It Took Me 10 Years to Perfect This 9-21 EMA Strategy | Ft. Dhananjay Pawar

Finance-Focused Summary

Dhananjay Pawar, also known as “Trade Hunter,” explains a 9- and 21-period EMA crossover setup that he says he has refined over roughly four years for intraday trading in Indian indices. His main point is that trading every crossover can lead to repeated losses in sideways markets. He therefore combines crossovers with price-action confirmation, pullback entries, and risk controls.

Instruments and Markets

• Nifty, Sensex, and Bank Nifty
• Index options, including options on Nifty and Sensex
• Pawar says Bank Nifty weekly expiry had been discontinued, and describes Nifty and Sensex as alternatives with weekly expiries. This is his statement in the video and has not been independently verified here.
• He says Sensex has adequate liquidity and volatility for his approach, while Nifty behaves somewhat differently and may require adjustments.

Strategy Framework

1. Set up the chart: Apply 9- and 21-period exponential moving averages (EMAs) on a 3-minute chart. Pawar says 1-minute charts produced too many noisy signals and trades.
2. Treat a crossover as a signal to assess, not an automatic entry. Basic crossover systems, he warns, can incur repeated stop-outs in choppy or sideways conditions.
3. Look for confirmation:
   • Identify a meaningful swing or reversal area around the crossover.
   • Preferably wait for a pullback after the crossover.
   • Mark the pullback’s high or low, then enter only when price breaks it in the direction of the trend and the EMA sequence remains aligned.
   • A fresh opposite crossover invalidates the prior setup.
4. Assess price action and momentum. Pawar considers candle structure, closing levels, the size and direction of recent candles, and whether price is moving with force. Without strong momentum, he generally waits for the candle to close. In a clear, forceful move, he may enter while a candle is still forming. He says this judgment depends on experience and cautions against chasing moves where a sensible stop cannot be placed.
5. Set an index-based stop: He cites a typical range of 130–180 points, often using 150 points. He prefers a nearby meaningful swing point when one is available; otherwise, he uses a standard stop. These figures refer to index points, not option-premium points.
6. Target at least a 1:2 risk/reward ratio. He describes this as his minimum criterion for considering a trade successful.
7. Manage the position: One example is to book 50% at 1R and manage the rest with a stop. At 2R, he may take further profit or trail the remaining quantity. He says trailing can allow a trade to reach 3R, 4R, or more, depending on market conditions. In his example, a 150-point risk equates to 300 points at 2R.
8. Consider re-entry only in a strong one-way trend. Pawar describes this as a more advanced option after a profitable primary trade, with part of the earlier gains used as the risk budget.

Pawar does not use RSI as a required filter; he prefers price action. He also says gaps need separate consideration, including the prior close, the opening gap, and subsequent market behavior, rather than mechanically applying the crossover rules.

Performance Claims and Examples

• Pawar estimates that waiting for a swing or pullback allows a trade to reach 1:1 about 75–80% of the time. He distinguishes this from claiming an 80% overall accuracy rate.
• He also discusses roughly 60–65% profitable trades under one interpretation of his results and an adjusted win rate above 70% when breakeven trades are excluded. The definitions and calculations are not fully clear in the subtitles, so these should be treated as his estimates, not independently verified performance.
• He says he tested 100 entries on a continuous chart, selected from more than 150 crossovers. Many crossovers did not trigger an entry under his rules. No detailed backtest methodology or independently verified results are provided.
• In an example trade dated October 8, described as a Thursday expiry-day session, he entered during a strong downward move. He says the candle was around 200 points, the eventual entry was roughly 25–30 points below the initially observed level, and the stop was adjusted to 180 points after a 210-point stop appeared too wide. He reports reaching 2R and booking around 2.5R.
• He illustrates that a 150-point risk followed by a 900-point move would represent approximately 6:1 risk/reward, while emphasizing that such extensions are not guaranteed.

Risk Management and Cautions

Pawar says risk management and money management matter more than the indicator choice, describing the strategy as only part of the overall trading process. He stresses defining the exit and stop before entering, managing losing trades, and avoiding impulsive crossover entries.

He recounts early losses after initial profits, including borrowed capital being wiped out in 26 days, and says poor position sizing contributed to an early drawdown. He mentions a later ₹1 lakh capital contribution from his brother and an initial drawdown of about ₹23,000; part of the drawdown figure in the subtitles is unclear.

The episode promotes a paid course covering the strategy, re-entries, gap scenarios, and other details. No explicit “not financial advice” disclaimer appears in the subtitles. The performance estimates and strategy examples are the guest’s claims and are not independently verified.

Presenters and Sources

• Guest: Dhananjay Pawar, also known as Trade Hunter
• Channel/podcast source: Upsurge Club; the host is not named in the subtitles
• Other source cited by the guest: Trader and educator Adam Khoo, whom Pawar credits as an influence on his risk-management approach.