The World Is Running Out of Copper... I’m Buying These 3 Stocks

Copper market tightness / macro setup (key drivers & numbers)

• LME copper inventories: ~200,000 tons “left” in London Metal Exchange warehouses; about half already spoken for.
• Inventory drawdown: inventories have fallen for 42 straight trading days (longest streak since 2014).
• DRC (Congo) supply shock: DRC banned exports of copper & cobalt concentrate on Aug 6; described as affecting roughly ~1/5 of output.
• Chile supply downgrade: Chile expected to produce ~2.6% less this year vs. last year; output described as ~5.5 million tons below 2018 levels.
  • Canelkco expansion pushed to 2029 after a seismic event.
  • Antofagasta cut guidance.
• Acid constraint: about ~17% of global copper uses a sulfuric-acid process.
  • China banned acid exports in May.
  • A February closure (described as already ongoing) took out ~half of seaborne sulfur shipments.
• US supply inflow: the US pulled in >200,000 tons of refined copper in July alone; said to be the biggest month in 12 years.

“Backwardation” / urgency premium (explicit spread numbers)

• Normal commodity curve: future prices usually cost more due to storage + financing.
• Current condition: buyers pay an immediate-delivery premium (backwardation).

Spread / premium levels mentioned:

• End of July: ~$34/ton
• Aug 11: ~$27/ton
• Mid-previous week: $434/ton

• This week: $545/ton

• The narrator says the last time the spread was this wide was a 2021 squeeze that nearly forced exchange action.

Global production / demand implications

• Global mine production: down 1.6% over the first five months of the year.
• International Copper Study Group (ICSG): refined production expected to rise only ~0.4% for the full year (as stated).
• Performance history: copper “marched higher” +46% over 12 months.
• Supply growth constraint claim: new supply requires ~10–15 years + permits.

Demand side claim:

• Data centers: ~27–33 tons copper per 1 MW capacity.
• Mention of BHP building 180 MW that “ate” >2,000 tons of copper (per the subtitle).
• International Energy Agency (IEA): mines will cover only about 70% of what the world needs by 2035 (per the subtitle).

Policy / tariff “wild card” (explicit recommendation/catalyst logic)

• US Section 232 tariff (50%) effective April covers: copper pipe, wire, rod, and sheet (not refined cathode).
• Commerce recommended a phased tariff on copper cathode:
  • 15% starting in January
  • stepping up to 30% the following year
• White House decision deadline was 7 weeks ago (as of the video), but not yet ruled.
• The narrator’s trade math: if the cathode tariff is enacted, US copper could be worth ~15% more per pound vs Rotterdam (benchmark stated as Rotterdam).

Copper futures / technical framework (step-by-step style cues)

Chart-based framework described (using daily copper futures, ticker “HG”):

1. Identify a supply-demand “breakout pattern”:
   • Big run up
   • consolidation (multi-week / multi-month)
   • absorption of supply
   • tightening range
   • breakout to new highs
2. Overlay a “base 1 / base 2” stacking concept (re-tightening after a pullback).
3. Pullback/confirmation logic:
   • Mentions a dip to the 50-day moving average
   • “Demand steps in” and “supply starts shrinking”
   • Expects another strong move over the next couple of months

Price targets / timelines / numbers (explicit)

• Near-term copper breakout expectation:
  • “Strong move over the next couple of months”
  • Target range: high 7s to low 8s per pound
  • Also states a “78+ per pound move” (timeframe not fully clear from subtitles; presented in chart discussion)
• Longer-term miner catalyst:
  • Copper could reach $10 to $12 per pound over the next two years.
• Key contract sizing:
  • Copper futures contract represents 25,000 pounds.
  • Financing/size example given: ~$150k–$160k position value for a small move (implied by “do the math” after “6–12 bucks a pound”).

Investing strategy / recommendations (explicit)

• Recommendation: buy copper exposure via one of:
  • Copper futures (already traded; closed before expiration)
  • Copper ETF
  • Copper mining stocks (three named)
• Risk framing/caution implied:
  • Acknowledges uncertainty (e.g., “what’s happening in Iran” and how delays “create fear”).
• Stated performance:
  • The narrator says they were long “a few July copper futures contracts,” closed before expiration, netting ~$30k–$35k.

Copper ETF and stocks mentioned (tickers + thesis)

ETF

• CPER: “United States copper index fund” (buy ETF if not using futures).

Copper mining stocks (3 “favorites”)

1. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

   • Thesis points:
     • “Grassburg” (mine) “finally coming back”
     • Throughput doubled between April and June
     • Cost guidance down to ~$1.90/lb (stated)
     • Mentions copper price “selling at 6 bucks a pound” to argue for “huge margins”
     • Chart: multi-quarter consolidation “coiled spring” breakout setup

2. Southern Copper (SCCO)

   • Thesis points:
     • “Record revenue, record margins” (quarter referenced)
     • Net income up 71.6% despite 3.5% less copper produced YoY (as stated)
     • Declared dividend: $3.23 (subtitle phrasing: “three uh $323 dividend”)
     • Cash cost per pound “collapsed to like 5 cents” (stated)
     • Chart: compression/consolidation breakout setup similar to FCX

3. TCO Mines (TGB) (rebranded to “Treker Metals” in June per subtitle)

   • Thesis points:
     • “Pure North American play” (no Africa): Gibraltar, British Columbia, Florence, Copper, Arizona
     • Cost per pound: ~$2.41 (stated)
     • Mentions “price collars at $5.40/lb expired in June,” so the company captures full profit at higher prices
     • Chart: final consolidation after prior supply “stuck” period (described as those underwater around $8–$8.50)

Copper miners ETF for diversification

• COX: “copper miners ETF” that “owns all three of these stocks, plus dozens more” (ticker shown as Cox in subtitles; exact ticker may be unclear due to transcription, but “COX/Cox” is explicitly mentioned).

Explicit disclaimers / disclosures

• The subtitle includes a promotional “Black Ops trading service” pitch ($5/year, live mentoring).
• In the provided subtitles, a clear “not financial advice” disclaimer is not clearly presented.

Presenters / sources mentioned

• Presenter: the video narrator (name not provided in subtitles).
• Organizations / sources cited: London Metal Exchange (LME), DRC/DR Congo (government action), Chile (production/output guidance and companies mentioned), International Copper Study Group, International Energy Agency, BHP, China (acid export ban), Commerce/White House (tariff process), CPER (ETF issuer implied by ticker naming), and company managements of FCX, SCCO, and TGB/Treker Metals.