Portföljen är plus igen – så tänker jag efter Intrum-emissionen

Finance-focused summary (June monthly update)

• The presenter reports the portfolio is back in the green:

  • June performance: +4.38%
  • Year-to-date: ~+3.98% (described as “about +4%”)
  • They previously hit a drawdown around -8% (mid-May/around that period), then recovered to positive territory.

• They attribute part of the recovery to active trading/arbitrage, including:

  • Intrum-related rights/BTA mechanics
  • Other trades, including mentions of Gapwaves (position/performance) and Kinnevik (new/added holding)

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Instruments, tickers, and assets mentioned

• Intrum (primary focus; rights offering / subscription rights / BTA / conversion to shares)
  • Mentions BTAs (interim trading instrument before common shares)
  • Mentions “Intrum emission” (rights issue)
• Kinnevik (new purchase / added position)
• Millicom (multiple trades; exact listing ticker not clearly stated)
• Gapwaves (large position; swing trade component)
• Siibus (mentioned in trades context—spelling/identifier unclear)
• Nord(en) (mentioned as a European fund/holding—unclear exact ticker)
• Vanek / Vanek? (mentioned)
• Wisdom Tree (mentioned)
• ETF(s) (general reference; later notes “Straight into the ETF” — no specific ETF ticker named)
• SEK (cited throughout; also mentions “ETF dividend ETFs” but not named)
• Automotive/antennas context
  • Gapwaves and Valeo (Valeo referenced by name)

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Key numbers & explicit levels

Portfolio performance / P&L

• Worst point: ~ -8% (around mid-May/earlier in the year)
• Current year-to-date: ~ +3.98% (~+4%)
• Recovery since bottom: ~ +700,000 SEK
• Trading contribution since starting trading after the drawdown:
  • “Since I started trading…” portfolio up ~143,107 SEK
  • Of the ~700,000 SEK recovery, ~100k–150k SEK attributed to trading
• A month-level figure:
  • “73,295 SEK plus” tied to a Millicom trade sequence (wording suggests profit from that period)

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Intrum rights issue / dilution mechanics

• Rights issue subscription:
  • Oversubscribed: 139%
• Rating agencies:
  • Upgraded (still not investment grade yet; “step in right direction”)
• Timeline/event context:
  • Mentions early-year approval delay and later sign-off; rights mechanics create volatility/overhang early

Allocation / pricing / subscription set details (SEK denominated)

• Presenter’s base approach:
  • Started with 17,000 Intrum shares
  • Sold common stock and converted into subscription sets to target even lot sizes
• Subscription set conversion:
  • Described as increasing holding to 324,000 shares at one point (after even-number adjustments)
• Extra allocation purchase price (for allocations without taking subscription rights):
  • SEK 2.45 per share
• Extra allocation maximum:
  • Referenced as up to 11% of what was subscribed (capped)
• KF (tax account) swing-trade sizing:
  • Buys additional 20,000 subscription rights → increases to about 360,000 shares on that leg
  • Receives extra allocation resulting in about 39,580 additional shares (wording includes “583” but clearly indicates a share count)
• Yield figures (on the traded leg):
  • Base yield referenced around 2.87, then ~2.83 after additions
  • Presenter: “My yield is now 2.83…”
• Trading plan for the swing position:
  • Hopes to sell for around 4 SEK over 350 (phrasing is unclear; interpreted as a target near ~4 SEK and/or a threshold around 350)
• Risk note:
  • Mentions a “temporary large risk” they are willing to manage due to volatility, with an intent to reduce Intrum exposure afterward

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Intrum BTA price mention (near-term jump)

• “Spoiler” into July:
  • BTA allocated price: “a little over 3 bucks”
  • They only paid 2.45 SEK
  • Expects a portfolio jump once BTA arrives; “a few kronor” suggests a near-term mark-to-market gain (percentage not precisely quantified)

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Methodology / framework described (rights & arbitrage / positioning)

Rights issue / subscription rights arbitrage approach

• Trade subscription rights during the technical period before conversion.
• Rely on pricing differences between rights/BTA and common shares:
  • If subscription sets trade cheaper, sell common and buy subscription sets to capture spreads.
• After conversion, hold in two sleeves:
  • Long-term/base position (core exposure)
  • Shorter-term/swing trade sleeve (sell when targets/opportunities are reached)

Risk management through exposure control

• Goal: avoid being “too exposed” to Intrum long-term after the temporary swing/trading window.
• Plan after profits/conviction:
  • Let Intrum’s portfolio weight decline
  • Increase “base” holdings (notably dividend ETFs, but no specific ETF named)

New position sizing rule

• Preference for even-number share holdings (explicitly stated as a reason for transaction sizing)

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Company/sector-specific insights (non-exhaustive)

Gapwaves

• Presenter says volume production has started and describes it as “what we’ve been waiting for.”
• Mentions PMH and volume production with Fränken volume production for Valeo (spelling unclear, but Valeo is explicit).
• Capacity/scale expectations:
  • ~5 million antennas in 2024/this year vs 500,000 last year (about 10x)
  • Expects potential uplift from Q3 onward (Q2 may or may not show visible growth)
• Business/structure note:
  • Describes a royalty-heavy structure: “a lot of it is through royalty agreements… so not that much money,” but “good margin.”
• Position:
  • 36,000 shares total, with 10,000 shares as a swing trade held “a little too long”

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Kinnevik

• Added because the new CEO plans to:
  • remove “old mold that doesn’t deliver”
  • move toward more cash-flow-driven companies
• Presenter describes Kinnevik as previously “bullied” in recent years, and they want a turnaround opportunity.
• Position size:
  • “Relatively small,” with openness to increase if execution improves

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No clear “not financial advice” disclaimer was included in the subtitles provided.

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Presenters / sources

• Presenter: The same individual speaking throughout (no name given in the subtitles).