US in 'panic' at prospect of Gulf States going it alone, analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

Focus of the Segment

The segment highlights U.S. efforts—through Marco Rubio’s three-day Middle East trip—to reassure Gulf states that a U.S.-brokered framework to end the war with Iran will not compromise their security.

Rubio’s Goal and Tour Stops

• Stated goal: Rubio argues that the U.S. will not undermine the security of Gulf allies.
• Tour stops: Kuwait, the UAE, and Bahrain.
• Underlying concern: Gulf partners worry the initial deal may be too “soft” toward Iran.

Gulf Allies’ Core Worries

An analyst says Gulf states are less concerned about the existence of a memorandum of understanding and more focused on the risk of renewed war, given Iran’s repeated strikes.

Key anxieties include:

• Iran’s missiles and drones and its regional proxies
• Iran’s ability to impose fees on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz
• Uncertainty around Iran’s nuclear inspections and timelines
  • The UN nuclear watchdog indicates inspections will occur, but without a clear schedule

U.S. Concern About “Going It Alone”

A central theme is that Gulf governments might seek alternate security arrangements if they believe the U.S. is not firm enough.

• The analyst links this to White House “panic”—attempts to keep Gulf states aligned so they do not move toward other blocs that could undercut U.S. influence
• This includes concern that the Trump-era Abraham Accords may be viewed as at risk of becoming irrelevant

Possible Alternative Security Structures

The analyst points to a quadripartite arrangement involving:

• Egypt
• Saudi Arabia
• Pakistan
• Turkey

She also notes reports that Saudi Arabia may be gathering regional leaders to explore whether the arrangement could expand—potentially including Iran—to prevent future destabilization of the Gulf.

Israel and Lebanon as a Destabilizing Pressure Point

The discussion emphasizes tensions between Israel and the U.S., and claims Iran is using Lebanon as leverage within the broader framework.

The analyst argues Netanyahu faces a dilemma in Lebanon:

• Hezbollah continues fighting and creating domestic political pressure
• Iran conditions elements of regional normalization (including Strait of Hormuz traffic) on developments in Lebanon

Internal Politics in Iran and the U.S.

• Hardliners in both Washington and Tehran oppose engagement, but are said to be held back by more influential decision-makers.
• Iran: public debate appears tightly managed, including state media cutting off a hardliner opposing the deal.
• U.S.: the analyst argues messaging is erratic, including social media posts that—she claims—go beyond the memorandum and frustrate Iranian negotiators.

Likelihood of a “Lasting Peace” in 60 Days

The analyst is skeptical that a durable agreement can be reached quickly.

She suggests that in 60 days, outcomes may be limited to:

• Sanctions relief and stabilization effects (including oil price impacts)
• Starting work toward nuclear issues, described as “low-hanging fruit”
• However, she emphasizes Iran’s primary aim:
  • unfrozen assets, sanction waivers, and economic relief
• She also notes Iran may prepare—if necessary—to strengthen missile/drone capabilities for future conflict

Negotiation Process and Trust-Building

The analyst contends that neutral partners (including Pakistan and Qatar) view Iran as negotiating “normally.”

She argues the main disruption is Trump’s unpredictability, contrasting it with Iran’s earlier experience during the Obama-era, when negotiations with the U.S. involved longer trust-building efforts.

Presenters or Contributors

• Monty Francis (news presenter/interviewer)
• Borzu Deragahi (journalist; author of the Badlands newsletter)