Everyone Laughed at His Strategy (Until He Dominated the World Cup 12 Times)

Summary

The video presents Patrick Nill’s range-based trading approach. It says Nill left his family’s bookbinding business in 2018 to trade full time, placed in the top five of the Robbins World Cup 12 times, and was in first place “this year” with a reported return of about 300%. These are claims made by the video and have not been independently verified here.

Core Market View and Risk Rules

• The strategy assumes markets spend roughly 70% of the time ranging and 20–30% trending. The trader’s aim is to trade between areas of “fair value,” rather than predict direction.
• Never widen a stop to give a losing trade more room. Set the stop based on market structure before choosing position size, then adjust the size to fit the stop.
• Stops may be tightened as price moves in the trader’s favor and new ranges form, but should not be moved farther away.
• The video recounts a COVID-era oil trade: Nill’s team bought as oil fell from about $12–$13 per barrel to $10, $8, and $5, then closed positions after reassessing the risk. Oil later fell to –$40. The example illustrates the danger of adding to a losing position and underestimating risk.

Chart Framework

• A P is a strong move up followed by a range; a B is a strong move down followed by a range.
• Use the 4-hour chart for context and the 15-minute chart for trading decisions. The 5- or 3-minute chart may be used for execution precision.
• Wait for three touches before treating a range as valid. On a 15-minute chart, a range may take at least half a day—and often a full day—to form. The approach targets one or two setups rather than frequent trades.
• Review weekly market and volume profiles. The value area high and low help identify balance and low-volume areas; a range forming at one of these levels is considered stronger.

Three Ways to Trade a Range

1. Range trade: Buy near the bottom and target the top, or sell near the top and target the bottom. The video says Nill avoids these trades if the range completes in the evening, when he would be away from the market for about eight hours.
2. Confirmed breakout: Wait for a candle to close outside the range, then for a retest of the boundary and a subsequent close beyond the breakout candle. Enter only after confirmation, often with a limit order.
3. Failed breakout and reclaim: If price breaks below a range but returns inside, consider a long near the lower boundary, with a stop just below the failed-breakout low. Nill reportedly favors this setup on the long side. The video says he trades the inverse setup—a failed breakout above the range—less often.

Stops, Targets, and Trade Management

• Place stops beyond a structural low, beyond the range, or at a market-profile level. If there is no useful reference, calculate the stop in relation to the target.
• The video says to seek a risk-to-reward ratio above 3:1 when using a wider stop. Small ranges after a large move may offer 8:1 or more. Large ranges are described as better suited to range trades than breakouts because breakout stops may be too wide.
• Target the next area of fair value, such as a prior range. When trading multiple contracts, the first partial may come off at the nearest zone; later exits depend on the setup, with the final contract potentially held toward the origin of the move. Nill reportedly often uses multiples of three contracts.
• If price is at an all-time high without prior fair value overhead, project the initial impulse one-to-one as a target.
• After three or four consecutive losses in a day, stop trading and reset the next morning.

Instruments, Tools, and Cautions

• Asset mentioned: Oil. No ticker symbols, specific traded markets, or named ETFs are given.
• The video promotes TradingView’s free Consolidation Zones Volume Delta indicator and Flux Charts’ paid Price Action Toolkit. It also mentions a 20% discount code for the paid tool.
• The video emphasizes that identifying and drawing ranges is subjective, and says Nill does not share his exact rules for drawing and resizing zones. The examples are illustrative, and the reported competition performance does not establish that the method will produce similar results for others.
• Disclosure: The video description says the content is for educational and entertainment purposes, not financial advice. It warns that forex and cryptocurrency trading is highly speculative and risky.

Presenters and Sources

The narrator/presenter is not named; the video is from Trading Notes. Patrick Nill is the trader discussed. The narrator says the material was drawn from Nill’s interviews but does not identify specific interviews. The Robbins World Cup is referenced as the trading competition.