • Elon Musk and Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) (AI regulation remarks)
  • Financial institutions: JP Morgan, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Fidelity, Schwab (Bitcoin allocation estimates)
  • Indices: S&P 500 / Nasdaq / CAC 40 / DAX
  • Major asset managers on Bitcoin allocation (as quoted)
  • US senators / “Clarity Act” (legislative catalyst)

Original video