Bitcoin ‘May Have Seen Its Best Time’: Gold & Bitcoin Bull Exits Crypto

Finance-focused summary (key numbers, instruments, frameworks)

Macro / liquidity backdrop

• US M2 money supply:
  • Surged ~$248B in May to a record $23.1T
  • Largest monthly increase since May 2021
  • YTD up ~+$699B; biggest Jan–May increase in 5 years
• Interpretation (Florian Groomers):
  • Ongoing “money printing” supports hard assets over the longer run
  • Gold may not move linearly with M2 and is currently in a correction/breather
• Fed outlook discussion:
  • Kevin Walsh’s inflation commentary (“inflation too elevated”) was read as keeping pressure on rates
  • Groomers argues markets may underestimate how difficult the path is given debt loads
  • Fed reaction functions often aim to manage expectations, with markets expecting “rescue” if equities wobble

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Gold: trend view, downside risk, and timing signals

Core thesis

• Groomers: still a “huge secular bull market” for gold
• Current move is framed as a healthy correction after a major run

Price path and correction levels

• Gold rose from $1,615 to ~$5,600 over ~3.5 years
• He cites a correction down nearly ~30% since late January
• Possible support zone: near $4,000
• Correction could take longer than gold bulls expect: potentially Q3/Q4 or early next year for a more bullish re-setup

Downside / worst-case

• Worst-case support: ~$3,500
• He does not expect a sustained break below $3,500
  • Allows for a brief intraday/temporary dip

Near-term technical levels / confirmation points

• Stabilization may take months, with a route back toward the 200-day moving average
• If gold reclaims the 200-day moving average, the setup improves
  • He cites an approximate region of ~$4,480 “right now”
• Sentiment “bottom” signal:
  • Look for real panic/fear in gold coverage (e.g., “front page: gold will never rise again”)
  • He says these signals occur only every few years (sometimes 5–10 years)

Timing and targets

• Recovery toward ~$4,500 (200-day MA area) expected around Aug–Sep
• Possible new low in the correction during Q3/Q4, between ~$3,500 and ~$4,000
• Bull continuation targets:
  • Reclaim prior highs: expects above $5,000 and ~$5,500, potentially new ATHs within ~2 years
  • $10,000 gold: possible over ~3–5 years
  • Skeptical of hitting $10,000 within 12 months

Explicit recommendation-style stance (as described)

• “Patience + adding on dips in physical metals” (see Portfolio section)

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Gold ETF outflows vs physical demand (contrarian vs bearish)

Key numbers

• Global gold-backed ETF outflows: 38.3 tons last week
  • Largest weekly outflow since Sep 2022
  • Led by North America: ~23.6 tons
  • Asia/Europe: ~5.9 tons
  • Asia alone cited at 8.7 tons of outflows
• Dollar withdrawals: about $4.7B (largest weekly outflow on record)
• GLD:
  • ~$2B outflow last week
  • June shows ~$3.2B withdrawals, tracking its second worst month since Feb 2021
  • After a record $8.5B outflow in March (cited source: “Kesi letter”)

How he reads it

• Contrarian signal:
  • ETF holders are “weak hands” exiting after price runs
  • Western ETF buying didn’t drive the initial rally
  • Physical demand (especially Asia/central banks) did
• He distinguishes:
  • Paper gold (ETFs) vs
  • Physical delivery

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COMEX delivery as “real demand” evidence

Key numbers

• June COMEX physical deliveries:
  • Dollar value delivered: highest ever recorded for June, up ~70% YoY
  • Additional deliveries: >8,000 additional gold contracts vs a year earlier

Conclusion

• “Strong hands” are taking delivery (repeatedly implying central banks/countries as buyers)
• He argues COMEX/Western market price influence is diminishing as Asia’s physical demand dominates

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Silver: medium-term caution, strong support zones, long-term bull structure

Key levels and targets

• Silver:
  • Peaked near ~$121/oz in late January (ATH cited around $121)
  • Currently around just under $60/oz after a sharp correction
• Long-term framework:
  • Support around $50 described as a major prior breakout/inflection
    • Former ATH in 1980 and prior support in 2011
• “Cup-and-handle”:
  • ~$110 target (achieved)
  • Next larger long-run target: ~$200–$500 (years)

Near-term outlook

• Support: $55–$60 already good support, with potential test of $50
• He allows “round number” risk:
  • Price could dip below $50
  • Strong support band: ~$45–$50
• Expects silver to move back toward its 200-day moving average in weeks to ~2 months
• Another lower low possible in Q3/Q4 around ~$50, then expects a renewed rally

Time horizon / confidence

• Long-term bullish
• Mid-term cautious
• Short-term bullish near the support zone

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Equities / macro risk management: cautious stance, liquidity preference

Main risk call

• Cautious on US equities due to a parabolic run in semiconductors / AI
  • SOX ETF referenced: up ~330% over roughly 14 months
  • Described as too steep/parabolic and thus vulnerable to correction

Downside magnitude / scenarios

• He frames equity downside as potentially severe if conditions resemble 2000:
  • Crash scenario: -50% to -80%
• More benign scenario: “healthy correction” closer to:
  • ~6–8% pullback
  • He references the need to return toward the 200-day moving average to “release hot air” (no explicit numeric S&P level provided)

Timing and reassessment

• Reassess around Sept–early Oct
  • “Summer time” (next two months) take it easy; reassess by September/early October

Explicit portfolio caution

• He is more than 50% in cash (described as his largest liquidity position ever)
• He emphasizes he is not shorting the stock market
• He expects higher probability of a pullback now vs earlier

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Oil: “risk underpriced” call (macro hedge relevance)

Key numbers

• Oil described as testing a prior breakout level after dropping hard (context: Iran-war-related; “open gap” closing)
• Bounce target: ~$80

