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Asia DESTROYES US Pacific Hegemony. End of Alliances | Prof. Jomo Kwame Sundaram
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Summary of the Video’s Main Points (Prof. Jomo Kwame Sundaram / Dr. Jomo Sundaram)
The discussion argues that Southeast Asia’s strategic and economic room for neutrality is shrinking due to intensifying great-power conflict in the Middle East and wider “second cold war” dynamics. At the same time, the region’s own non-alignment/neutrality principles are being tested.
1) How Wars in Iran and Ukraine Affect Malaysia and Southeast Asia
Sundaram says East and Southeast Asia depend heavily on imported fossil fuels from the Gulf, and disruptions from Iran/Ukraine have renewed pressure to accelerate the energy transition toward solar and other alternatives.
He highlights knock-on effects beyond energy, including:
- Fertilizer supply (often derived from Gulf oil/gas), affecting agriculture
- Helium imports used for refrigeration and industrial/medical uses, also largely sourced from the Gulf
These shocks can disrupt consumption and production, harming jobs and livelihoods and increasing inflation. He also notes that there is not strong anti-Iran hostility across much of the region, because many populations are Sunni and are not historically oriented toward Iran.
2) Regional Perceptions: Blame Narratives and U.S./Israel vs. Other Causes
Sundaram frames the Iran war as primarily driven by the United States and Israel, and asks whether Southeast Asia has alternative narratives.
He describes differing national contexts:
- Thailand: concerns are linked to jobs and economic disruption tied to the Israel-related conflict environment.
- Philippines: described as more supportive of the U.S.; he suggests the picture is mixed despite historical disputes over U.S. bases during the Marcos era.
- Indonesia: limited domestic survey capacity makes public opinion harder to measure; he emphasizes Indonesia’s historical stance of not hosting external military bases.
3) “Grave Concern”: U.S.-Connected Logistics and Militarization Risk via Indonesia/Straits
A key argument is that confrontation between the U.S. and Iran—along with broader regional tensions—raises the risk of Southeast Asia being pulled into conflict.
Sundaram points to reports that Indonesia has agreed to provide overflight facilities to the U.S., potentially enabling aircraft/drone movements that could support operations connected to conflict zones such as the Taiwan Strait.
He links this to earlier ASEAN ideals:
- ASEAN leaders historically aimed for a Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN).
- Yet he claims some regional states have not consistently upheld neutrality, instead expanding military access recently.
He underscores strategic geography:
Malaysia and Indonesia sit on opposite sides of the Malacca/Straits area; while alternatives exist (e.g., the Sunda route), external access across Malacca is a sensitive risk.
Overall, whether the region becomes militarized depends heavily on major ASEAN states—especially Indonesia.
4) Neutrality vs. Non-Alignment: Why the Concepts Matter, and How U.S. Transactional Ties Work
Sundaram distinguishes neutrality from non-alignment, while treating both as tools for avoiding alignment with power blocs.
He argues Indonesia’s “non-alignment” tradition is real but complicated by historical and geopolitical transactions. He provides a detailed account involving:
- Sukarno and the 1965 coup period
- U.S. involvement (as he describes it)
- later regimes
The thrust is that U.S. relationships have often been conditional and transactional, rather than purely ideological.
5) Color Revolutions and Internal Volatility Risk (U.S. Covert Destabilization Concern)
When asked about political stability, Sundaram warns that environments of political volatility and weak institutional organization can become opportunities for destabilization.
He does not offer precise predictions, but compares the unpredictability of mass movements (he cites India’s “cockroach janata” phenomenon). He emphasizes Indonesia’s archipelagic complexity and ongoing regional dissents and transformations, including:
- outer islands
- Papua
- Kalimantan’s transformation around the new capital
6) Why BRICS Hasn’t Replaced Non-Alignment and the Limits of Bloc-Building
Sundaram argues the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) has not regained influence in the same way global “alternatives” like BRICS have evolved, despite NAM’s role at the UN.
He criticizes BRICS for:
- representing more self-consciously “more well-to-do” states rather than the poorest and most precarious countries
- lacking protective action for the poorest during shocks like post-Ukraine interest-rate hikes, which he says triggered capital reversals away from vulnerable borrowers
He also argues “de-dollarization” rhetoric is overstated:
- the U.S. dollar remains dominant in international transactions
- large-scale currency displacement is unlikely soon
While payments and clearing infrastructure exist, he argues full replacement of U.S.-linked control mechanisms (including systems like SWIFT, as he describes it) is difficult.
7) Why NAM Faded After the Cold War—and What Would Be Required to Revive It
Sundaram says NAM leadership became irrelevant after the end of the first Cold War due to limited institutional capacity. He notes:
- NAM lacks a strong permanent secretariat and moves from leader to leader
- institutional erosion occurred in India (he references a NAM-tied research facility being repurposed under a later government)
- there was not a strong “reinvention” push after the early 1990s
Revival approach: a “lowest common denominator”
For revival, he suggests starting with:
- a “lowest common denominator”, since NAM already exists on paper and most countries have joined over time
- potential organizing support from G77 inside the UN system
He warns against overloading the movement with narrow ideological preconditions that become stumbling blocks.
8) Vision and Priorities: Peace First, Oppose Militarization, Challenge “Guns vs Butter”
In closing, Sundaram’s optimistic proposal is not a new bloc rivalry but:
- actively undermining militarization imperatives and war incentives in global politics
- promoting conditions for peace, rather than copying “successful resistance” models (he cites Iran as resisting without militarily achieving victory)
He criticizes what he calls military “cannibalism”—militarism framed as economic growth—invoking the classic “guns vs butter” tradeoff as something societies have stopped discussing openly.
Presenters / Contributors
- Pascal (host / interviewer, “Neutrality Studies”)
- Prof. Jomo Kwame Sundaram (Dr. Jomo Sundaram) — research adviser, Kazana Research Institute; emeritus professor, University of Malaya; former UN assistant secretary-general