Why Can't Third Parties Take Off?

Summary

The video argues that while U.S. third parties (especially the Libertarian Party’s Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein) may seem to have an opening in 2016—given historically high unfavorable ratings for major-party candidates—the structural realities of U.S. politics make a breakthrough extremely unlikely.

Why third-party breakthroughs are unlikely

Two-party dominance is reinforced by electoral incentives (Duverger’s Law)

In winner-take-all systems, voters are predicted to respond strategically over time by abandoning weaker parties for those seen as viable. This “vote desertion” gradually squeezes out alternatives, leaving two dominant parties.

Voter choice is often framed as negative voting

The speaker emphasizes that many voters aren’t always selecting the candidate they like best; instead, they’re voting against the candidate they dislike.

Institutional barriers limit third-party visibility

• Presidential debates: Qualification rules are controlled by the privately run Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), which is effectively backed by the two major parties. Candidates typically must reach 15% support in multiple national polls—a high hurdle for third parties that often struggle to get polling inclusion and mainstream media coverage.
• Polling exclusion examples: The video notes that Gary Johnson was only recently included in polls, and that Jill Stein was arrested in 2012 for attempting to attend a debate she didn’t qualify for.

Money and funding disadvantages

• Major parties have more developed fundraising and media/campaign infrastructure.
• Donors are reluctant to support “losing” candidates, mirroring voters’ strategic behavior.
• Federal funding exists for qualifying parties, but third parties must have reached 5% in the previous election to qualify—something they couldn’t change even in a year with potential increased support.

Redefining “winning”

Since winning the presidency is unlikely, third parties may define success as gaining traction, visibility, and influence on the national conversation, citing historical examples such as Teddy Roosevelt and Ross Perot.

Outlook

The speaker concludes that third parties hope to build incremental support in 2016, even if their presidential efforts likely resume again in 2020.

Presenters/Contributors

• None explicitly named in the provided subtitles (no host/guest identified).