Israel and Turkey Call Dibs on Syria || Peter Zeihan

Overview

Peter Zeihan argues that recent Israeli strikes in Syria—especially around Idlib in the country’s northwest—signal a growing confrontation with Turkey over Syria’s future, rather than a single, isolated campaign.

Background: Shift in Control (Idlib and the Assad Era)

• The civil war’s dynamics changed as Turkey became more deeply involved.
• Turkey provided intelligence and weapons and supported a series of blitz attacks.
• These actions helped weaken and overthrow Assad’s government in the region.

Current Israeli Posture

Zeihan says Israel is pre-emptively bombing locations it believes Turkey is preparing to:

• enter or use, and
• establish air-denial capabilities or station aircraft.

The goal, in this view, is to prevent Turkish power projection.

Turkish Response

• Turkey rejects Israel’s assumptions.
• It frames the strikes as unnecessary or unfounded.

Core Thesis: Competing Long-Term Interests

Zeihan’s central analysis is that this is a strategic conflict of interests.

• He describes Syria as an “artificial state” that persisted for long because of globalization and foreign support, which enabled logistics and influence (including Russia and Iran as examples).
• As those conditions erode, Syria is sliding back toward a “no-man’s land” scenario.
• That could set up a second stage of civil war.

What Each Country Wants to Achieve

• Israel

  • Seeks to keep the whole country as a no-fly zone.
  • Aims to ensure any future Syrian entity remains too weak to threaten Israel.

• Turkey

  • Wants to address refugees on its southern border.
  • Also wants to create a power-projection bubble to operate over Syria with reduced risk.
  • This includes building an institutional presence for air defense/air assets.

Likelihood of Escalation

Zeihan suggests escalation may not require a direct military clash, but that:

• Israel and Turkey are likely to keep pressing against each other across the region.
• He notes that after the Iran conflict, Israel appears more willing to act.
• He also suggests Israel’s election season may further incentivize a tougher stance toward Turkey.

Presenters / Contributors

• Peter Zeihan