Timeline

• Expects ~$80 by late Aug / Sept
• “Latest” toward beginning of Q4, depending on negotiations/ceasefire talks

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Crypto / Bitcoin: defensive stance, “crypto winter,” no allocation

Key numbers

• Bitcoin around ~$60,000 at interview time (subtitle: “dropping below 60,000”)
• Down ~54–55% since the top last October (implying the prior peak was in that ballpark)
• Downside framing:
  • Possible it has seen its best time, but don’t bet against it blindly
  • Not seeing “final low” yet
  • Potential “final low” range: ~$50,000, possibly ~$45,000 (early/mid October seasonality cited)

Portfolio actions

• Fully out of Bitcoin and all crypto
• Sold everything in October
• Mentions stops hit around $95,000 for public portfolios, and that he had stops when exiting

Risk/why out

• Crypto winters end with a blood bath that he says he hasn’t seen yet
  • Sentiment/panic not comparable to past turning points (e.g., FTX collapse)
• Concerns:
  • Highly leveraged “famous players” (e.g., Sailor and Lee)
  • Technology risk: quantum computing potentially affecting Bitcoin cryptographic assumptions (slow upgrade problem)

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Portfolio positioning (explicit, actionable)

Metals (physical)

• Long-term physical holder of gold and silver
• Increasing physical stack on dips
• Planned adding schedule (price levels mentioned):
  • Start around ~$4,400
  • More near ~$4,000
  • More planned around ~$3,500
• Also buying platinum (no specific allocation given)

Metals share / mining exposure

• Claims ~30% already the metals
• Some mining stock exposure
• Short-term play mentioned:
  • Agnico Eagle (“Agniko Eagle” in text) as potentially “good play” if gold rallies toward ~$4,500 (next few weeks), but he remains cautious

Cash and other exposures

• Cash: >50% (highest liquidity position)
• Oil & oil/gas stocks: exposure mentioned
• Execution framework / waiting period:
  • “Take it easy” through the summer
  • More clarity at Jackson Hole (end of Aug) and Sept for equity direction

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Methodology / framework elements explicitly mentioned

Gold technical confirmation framework

• “Final confirmation” correction is over only after:
  • Reclaiming the 200-day moving average
    • Improvement threshold cited around ~$4,480
• Sentiment extremes:
  • Bottom: panic/fear in gold coverage (rare)
  • Transition: fear → greed/euphoria

Physical-demand vs paper-demand framework

• Treat ETF flows as potentially contrarian when they conflict with physical demand
• Validate with COMEX delivery data (physical receipts/contracts)

Silver technical structure approach

• Apply long-term cup-and-handle:
  • First: handle target (~$110) (hit)
  • Then: long-run cup target (~$200–$500)
• Use support zones:
  • $55–$60
  • Then $50
  • Possible shakeout: ~$45–$50
• Expect return toward the 200-day moving average in weeks to ~2 months
• Allow a Q3/Q4 retest near ~$50 before a renewed rally

Equity risk timing approach

• Increase caution in parabolic/overheated regimes (AI/semis)
• Use September/early October as reassessment window
• Compare downside severity to historical analogs (dotcom-era crash-style magnitude)

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Key numbers / targets recap (quick list)

• Gold: $1,615 → ~$5,600; correction nearly -30%
  • Support/worst-case: ~$3,500
  • Near-term support: ~$4,000
  • 200-day MA: ~$4,480
  • Recovery toward ~$4,500 by Aug–Sep
  • Possible new low: Q3/Q4 between ~$3,500–$4,000
  • Bull continuation: >$5,000–$5,500 within ~2 years
  • $10,000: ~3–5 years
• Gold ETFs: 38.3 tons outflows; ~$4.7B withdrawals; GLD ~ $2B outflow; June ~$3.2B outflows; March record $8.5B
• COMEX: June delivery value record; ~+70% YoY; >8,000 extra contracts
• Silver: peak ~$121; current just under $60
  • Support: $55–$60, then $50, possible band $45–$50
  • Next major long-run target: $200–$500
  • Return to 200-day MA in weeks–2 months
  • Possible Q3/Q4 retest near ~$50
• Bitcoin: around ~$60k; down ~54–55% since Oct top
  • Possible late-cycle lows: ~$50k, possibly ~$45k
  • Sold crypto in October
• Equities: SOX ETF ~+330% in ~14 months
  • Crash scenario -50% to -80%
  • “Normal” pullbacks referenced 6–8%, potentially to the 200-day MA
• Oil: “risk underpriced”; bounce target ~$80 by late Aug/Sept (beginning of Q4 latest)

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit “not financial advice” line appears in the provided subtitles beyond general commentary.
• The speaker explicitly states: “I’m not advising to shorting the stock market here.”

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Instruments / tickers / sectors mentioned

• Gold (spot levels referenced)
• Silver
• Bitcoin
• Crypto broadly (altcoins referenced, e.g., Solana)
• GLD (gold ETF referenced)
• S&P 500
• SOX ETF
• COMEX
• Agnico Eagle
• Oil / oil & gas stocks
• Platinum
• Central banks / Asia demand (including references to China/Shanghai Gold Exchange; Hong Kong exchange mentioned)
• US M2 money supply
• Mentions in equities context:
  • Micron
  • SpaceX

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Presenters / sources (as stated)

• Michelle McCori (“This is the real story with Michelle McCori”)
• Florian Groomers (managing director, Midas Touch Consulting; specializing in precious metals/commodities/digital assets)
• Kesi letter (cited for ETF flow data)
• Mentions of Jim Rickards (as a prior $10,000 gold remark source)
• Mentions of CFRA Research and Fidelity Investments (for “sell in May” statistics)