🔴Sunday Market Commentary

Market outlook

• The presenter sees high-timeframe bearish EBP setups on the monthly and weekly charts for Nasdaq futures (NQ/ENQ) and S&P futures (ES). He expects a possible rally or pullback first, followed by a move toward July’s lows and nearby unfilled fair-value gaps and liquidity.
• He emphasizes that this bearish view does not necessarily mean the broader market structure has fully turned bearish: the market could reach lower targets and later resume higher. The projected move could take all of November or longer.
• Bitcoin (BTC) also has a bearish setup in his view: a monthly inside-bar structure, bearish weekly market structure, and a downside gap/liquidity target. He would prefer a rally into the gap before looking for a short.
• Gold has already made a sharp decline. He considers new shorts less attractive because they would be near lows, and says indices and crypto offer cleaner opportunities.
• GBP/USD (GU) is mixed. The monthly candle is a pin and the weekly chart has an EBP, but the setup is at resistance and within consolidation, so he rates it as riskier. A long would require bullish confirmation, potentially alongside continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
• USD/CAD has no clear directional edge for him. He notes a monthly pin but says the weekly picture is unclear.

Trading framework and execution

• At the start of a new week, review the weekly chart; at the start of a new month, review the monthly chart. Use higher-timeframe structure to establish the bias, then seek lower-timeframe entries.
• Prefer EBP candles at important levels—especially near liquidity sweeps, fair-value gaps, and support or resistance. This is a preference, not an absolute requirement; he says these locations help filter setups.
• For confirmation, look for a 4-hour market-structure break or EBP after price retraces into a relevant area. He describes a swept high followed by a break back below as bearish confirmation.
• If confirmed, he looks first to the weekly/monthly EBP low, then to broader liquidity targets such as July’s low. He distinguishes high-resistance moves, which may consolidate and be harder to hold, from low-resistance moves, which can fall more readily after support breaks.
• His EBP timing rule is to look for expansion within one to two candles. Failure to expand in November would be a concern; failure to expand by December would be more concerning.
• He cautions against entering blindly or chasing a move. Wait for a retracement and confirmation, and trade the market structure that actually develops.

Options and risk management

• For a potential index swing trade, he plans to consider QQQ puts (or SPY puts as an S&P alternative), with expirations toward the end of December to allow roughly two months for the thesis to play out.
• He would wait for a pullback rather than buy immediately, scale in gradually—starting around a 25% retracement—and potentially add after confirmation.
• He describes sizing the options position for a total loss, potentially holding through volatility without a stop-loss. He acknowledges time decay as a risk. This is distinct from his futures approach, where he would use confirmations and manage stops.
• He says he may target roughly 26,200 on NQ after July’s low, depending on how ES moves and whether NQ fills its gap. He also identifies the 28,980s as a resistance area and mentions a possible deep pullback to the 25,980s. These are scenario levels, not guaranteed outcomes.
• Illustrative range estimates include about 1,200 points from the current area to July’s low, or around 800 points from a potential entry. He gives an example of a 50-point stop against a possible 700-point move.
• He warns that the setup could retrace farther than expected and says not to FOMO at the market open. It is NFP week, adding event risk.

Instruments, levels, and other details

• ES has several untapped monthly lows/equal lows and a downside gap, which he views as a liquidity target. He says NQ and ES are aligned in this setup.
• SPY has a downside target, but the subtitle renders the level only as “73,” so the exact figure is unclear.
• He says that if ES sweeps its liquidity pool, NQ may also fill its gap.
• For BTC, he expects a possible gap retest before a move toward the low. He says he has traded BTC over weekends without issues, but has not verified weekend holding charges for Vest Markets.
• For futures-prop accounts, he says most firms do not permit holding positions overnight, while some CFD firms may allow swing trades. He notes that holding futures swings can require repeated stop management.

Prop-firm account terms discussed

The presenter discusses Vest Markets account options and promotes a discount code. The following terms are his descriptions of the firm’s offerings:

• His preferred $10,000 account has a 10% profit target, 6% maximum drawdown, 80% profit split, and no maximum daily loss. He quotes a price of about $142 and says code TRAIN gives 5% off.
• He says a customizable version could use a 5% target ($500) with $600 drawdown, or 8% drawdown ($800). He quotes costs of roughly $220 for one option and around $320–$350 for the 8%-drawdown version.
• He argues that traders should account for the possibility of buying several evaluations: three failed $10,000 accounts would cost less than $500 at the prices he describes, while repeated $25,000 accounts could cost considerably more.
• He says he is not a fan of the two-step evaluation. His example for a $25,000 two-step account is a $2,500 first-phase target, a $1,250 second-phase target, $1,500 maximum drawdown, and a daily-loss limit.
• He also mentions My Funded Futures (MFFU) as an alternative, describing its Elite account as having 5% static drawdown and saying it may suit traders who prefer a more established firm. He notes that it does not offer Vest’s customization.

Disclosures and cautions

• He explicitly cautions that Vest Markets is a newer prop firm, and its long-term sustainability is uncertain. He says he is currently trading with the firm but would reassess if circumstances change.
• He promotes his trading toolkit/indicator and gives a Vest discount code. He says he does not have an affiliate code with My Funded Futures.
• No clear conventional “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The market views, account terms, and performance-related remarks are the presenter’s claims and are not independently verified here.

Presenter/source: Omar of OmarATrades. He cites Tom Dante (Trader Dante) as a mentor and source of his EBP approach.