Bitcoin: Where I Went Wrong

Finance-focused summary (Bitcoin / macro / rates / dollar)

Current market context & key observations

• Bitcoin price level: trading around $86,000.
• The speaker says they were wrong about Bitcoin breaking a key technical level:
  • They previously expected Bitcoin could not break the May high, but it did.
• Macro thesis that failed:
  • Expected chain: rising energy prices → higher yields (10Y/30Y) → Fed rate hikes (starting in September) → stronger USD → Bitcoin weakness.
  • The speaker claims this link did not play out as expected, noting Bitcoin rose alongside the dollar.

Assets / tickers / instruments mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Energy ETF: XLE
• Bonds / yield benchmarks: 10-year bonds and 30-year bonds
• U.S. dollar (USD) (including chart/pattern discussion)
• Risk assets / equity indices: S&P 500, NASDAQ
• Stablecoin / dominance concept: USDT dominance
  • Mentions USDC dominance as a familiar analog
• Realized price (Bitcoin metric discussed conceptually)

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Key macro/market relationships and numbers mentioned

Bond yields

• 10-year yields: reaching around ~5%.
• 30-year bonds: set new highs.

Timing frameworks (repeated)

• Fed rate hike timing: expected to begin in September (and revisited around “interim year” September hikes).
• Bitcoin seasonality in midterm-election years:
  • February: often forms a low
  • Summer: another low
  • Late September / Q4: tends to bring weakness (though not reliably)
• The speaker repeatedly emphasizes “fourth quarter” as the period where final weakness may appear.

Bitcoin rebound magnitude (comparative)

• Bitcoin is up about ~50% from its summer low—described as a bigger rebound than in the prior two midterm election years.

Historical performance expectations referenced

• Typical expectation: roughly ~40% growth from midterm-year lows into the next phase.
• Prior midterm years:
  • 2018: ~40% (up to 45%) from lows
  • 2022: ~40% from lows

Past incorrect call

• In 2023, the speaker said Bitcoin would not exceed $35,000 by year-end; it broke that level.
• They reference audience backlash around late 2023 / October.

Rate-hike cycle ROI / drawdown references (qualitative)

• Rate-hike cycles discussed:
  • Dec 2015
  • Mar 2022
• Key point: Bitcoin often did not fall immediately after the first hikes—bottoms sometimes formed already.
• 2022 example: after a rate hike, Bitcoin dropped about ~15% from the rate-hike level (not necessarily a new low).

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Methodology / framework(s) used or discussed

1) “Macro puzzle” chain (attempted, later admitted failure)

• Energy prices rise (example: XLE performs well) → higher yields (especially 10Y ~5%, 30Y new highs) → higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes (expected starting in September) → USD strengthens → Bitcoin should fall / revalue downward

Outcome: the speaker says the expected USD → BTC weakness relationship did not occur.

2) Dollar vs Bitcoin technical/seasonal divergence check

• Compared dollar behavior to earlier episodes:
  • Earlier instance (May): USD rose after a double-bottom → Bitcoin fell
  • Current instance: USD rose after a similar double-bottom → Bitcoin rose
• Conclusion: “something has clearly changed,” with more correlation to traditional markets.

3) Midterm-election-year seasonal approach

• Observes recurring behavior:
  • February lows → summer lows → possible additional weakness around late September / Q4
• However, they question their historical assumption because rebound strength appears stronger than prior midterm years.

4) Historical rate-hike/ROI patterning

• Examined prior Fed hiking cycles and BTC behavior after the first hike:
  • Bitcoin often doesn’t fall right away; negative effects, if they show up, may be delayed.

5) Technical/cycle confirmation concepts

• Golden cross mentioned as supportive of bullish follow-through (the speaker argues it aligned with the view that BTC could rise).
• Market structure rule: after breakout and a higher high, they emphasize respecting new market structure rather than being categorical.

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Key recommendations / cautions (explicit stance changes)

• Reduced reliance on their own short-term model
  • “In the short term, I don’t think you should rely on me.”
  • They advise listening to others who may have predicted outcomes better.
• Do not assume a lower low automatically
  • If weakness appears, it could form a higher low (macro higher-low scenario), not necessarily a retest to prior lows.
• If weakness happens, it should align with stock correction
  • Q4 BTC weakness would likely coincide with a stock market correction.
  • Example claim: an S&P 500 decline of only ~10% may be insufficient to push BTC to new lows; larger equity drawdowns could be needed.
• Still favors historical DCA (cost averaging)
  • They frame DCA as the “historically correct” approach: cost average during the second half of the mid-cycle year, then hope for favorable outcomes.
  • Admissions:
    • DCA worked poorly for them in 2018 and 2022
    • In 2026, they exited quickly after only ~5 days because price rose and they didn’t want to chase

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Disclosures / disclaimers

• No explicit, formal “financial advice” disclaimer is included in the provided subtitle excerpt.
• The speaker repeatedly frames statements as personal reflection and historical inference (e.g., noting limited authority and encouraging listeners to rely on other predictors).

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Presenters / sources mentioned

• Michael Saylor (referenced in conference context)
• Grant Cardon (referenced in conference context)

• Conference lineup also mentioned (roles not clearly defined as analysts vs speakers): Mark Jusko, Alessio, James, Mike Macklowe, Guy, Rob, Gareth, David, Jason, Leah, Tom, FA, Randy, Evan, Dana, Matt Crosby, Mauricio

• The speaker’s name is not stated in the subtitles excerpt.