Video summary

[#긴급시황] 미국에 상장 된 EWY에 역대급 돈이 몰렸다. "코스피 급등장 이유?" / 금융위기 때보다 더 저평가 된 한국증시 | 박근형 부장

Main summary

Key takeaways

News and Commentary

Market outlook (KOSPI rebound, but confidence still fragile)

  • The morning session saw KOSPI rise roughly 2%–3%, helped by:
    • Recovery in US semiconductor sentiment
    • Strength in energy stocks
  • The speaker argues the key driver is that memory/semiconductor fears eased.
    • While memory prices have fallen due to concerns around “KimiKi K3” (auto-transcribed; likely a tech/product-news risk), analysts suggest it points to larger/more memory-intensive demand, implying memory demand should keep rising, supporting the rebound.

Export data and semiconductor-linked leadership

  • Korean export data (July 1–20) was described as strong, with semiconductor indicators particularly favorable.
  • US-listed memory names also rose (e.g., Micron up ~2%), reinforcing the view that semiconductors are leading the rebound.
  • In Korea, semiconductor/IT stocks were cited as early rebound leaders, including:
    • Samsung Electronics
    • SK Hynix
    • SK Square
    • Samsung Materials
    • Others (unspecified)

Valuation argument: “severely undervalued,” but policy momentum matters

  • The speaker emphasizes Korean market valuations remain extremely low:
    • KOSPI valuation around ~5.5x (trailing P/E mentioned as “Ford PR”), compared against historical troughs.
  • The main problem is framed as not fundamentals collapsing, but instead:
    • Investor sentiment
    • “Trust/momentum”
  • They express disappointment with last week’s leverage-related policy measures, noting retail investors reacted with strong dissatisfaction (wanting to “sell at once”).
  • They also reference expectations/political comments that President Lee Jae-myung may take a more proactive/bolder approach to restore confidence—potentially supporting sentiment.

Near-term catalyst: major earnings and CAPEX expectations (Alphabet)

  • This week is described as a potential turning point due to upcoming big-tech earnings, especially Alphabet (earnings “coming up,” with 21st mentioned).
  • The speaker is watching whether management may reduce CAPEX.
    • If CAPEX is cut, it’s not straightforward to fund it with new bond issuance, so they view CAPEX guidance as important for semiconductor sentiment.

Technical/price-action view: need a “multiple bottom”

  • The speaker suggests a reliable short-term bottom could form if KOSPI holds around ~6,500 without breaking below the mid-6,400 prior low, then rebounds.
  • They argue a “multiple bottom” this week would matter for a stronger rebound.
  • They discuss step-by-step resistance/targets:
    • ~7,400
    • Then ~8,100–8,200
    • If cleared, a path toward ~9,000

Trading/positioning indicators: leverage unwinding may reduce volatility

  • Foreign investors are described as:
    • Conservatively buying spot (roughly 260–255B KRW)
    • Also buying futures/options with a short-term upside bias (call buying vs put selling)
  • Leverage (concentration) unwinding:
    • Single-stock leverage AUM fell sharply (from ~16.5T KRW to ~9.1T KRW)
    • The speaker expects reduced concentration could lower volatility versus earlier periods
  • Inverse ETF exposure is rising and could later be unwound if confidence improves, potentially contributing to a sharper rebound.

ETF inflows specifically: EWY (Korean-market ETF) surge

  • A major focus is EWY (US-listed ETF tracking Korea).
    • Inflows are described as near $3 billion
    • This is characterized as the largest since around 2000 (in weekly terms)
  • Interpretation:
    • Foreign investors appear to be concluding the Korean market is now “worth buying at this level.”
    • This supports the idea that a bottom may be secured, followed by bargain buying.

Semiconductor history pattern after sharp drops

  • The speaker references historical, Bloomberg-style studies for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index after a decline of >20%.
  • Past episodes show rebound odds were high over weeks to months, including:
    • Patterns over ~5 days
    • Over ~1 month
    • And over ~60 days
  • Applying this to current conditions:
    • With Korean large caps (Samsung Electronics/SK Hynix) down heavily from peaks, the speaker expects rebound potential remains.

Sector breadth: what’s improving vs what’s weak

Positively mentioned

  • Large-cap semiconductors (seen as the core engine of stabilization)
  • Certain consumer/export-linked names, including:
    • Department stores
    • Cosmetics/beauty/equipment-oriented exporters
    • Dalba Global (mentioned)
  • Pharma-related names possibly showing improvement
  • Robotics, noted due to Samsung Electronics establishing an RX business development office under the CEO
    • However, the speaker says KOSDAQ supply/demand is still weak

Weak/negative

  • KOSDAQ pharma/biotech described as struggling, including:
    • Corum TissueGene (referenced)
    • “3rd Floor Pharmaceuticals” hitting a shock
  • The KOSDAQ index was described as hitting a new 52-week low during the session

Bottom line

  • Overall thesis: Korea looks undervalued, with improving export/DRAM price signals.
  • Additional supportive factors:
    • Foreign ETF inflows (EWY)
    • Semiconductor rebound mechanics
  • Key caveat: market “trust” isn’t fully restored, due to prior policy disappointment and leverage-related investor fatigue.
  • Therefore, the rebound depends on:
    • Sentiment recovery
    • This week’s catalysts (notably big-tech CAPEX guidance)
    • The market holding key support levels

Presenters or contributors

  • 박근형 부장 (Park Geun-hyeong, department manager)

Original video