ДУМАЕМ ВМЕСТЕ С ЛАРИСОЙ ВОЛОШИНОЙ

Overview

The video is a live talk show in Kyiv (19:30), hosted by Igor Yakovenko, with guest Larisa Voloshina. The discussion focuses on U.S. politics and the potential for Ukraine–Russia “ceasefire/energy truce” talks involving Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, including broader implications for sanctions, arms deliveries, and Ukraine–U.S. cooperation.

Main points and arguments

1) Trump, U.S. media, and potential electoral impact

• Voloshina argues that after Trump’s conflict with major U.S. media outlets, his political situation is worsening.
• She suggests Republicans may increasingly doubt Trump’s approach.
• She claims voter behavior is driven more by domestic economics than by foreign policy narratives (“votes with his wallet and stomach”).
• She adds that even Republican media (e.g., Fox News) have shifted toward emphasizing the consequences of Trump’s policies (such as rising prices), while some outlets continue to cover him obsessively.

2) The proposed “energy truce” is framed as an ultimatum, not a real ceasefire

Voloshina argues the proposal is not balanced negotiation:

• She says Trump will pressure both sides to accept a deal, but this is not genuine bargaining with equitable leverage.
• She rejects the idea that Trump is trying to pressure Vladimir Putin into concessions.
• Instead, she characterizes Trump’s method as:
  • blackmail-style bargaining,
  • avoiding concrete guarantees and monitoring mechanisms,
  • and treating the U.S. role as non-binding.
• A key claim is that without security guarantees and monitoring:
  • Ukraine would be forced to comply,
  • while Russia would not.
• She compares this to the failure of the UN-brokered grain arrangement, noting that Russia attacked shortly after signing.
• She emphasizes a structural difference: European proposals reportedly require U.S. guarantees and satellite monitoring, while Trump’s position (as she describes it) omits those elements.

3) Why Zelensky’s meeting with Trump is expected to yield no substantive results

• Voloshina says Zelensky’s goal will likely be to restate Ukraine’s position: a ceasefire only with guarantees and monitoring backed by the U.S.
• She expects a “ritual” meeting—focused on maintaining process and appearances rather than reaching an agreement.
• She argues Ukraine’s conditions are “disarming” in tone but incompatible with Moscow’s stance on guarantees, citing Moscow claims that any European troop presence would be treated as a “war” act.

4) Territorial terms and “peace agreement” content are portrayed as unacceptable to Ukraine

• Voloshina criticizes claims (including via Kushner) that an “agreement” could be created quickly if Ukraine withdraws troops from Donbas.
• She argues the underlying “peace” proposal would effectively require recognition of Russian “territorial realities” (as she characterizes Putin’s demands).
• She states Ukraine insists on borders recognized internationally (the 1991 borders).
• She also argues that negotiations “under fire” imply there will be no ceasefire during talks, enabling Russia to extract more.

5) Trump’s approach to sanctions and arms agreements is framed as disruptive and pro-Russian in effect

• She discusses Trump’s stance toward sanctions, claiming that while he signals willingness to impose them, he uses political leverage to target Ukraine-supporting countries rather than China or India (as she interprets his likely targets).
• Regarding air-defense missiles (PAC-2/PAC-3), she claims Trump’s public statements could delay licensing and complicate transfers.
• She argues that contracts and licensing arrangements are being undermined, affecting immediate winter readiness and Ukraine’s protection.

6) Budanov’s alleged U.S. mission and “America beyond Trump”

• Voloshina addresses claims that Ukrainian intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov is in the U.S., suggesting he may have separate contacts within U.S. military/intelligence circles.
• She offers an example involving S-300 production, arguing that U.S. contracts and production capabilities cannot easily be stopped due to existing obligations and business/institutional interests.
• Her overarching thesis: even if Trump personally blocks certain actions, other U.S. stakeholders may continue cooperating with Ukraine effectively.

7) Artificial intelligence talks and continuation of the tariffs moratorium

She expects Trump and Xi (referred to as “Sizinpin” in subtitles) to discuss:

• rules/regulation for AI,
• and extending a tariff moratorium (she reminds that tariffs were already imposed at high levels, then paused via a moratorium ending in November).

Her assessment:

• True AI regulation is unlikely due to lack of mutual control; she claims both sides would resist allowing the other to oversee AI.
• She predicts the AI framework discussion may favor China because:
  • China controls key raw materials,
  • and has more stable access to advanced chip supply (as she describes it).

8) Sanctions relief for specific Russian-linked oligarchs and the logic behind EU decisions

• Voloshina explains that sanctions on two Russian oligarchs (Usmanov and Fridman) were lifted for political reasons connected to a European bargaining process and a new multi-year sanctions framework.
• She emphasizes that even if these individuals are unblocked, broader sanctions remain.
• She argues the change reduces the risk of renegotiation every six months.
• She characterizes it as a bitter but pragmatic diplomatic compromise—favoring predictability (three-year extension rather than repeated renewals).

9) Belarus and sanctions-evasion windows

• In the closing “what we haven’t covered” segment, Voloshina suggests Zelensky met with Radcliffe (on the way to New York), but says the topic is unclear.
• She claims Trump’s statements indicate continued economic bypass opportunities involving Belarus—for example, fertilizer purchases from Belarus instead of Canada.
• She portrays Belarus as a “sanctions bypass window” used by Russia.
• She argues this makes it harder for Belarus to serve as an offensive platform against Europe because it is already “occupied” by economic/routing interests.

Presenters / contributors

• Igor Yakovenko — presenter/host
• Larisa Voloshina — guest/contributor