Watch This Before November 3

Summary

The presenter frames the midterm elections as a possible driver of government spending and sector-level investment flows. His main point is to consider where public money might go under different election outcomes—not to treat either outcome as a guaranteed market forecast. He estimates that the U.S. government spent about $7.5 trillion last year and describes it as the economy’s largest spender.

Possible sector impacts and ETFs

If Republicans win or retain control of Congress

The presenter expects potential support for the following sectors:

• U.S. manufacturing and reshoring: He says the U.S. produces about 3 cargo ships a year, compared with about 1,000 in China, and suggests that increased investment in domestic manufacturing could benefit the sector.

  • MADE — iShares ETF with about 112 U.S. manufacturing companies, mostly in capital goods.
  • WELD — About 22 U.S. manufacturers, with a focus on reshoring.
  • XLI — State Street industrial-sector ETF with about 83 large U.S. industrial companies.

• Oil, natural gas, and fossil-fuel energy: The presenter expects a Republican win could lead to more fossil-fuel investment and energy legislation.

  • FCG — First Trust natural-gas ETF with about 41 companies.
  • XLE — State Street energy ETF with about 21 large U.S. energy companies, including Exxon and Chevron.
  • MLPX — Global X pipeline-company ETF with about 29 companies.

• Banks and financial companies: He argues that deregulation could make lending easier and improve banks’ near-term profitability, while cautioning that it could also increase economic risks. He cites a 2018 change that raised a bank-oversight threshold from $50 billion to $250 billion in assets.

  • KBE — About 107 banking companies.
  • KRE — About 167 regional banks, according to the video.
  • KBWB — About 26 large U.S. banks, including Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs.

• Defense: The presenter cites a proposed $1.5 trillion defense investment in 2027 and says higher budgets or geopolitical tensions could support defense contractors. He mentions possible tensions involving the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, and China, while emphasizing that he is discussing financial flows rather than endorsing war.

  • ITA — iShares aerospace and defense ETF with about 50 U.S. companies; larger firms such as Lockheed Martin carry significant weight.
  • XAR — Aerospace and defense ETF with about 50 companies and a more even weighting approach.
  • SHLD — Global X defense-technology ETF with about 50 companies.

If Democrats win

The presenter expects potential support for the following sectors:

• Healthcare providers and services: He says Democrats may seek to restore healthcare tax breaks and direct more tax revenue toward healthcare, potentially benefiting hospitals and related businesses.

  • IHF — iShares healthcare providers ETF with about 61 companies, including insurers and medical-service providers.
  • XHS — State Street healthcare-services ETF with about 61 companies and relatively even weighting.
  • XHV — Described in the subtitles as a State Street healthcare ETF with about 61 large U.S. companies, emphasizing suppliers and insurers. Verify this ticker, as the subtitles may have misheard or mistyped it.

• GLP-1 and weight-loss drugs: The presenter says use of these drugs rose from 3 in 100 U.S. adults to about 11 in 100 over two years. He notes that Biden discussed Medicare and Medicaid coverage in 2024, while Trump did not adopt that coverage approach and instead proposed another way to help people pay. A Democratic win could bring renewed efforts to expand access.

  • OZM — Described as a Roundhill fund focused on GLP-1 and weight-loss-drug manufacturers and suppliers.
  • IHE — iShares pharmaceuticals ETF with about 53 U.S. pharmaceutical companies.
  • PPH — VanEck pharmaceuticals ETF with 25 large global pharmaceutical companies.

• Clean energy: The presenter says Democrats may seek to extend or expand wind and solar tax incentives, while a Republican win could lead to their removal and reduced funding for the sector.

  • ICLN — iShares global clean-energy ETF with about 103 companies and roughly 35% U.S. exposure, including companies from countries such as China and Brazil.
  • TAN — Invesco solar ETF with about 36 solar companies.
  • QCLN — First Trust clean-energy ETF with about 57 companies across areas including fuel cells, electric vehicles, and chips.

• Infrastructure and power grids: The presenter says both parties support some infrastructure investment, but characterizes Democrats as more willing to spend more, potentially even when doing so adds to inflationary pressure.

  • PAVE — Global X U.S. infrastructure ETF with about 98 companies.
  • GRID — First Trust ETF with about 122 companies involved in building or modernizing U.S. power grids.
  • IFRA — iShares infrastructure ETF with about 161 U.S. companies spanning utilities, industrials, and raw materials.

Investing framework and cautions

The presenter’s general framework is to:

• Consider how an election outcome might change government spending, taxes, regulation, or incentives.
• Identify industries that could receive increased funding or benefit from policy changes.
• Compare ETFs based on their holdings, number of companies, sector focus, and weighting approach.
• Decide whether an investment is financially viable, legally feasible, and morally acceptable to the investor.
• Do independent research and verify claims and ticker symbols. The presenter suggests using AI tools such as ChatGPT or Claude to assist with research, while stressing that results depend on how the tools are used.

These are conditional scenarios and examples, not buy recommendations. The presenter says investment returns are not guaranteed, investing involves risk, and he is not a licensed financial adviser.

The video also promotes a free AI-investing livestream scheduled for November 17 at 10:30 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, along with a free consultation service from sponsor Money Pickle for viewers with more than $100,000 in assets.

Brief exchange about the national debt

At the end, the video includes a brief, cut-off exchange about the $40 trillion national debt. A question to President Trump says the debt is growing faster than the economy; the subtitles attribute to him the remark that inflation could act as a “hidden tax.” The excerpt ends before the statement is completed.

Presenters and sources

• Presenter: Jaspreet Singh, Minority Mindset
• Other sources quoted or shown: Donald Trump and Joe Biden