Paweł Malik: Nie gram na giełdzie i odradzam spekulację. IMMOstudio odc. 3

Overview

Paweł Malik argues for a strictly fundamental, non-speculative approach to the Polish (WSE) market. He repeatedly warns against treating stock-market commentary as “signals” that guarantee gains.

How he approaches investing

• Avoids certainty and predictions: Malik says he avoids giving ticker “certainty” and does not aim to predict whether a stock will rise or fall.
• Focuses on business performance: Instead of forecasting price movement, he concentrates on company results and what they indicate about business reality versus market expectations.
• Avoids day-trading: He explicitly distances himself from day-trading behavior.
• Uses public “self-censorship”: He describes strong self-censorship in his public analyses, because popularity can cause people to treat subjective views as objective, actionable recommendations.

Common investing psychology issues

Malik emphasizes that investing mistakes are often driven by psychology, such as:

• Closing winners too quickly
• Rationalizing losing holdings

His risk management stance

He recommends systematic loss-cutting using rules—for example, considering closure if a position deteriorates enough (around 15–20% decline). He frames this as necessary because investors tend to:

• remain overly optimistic about companies they already own
• resist admitting errors

View of bear markets

He describes bear markets as inevitable and unpleasant phases where many investors:

• freeze
• hide “skeletons”
• disengage

He also links this behavior to longer-term distrust of capital markets in Poland, referencing legacy fears after 2008 and the impact of Ark funds.

Critique of online investing culture

Malik criticizes “signal groups” and communities built around copying what gurus “bought or sold,” arguing that:

• the main value is often access, not real knowledge
• some practices may cross legal lines

He distinguishes between:

• Subscription knowledge communities (potentially valuable)
• Transaction-chasing communities (problematic)

Track record communication (and why he stopped sharing it)

He notes that he previously published an end-of-period performance/portfolio result (average annual profitability around 35% vs. SWIG80). However, he stopped sharing it because it led to excessive follower attention and could be perceived as market influence.

He stresses he never intended to publish live transactions that others could blindly copy.

What he thinks drives share price changes

Malik frames share-price dynamics using a contrast:

• “Croutons”: companies whose valuations jump mainly due to speculation/reflexivity without fundamental improvement.
• “Frozen food”: companies that look cheap on valuation but stagnate because no positive catalyst convinces the market to re-rate the stock upward.

Market participation and investor demographics

He comments that the stock market’s popularity is growing in Poland, while cautioning that bull markets draw both:

• long-term investors
• short-term speculators

He argues that speculation, especially with CFDs/leverage-style instruments, often ends in failure. He cites high loss rates among CFD clients as a reason to avoid promoting such services, and says he does not cooperate with brokers due to their marketing incentives.

Personal risk filters and international expansion

• He avoids investing in areas where he lacks reliable understanding.
• He began investing in the US cautiously in 2025, initially with about 5% of his portfolio.
• He prefers companies where improving results can translate into valuation increases.
• He is skeptical of “mega-cap growth/AI” style valuations.

Company–investor communication

Malik encourages listed companies to host online conferences after quarterly results because they:

• improve transparency
• help investors ask difficult questions

He also advises investors not to be overly influenced by CEO media performance, and to verify earlier statements against actual outcomes.

Presenters / contributors

• Paweł Malik (investor, analiz portal)
• Host / interviewer (unnamed)