Jacques Baud - L'OTAN prépare-t-elle une GUERRE sans les ÉTATS-UNIS ?

Summary

In an interview dated October 19, 2026, Jacques Baud connects three areas of international tension: conflict in the Middle East and its effects on energy markets, Europe’s growing military role, and rising friction between Washington and Kyiv. His comments are analysis and opinion; several claims in the subtitles are difficult to verify from the transcript alone.

Middle East and energy supplies

Baud argues that the conflict involving the Houthis in Yemen is distinct from Iran’s confrontation with the United States. He says the Houthis pursue their own interests against Saudi Arabia rather than simply acting as Iranian proxies. According to Baud, Houthi attacks have threatened Saudi oil infrastructure and the Bab el-Mandeb route, while Iran is using its position around the Strait of Hormuz as leverage in talks with Washington.

He warns that damage to oil facilities and transport routes could prolong shortages and worsen pressure on diesel supplies. The transcript cites a global diesel shortfall of roughly three million barrels a day and estimates of extensive damage, but these figures are presented by Baud and are not independently established in the subtitles.

France, Iran and the Pentagon report

Baud describes Iran’s summoning of the French ambassador to protest the handling of unrest in France as a pointed diplomatic reversal. France then summoned Iran’s ambassador over alleged disinformation.

He also discusses a Pentagon report on a strike on a school in Minab, Iran, which he says killed around 170 people. According to his account, the report attributed the strike to faulty intelligence, outdated imagery and excessive reliance on AI, and the administration delayed releasing it until after the US midterm elections. Baud says the episode raises broader questions about civilian casualties and compliance with the laws of war.

NATO and European defence

Baud interprets a NATO scenario for defending Europe without direct US participation as a warning that Europeans may have to bear the consequences of their own decisions rather than assume Washington will intervene. He notes that the United States is prioritising its own military stockpiles and the Indo-Pacific, while European governments are paying for some weapons sent to Ukraine.

He criticises the EU’s push to redirect spending toward defence, arguing that it could come at the expense of other priorities. He also warns that a more militarised EU could create a dilemma for Switzerland’s neutrality.

Ukraine and Washington

Baud says Kyiv depends on Western support and that President Zelensky’s strong response to a Trump–Putin energy arrangement was intended to pressure Washington. He disputes Zelensky’s claims that US intelligence or satellite access had been cut off, distinguishing the commercial Starlink service from the Pentagon’s Starshield system. He says US officials denied ordering restrictions and suggests that the dispute may instead reflect Zelensky’s effort to keep US support in place.

Baud also links Trump’s frustration to Ukraine’s continued attacks on Russian refineries, which he says add pressure to energy markets, although he considers the Middle East the principal cause of diesel disruption.

Risk of escalation involving the Baltic states

Baud alleges that Ukrainian drones have used the airspace of Baltic countries to reach targets in Russia, including the St Petersburg region. He rejects electronic warfare as an explanation for drones straying into neighbouring airspace and argues that knowingly allowing such use could make those states parties to aggression under a UN General Assembly resolution. This is Baud’s interpretation of the situation and international law, not a conclusion established by the subtitles.

Possible peace talks

Baud says Washington may be increasingly willing to negotiate with Moscow while bypassing Kyiv and the EU. He considers excluding Ukraine a mistake: in his view, a durable settlement must be agreed by Russia and Ukraine, with the United States potentially acting as mediator. He argues that peace cannot simply be imposed and suggests that negotiations may need to revisit proposals discussed by the two sides in March 2022.

Presenters and contributors

Jacques Baud; an interviewer/host who is not identified in the subtitles.