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Почему война 2030 уже не фигура речи? Дмитрий Евстафьев | 07.01.2026

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News and Commentary

Analysis of Current Geopolitical Dynamics by Dmitry Evstafyev

The video features Dmitry Evstafyev’s analysis of the evolving conflict involving Ukraine, the United States, Europe, Russia, and Belarus, with a focus on the implications for future warfare by 2030.

Donald Trump’s Approach

  • Trump is characterized not as a pragmatist but as a trader who breaks down large geopolitical deals into smaller, more sellable packages.
  • He no longer pursues grand bargains, such as broad peace plans for Ukraine or major geopolitical rearrangements (e.g., annexing Canada or Greenland).
  • Instead, his focus is on extracting limited, tangible gains.
  • This transactional approach reflects the organizational limits of the U.S. and attempts to capitalize on fragmented opportunities rather than comprehensive solutions.

U.S. National Security Strategy Under Trump

  • Known as the “core five” (or “nuclear five”), this strategy is unconventional and divisive within the American political establishment.
  • It aims to fracture the Euro-Atlantic alliance by isolating American Euro-Atlanticists from their European counterparts, thereby weakening transatlantic support networks.
  • Trump’s strategy demands that Europe pay its own debts and reduce reliance on U.S. military aid, especially regarding Ukraine, where funding for aid packages is increasingly strained.
  • The strategy serves more as an ideological tool for internal U.S. political struggles than as a unifying national policy.

European Political Elites’ Response

  • European leaders such as Merkel, Macron, and Ursula von der Leyen demonstrate a poor understanding of the harsh geopolitical realities, often treating ongoing crises as temporary fluctuations.
  • Some countries, like Belgium, express concern over economic impacts and show willingness to resist further financial burdens despite ideological opposition to Russia.
  • Overall, European elites are slow to adapt and require more time to grasp and respond to evolving challenges.

Implications for Ukraine and NATO

  • There is no genuine peace plan involving Zelensky and Euro-Atlanticists; the current strategy is to continue the war, possibly with intermittent pauses.
  • The U.S. is unlikely to support further large-scale aid packages due to budget constraints and political calculations.
  • The ongoing conflict and political shifts may lead to the decline or transformation of NATO as the U.S. blocks its traditional role.
  • Public opinion in Europe is expected to shift significantly due to the prolonged conflict.

The Prospect of War by 2030

  • The conflict is expected to escalate, potentially moving onto European soil if the Eastern front is lost.
  • Future warfare will likely involve direct confrontation with the Union State of Russia and Belarus, not just proxy forces.
  • This represents a new, more dangerous phase of conflict within NATO and EU territories themselves, signaling a fundamental change in European security dynamics.
  • Surviving until 2030 requires acknowledging these realities and preparing for a different kind of war.

Presenter

  • Dmitry Evstafyev

Original video