The Smart Money Just Doubled Down

Summary

The video reviews recent 13F filings and other disclosed positions for Bill Ackman, Mohnish Pabrai, Michael Burry, Masayoshi Son, and Berkshire Hathaway. Its main theme is that these investors are taking very different approaches to AI, valuation, cash flow, and risk.

Important context: 13F filings are published up to 45 days after quarter-end, so they provide lagged snapshots rather than real-time records. The presenter also says some of Burry’s positions come from his private Substack posts, not SEC filings, and their exact sizes are unknown.

Investor moves

Bill Ackman / Pershing Square

• Added six positions: Netflix, Visa, Mastercard, Alcon, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), and S&P Global (SPGI). The video characterizes these as businesses with recurring demand, cash flows, or valuable financial data.
• Increased holdings in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Uber (UBER). He retained a large Amazon (AMZN) stake, though he reportedly trimmed it by about 25%.
• Sold the remainder of his Alphabet/Google (GOOGL/GOOG) position. The presenter interprets this as reallocating to other AI-related companies rather than rejecting Google’s business.
• Increased Restaurant Brands International (QSR) by 14%. Ackman reportedly cited its 17× earnings multiple as a discount to peers and its intrinsic value.
• The video recalls Ackman’s pandemic hedge, which reportedly turned $27 million into $2.6 billion.

Mohnish Pabrai

• The video describes a highly concentrated portfolio, with four positions across coal, offshore drilling, and fintech. Most holdings were unchanged.
• Coal is presented as an unpopular area, but the video points to ongoing global coal capacity and demand growth in Asia, as well as rising electricity needs from AI data centers. Warrior Met Coal (HCC) reportedly rose 67% over the prior year.
• Held about $100 million of Transocean (RIG), an offshore drilling company. The presenter links its recent strength to higher oil prices.
• Opened a small $147,000 position in Kaspi (KSPI), a Kazakhstan fintech “super app.” Pabrai reportedly focuses on its cash generation—said to be around $2 billion—and a share-price decline after the company suspended dividends to fund an acquisition. The video says a large investment by WeChat’s parent helped draw attention to the shares.
• The presenter speculates that Pabrai may have added to Kaspi after quarter-end, but the filing cannot confirm this.

Michael Burry

• His equity holdings reportedly include PayPal (PYPL), Adobe (ADBE), Flutter (FLUT), and Lululemon (LULU). Lululemon is said to have fallen more than 65% over the prior year and to trade below 10× earnings.
• His largest disclosed short is described as SOXX, the semiconductor ETF. The presenter says Burry sees circular financing among AI companies and chip suppliers as potentially exaggerating the strength of the AI investment cycle. SOXX had risen more than 100% over the prior year.
• Other reported bearish positions include Micron (MU), Nebius (NBIS), Nvidia (NVDA), Oracle (ORCL), and Palantir (PLTR). Earlier positions reportedly included bearish bets on Tesla (TSLA) and Applied Materials (AMAT).
• Burry reportedly closed SOXX put options at a loss as semiconductor stocks continued rising, then shifted the funds into a bet against QQQ, the Nasdaq-100 ETF. The video also recalls earlier reported puts against Nvidia and Palantir, potentially worth up to $1 billion in a best-case scenario.
• The presenter emphasizes that these bearish trades involve both direction and timing risk, and says they are not a strategy he would personally copy.

Masayoshi Son / SoftBank

• Intel (INTC) is described as a roughly $12 billion position and 66% of SoftBank’s US portfolio. The video also cites a $1.6 billion position in T-Mobile (TMUS).
• Other AI-related holdings named are AMD (AMD), Symbotic (SYM), Tempus AI (TEM), and TSMC (TSM). Symbotic is described as his second-largest US position.
• Opened smaller positions in Capital One (COF) and Life360; exited 21st Century Fox, reduced TSMC by 71%, and trimmed Satellogic (SATL) by 6%.
• The video says SoftBank’s much larger OpenAI investment—reported as $64 billion, with another $30 billion planned in 2026—is not shown in the 13F. It also says SoftBank owns about 90% of ARM Holdings (ARM).
• The presenter frames these concentrated stakes as potentially highly rewarding but difficult to unwind if the thesis goes wrong. Historical examples cited include a $20 million Alibaba investment that later reached $75 billion, and an $11 billion loss on WeWork.

Berkshire Hathaway

• After selling more stock than it bought for 14 consecutive quarters, Berkshire reportedly bought more than it sold for the first time in three and a half years, putting over $23.5 billion into the market. Its cash pile had exceeded $380 billion.
• Its largest reported purchase was about $17 billion of Alphabet. Warren Buffett said in a CNBC interview that he initiated the position.
• The video also cites a $6.8 billion Taylor Morrison transaction and roughly $1.6 billion in Delta Air Lines (DAL). It links housing-related investments to a stated US shortage of about 4.7 million homes, and says Berkshire also added to NVR (NVR) and “LAR Corp” (as rendered in the subtitles).
• Berkshire reportedly halved its stakes in Capital One and “New Core Holdings” (as rendered in the subtitles), and reduced Kroger (KR) and Bank of America (BAC).
• It also bought back $4.5 billion of Berkshire shares. The presenter suggests this could signal confidence in the company or management’s view that Berkshire itself is attractively valued.
• Greg Abel is described as taking on a larger role while Buffett remains involved.

Framework and lessons presented

• Conviction is not permission to overpay: Ackman’s examples emphasize comparing valuation with business quality and seeking a margin of safety.
• Look for cash flow in unpopular places: Pabrai’s coal, offshore-drilling, and Kaspi examples illustrate looking beyond fashionable sectors and familiar markets.
• Question the crowd, but respect timing risk: Burry’s bearish AI and semiconductor thesis may identify valuation or financing risks, but short positions and puts can lose money if the market rises or a decline comes too late.
• Big bets cut both ways: Son’s concentrated holdings can generate outsized gains, but also create substantial downside and liquidity risk.
• Think in decades, not quarters: The presenter argues that Berkshire’s long period of net selling may matter less if its capital allocation produces long-term returns.

Disclosures and cautions

• The video is sponsored by FitNexa; the sponsor segment promotes sleep earbuds.
• The presenter notes that 13F data is delayed and that Burry’s non-SEC positions are based on his own posts, with incomplete information about their size.
• The presenter explicitly cautions against copying Burry’s market-timing trades. There is no explicit general “not financial advice” disclaimer in the subtitles.

Presenter and sources

Presenter: Kuran Francis (Fin Tek, according to the video metadata).

Sources referenced: SEC Form 13F filings; Michael Burry’s paid Substack posts; a Pabrai interview with New Money; Warren Buffett’s interview with CNBC.