Video summary
14 - CASE STUDY: COMPLETE GUIDE ON TURTLE TRADING SYSTEM | Complete Trading Tutorials For Beginners
Main summary
Key takeaways
Main ideas / lessons
- Purpose of the video: Teach how to build a complete trading system by deconstructing the classic “Turtle Trading System” into its six components, and translating its rules into practical, beginner-friendly concepts.
- Core lesson from the Turtle experiment: Trading performance can be taught using a systematic, mechanical set of rules plus high discipline (not improvisation or emotion).
- Turtles’ philosophy: Trend-following—using breakout entries and volatility-adjusted risk controls—while managing positions through units, stops, and disciplined exits.
Methodology: Turtle Trading System (deconstructed into 6 components)
1) Markets
- The turtles traded futures contracts on major U.S. commodity exchanges.
- They emphasized high liquidity and larger average order sizes.
- They targeted many uncorrelated markets to improve the chance of capturing big trends.
- Key idea: Their approach is trend-following, so broader market coverage increases the odds of catching major moves.
2) Position sizing (volatility-based, “unit” system)
Goal: Normalize risk across markets with different volatilities so dollar movement is comparable at the portfolio level.
- Use volatility-based position sizing based on ATR (Average True Range):
- Step 1: Compute n = 20-day ATR for the market.
- Step 2: Convert to dollar volatility:
dollar volatility = n × (dollars per tick/point)
- Step 3: Apply the 1% rule:
- “1 unit” corresponds to risking 1% of total capital (risk per unit).
- Step 4: Compute unit size:
unit size = (1% of account) / (dollar volatility)
- Total position size:
position size = unit size × number of units
- The turtles built positions in pieces called “units.”
- A key risk management feature: units are the standardized risk measure.
Portfolio risk limits (“maximum units” caps across 4 levels)
- Level 1 (single market): max 4 units
- Level 2 (closely correlated markets together): max 6 units
- Level 3 (loosely correlated markets together): max 10 units
- Level 4 (direction risk): max 10 units per direction (long or short)
Money management adjustment (2:1 ratio rule)
- After wins/losses, adjust the notional account size used for sizing:
- If account changes by X%, adjust notional account by 2X%.
- Examples:
- Down 10% → reduce notional account by 20% until recovered.
- Up 10% → increase notional account by 20%.
3) Entries (breakout systems: System 1 and System 2)
- A breakout means price exceeds the highest high or lowest low of a lookback window.
- The turtles enter on the same trading day when the breakout occurs:
- They do not wait for the next day.
- For opening gaps, they enter at the opening price.
System 1 (short-term breakout)
- If price exceeds 20-day high → buy 1 unit (long)
- If price drops below 20-day low → sell 1 unit (short)
System 2 (long-term breakout)
- If price exceeds 55-day high → buy 1 unit
- (Note: one subtitle mentions “50-day” in a place, but context indicates the standard Turtle long breakout window.)
- If price drops below 55-day low → sell 1 unit
Adding units (pyramiding rule tied to volatility)
- After the initial unit entry:
- Add one more unit whenever price moves half of n in the favorable direction.
- Repeat until reaching the maximum units limit (notably, up to 4 units in the example).
- Example:
- Entry = $100, n = 4 → half-n = $2
- When price moves to $102 → add another unit
- Continue until max units reached.
Discipline emphasis
- The video stresses that profits often come from only a few big winners, so missing entries can materially hurt yearly results.
- Rule mindset: follow entry logic without emotion.
4) Stops (exit losing trades via N-based trailing stops)
- Stops are based on N (ATR-based volatility), aligned with short-term market volatility.
Initial stop placement
- For a long trade: stop is N away from entry
- (Subtitle examples imply 2N = $92 from $100 with n=4, consistent with the specific computation shown.)
- For a short trade: stop is above entry.
Trailing stop mechanism as units are added
- When adding units every half N, move the stop by half N as well:
- long stop moves up; short stop moves down.
“Mental stops”
- The turtles used mental (not broker-placed) stops:
- if the stop level is hit, they must exit with no exception.
Example (long):
- Entry $100, n=4
- Initial stop example placed at $92 (2N below entry)
- After adding a unit at $102, stop trails up accordingly
- Then shown further as third unit at $104 with stop moved to $96
5) Exits (take profits on winning trades using additional breakout-like rules)
- The video highlights a common trend-following error: taking profits too early after breakouts (since many breakouts fail and later winners matter).
- Exit rules depend on System 1 vs System 2:
System 1 exit
- Long trades: exit at 10-day low
- Short trades: exit at 10-day high
System 2 exit
- Long trades: exit at 20-day low
- Short trades: exit at 20-day high
6) Rules (7 strict Turtle rules compiled)
- Risk management rule
- Do not enter too many trades.
- Risk more than 20% of total account equity is prohibited.
- Money management rule
- Apply the 2:1 ratio rule to notional account size after major wins/losses.
- Trade management rule
- After first unit, add 1 unit each time price moves half of n in the correct direction.
- Continue until reaching 4 units (as described).
- Buy strength / sell weakness
- If signals appear together, buy the strongest market(s) and sell the weakest in the group.
- Never use market orders
- Only limit orders; learn how to get filled smartly with them.
- Never chase the fast market
- If limit orders don’t fill during a fast move, avoid panic/FOMO.
- Wait for stabilization, then reassess.
- Do not take premature profits
- Exiting too early can cause major gains to “vanish.”
- Disciplined waiting for the specified low/high exit windows is emphasized.
Speakers / sources featured (as named in the subtitles)
- Narrator / course instructor (speaker not named)
- Richard Dennis
- Bill Ehart (spelled “Bill Eard” in parts of the subtitles)
- Jerry Parker
- Mentioned/Referenced: Richard Danis (appears to be a subtitle error for Richard Dennis)
- Mentions of the “turtle traders” / “students” (the 13 recruits), but no additional individual names are provided beyond Jerry Parker.