【競馬予想】馬の適性を見抜ければ期待値あるなぁ～【走法理論】

Overview

This third video in a racing analytics series explains how to tell horses apart by their running “power type”—which horses excel at explosive acceleration versus those better at sustained speed—and how this distinction can improve betting expectations beyond data alone.

The speaker argues that although horse racing increasingly relies on statistics and machine-learning models, odds can become distorted and the expected value of long shots has declined. As a result, the video frames an “analog” edge (non-data-reflected factors), such as a horse’s physical mechanics.

Core idea: classify aptitude by stride mechanics

The video presents classifying aptitude based on how a horse moves, especially the relationship between:

• Stride length
• Pitch (leg rotation frequency)

Leg-motion analysis (research basis)

Referencing research attributed to a University of Tokyo professor emeritus (focused on JRA/racecourse research), the video describes how leg-motion analysis—illustrated with circular/rotational concepts—can indicate whether a horse’s stride rotation is:

• Sharp/fast (more explosive characteristics), or
• Gradual/slow (more endurance-oriented characteristics)

The contrast is framed as:

• Fast/quick rotation → more explosive acceleration, higher energy use
• Gradual rotation → more endurance-oriented, lower energy use

Horse type classification (four practical categories)

The video proposes four categories (the names are described as arbitrarily created for convenience), based on stride + pitch and how horses use their front-leg action.

1. Speed-sustaining type (e.g., Almond Eye, Deep Impact)

   • Long, penetrating strides and efficient running
   • Weaker braking → strong on courses with wide turns and long straights
   • Can maintain top speed longer

2. High-speed burst type (e.g., Deuce, Namir)

   • Not necessarily long strides, but rapid leg rotation (“high rotation”)
   • Fast peak speed but higher energy cost
   • Strong in slow/less-rushed races where top speed is contested

3. Low-speed endurance type (e.g., Deep Bond, Jack d’Or)

   • Advances the body steadily with larger braking and less rotational power
   • Lower top speed but better stamina
   • Can lead longer under controlled pacing, but may be vulnerable to strong closers

4. Siene type (e.g., Panthalassa, Iron Barrows)

   • Small stride with a body-forward action
   • Very fatigue-resistant and least energy use
   • Often takes big early leads and holds them
   • However, with inferior top speed, can be overtaken even if not tired when gaps close

Examples and caution notes

• The video provides concrete horse examples that span both explosive and endurance profiles.
• A key warning is that stride and pitch are fundamentally different:
  • High pitch does not automatically mean short stride
  • Horses can combine stride and pitch in different ways
• The classification is presented as an aptitude indicator, not a guarantee of race performance.

How to use this for betting (practical workflow)

The suggested approach is:

1. Identify each horse’s aptitude type (explosive vs sustained).
2. Check race conditions and pacing (using footage) to see whether the horse can operate within its strengths.
3. Select targets based on whether conditions align with that running style.

Summary conclusions

• Explosive/burst types: higher top speed, but burn more energy
• Sustained-speed types: lower peak speed, but conserve energy better
• Combining these ideas with the stride/pitch classification yields the four-type framework.

Presenters / sources

• Kobayashi Kando, University of Tokyo (referenced as supervising/researching the cited work)
• University of Tokyo professor emeritus (researcher on JRA and racecourses)
• Referenced within the talk: “The Shocking Difference Between Fast Horses and High-Performing Horses”