💰پیش بینی قیمت بیت کوین (BTC)29 بهمن 1404- نوسان BTC به‌دلیل خروج اهرم‌ معامله و ریسک‌گریزی بازار

Bitcoin (BTC) technical / liquidity analysis

Video dated Feb 18 / 29 Bahman 1404

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Assets / instruments mentioned

• Bitcoin (BTC)
• Perpetual futures / liquidation levels
• Market sessions: London session, New York session
• Technical concepts / frameworks: order blocks, rejection blocks, liquidity pool collection, market structure shifts (MS), IC and Smart Money systems
• Indicators referenced: “IC Killzone Tiff Lab”, Perpetual Liquidity Levels, ARC candles

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High-level market view

• Overall bias: Bearish. Liquidity and selling pressure are concentrated on the sell side; price is consolidating after a downtrend.
• Multi-timeframe structure:
  • 4-hour (4H): Descending channel with lower highs and lower lows.
  • 1-hour (1H): Aggressive down moves with pullbacks into order blocks and short upward corrections.
  • 15-minute (15m): Intra-session accumulation and a London-session bullish impulse that met prior resistance.

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Key price levels and ranges

Note: Several automatically generated subtitle values appear garbled (characters like “H”, truncations). Verify on-chart before trading.

• Swing low cited (bearish confirmation level): ~66,607 — price must break this to confirm further downside.
• Resistance / bullish-break levels (transcript unclear): “68xx” (shown as “6834” in subtitles) and ~70,219 — moving above these would imply a bullish bias.
• High-importance downside target / liquidity-collection zone: ~65,350 to ~66,300 (order-block / liquidity collection).
• Additional order-block / target levels referenced (variants in transcript): ~65,100, ~66,100, ~66,300.
• Stop-loss guidance: place behind the swing high/low or behind the rejection-block area (examples in transcript include corrupted strings like “69H29” — confirm exact level on chart).

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Targets / expected moves

• Primary (bearish) scenario:
  • Price is expected to be attracted downwards to collect sell-side liquidity in the ~65,350–66,300 area (and nearby order blocks). After liquidity collection, price may continue the primary downtrend.
• Alternate (bullish) scenario:
  • If liquidity/sentiment flips and price moves above the cited resistance levels (~68xx and ~70,219 in the transcript), BTC could shift to a bullish bias and target higher rejection-block zones.
• Session-level behavior:
  • London-session rejection / BPR areas can produce short-term reactions. An aggressive London move collected buy liquidity and met the prior session ceiling, which could lead into a New York-session sell-off.

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Methodology / trading framework

• Multi-timeframe analysis:
  • Use 4H for trend/structure, 1H for order blocks and MS breaks, 15m for session entries and Killzone setups.
• Liquidity-first approach:
  • Identify liquidity concentrations (buy-side or sell-side) and expect price to be attracted to collect liquidity before major moves.
• Order blocks and MS (market structure) rules:
  • Watch order blocks (4H and 1H optimized) as entry and target zones.
  • Use market structure shifts (CIS/CIC / break-of-structure) as confirmation triggers:
    • If MS breaks lower and liquidity is collected → favor shorts.
    • If MS breaks higher above key resistance → consider longs.
• Entry mechanics:
  • Short entries: look for weakness after upward corrections into order/rejection blocks.
  • Long entries: wait for price to enter an order block and break a CIS level or show clear MS shift.
• Risk management:
  • Stop-loss behind the relevant swing high/low or behind the rejection block.
  • Suggested risk-reward ratios: 1:1 or 1:2.
• Session timing:
  • Use Killzone / London reaction areas for entry timing on the 15m frame.

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Explicit recommendations and cautions

• Recommendation: Do not seek buy positions while the market shows bearish liquidity distribution; focus on sell setups.
• Caution: If price breaks and holds above the named resistance levels with bullish momentum (confirmed by ARC candles or MS shifts), bias can flip and long targets (rejection-blocks) become relevant.
• Emphasized practice: Confirm entries using structure breaks and liquidity collection; place stops behind clear swing or rejection areas.

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Indicators / tools named

• IC Killzone Tiff Lab (15-minute session timing)
• Perpetual Liquidity Levels and liquidation maps
• IC and Smart Money systems (liquidity-collection / order-block approach)
• ARC candles (momentum confirmation)

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Performance metrics

• No explicit backtested performance metrics, win rates, or historical returns were presented in the video.

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Disclosures / final note from transcript

• The transcript contains no formal “not financial advice” statement or other legal disclaimer.

  “Be successful and profitable.”

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Presenter / source

• Source: YouTube video titled (Persian) “پیش بینی قیمت بیت کوین (BTC)29 بهمن 1404- نوسان BTC به‌دلیل خروج اهرم‌ معامله و ریسک‌گریزی بازار”
• Presenter: unnamed daily Bitcoin analyst / narrator (no personal name given in subtitles)

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Notes and caveats

• Several numeric values in the autogenerated subtitles are likely mis-transcribed (characters like “H”, truncated numbers). Always verify exact price levels on your charts before trading.
• The analysis is heavily technical and liquidity-based (Smart Money concepts). Confirm on-chart structure, apply appropriate risk limits, and combine with your own due diligence.